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Building a mainstream wind i ndustry admist shale g as realities

Building a mainstream wind i ndustry admist shale g as realities. mainstream. w ind industry. shale gas. can the wind industry survive Shale Gas ?. Shale Production is up 340% since 2008, and Henry Hub prices are down 50% in the same time. Henry Hub Price.

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Building a mainstream wind i ndustry admist shale g as realities

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  1. Building amainstream wind industry admist shale gas realities mainstream wind industry shale gas

  2. can the wind industry • survive Shale Gas?

  3. Shale Production is up 340%since 2008, and Henry Hub prices are down 50%in the same time Henry Hub Price Shale Production January 2008 August 2014 Source: Energy Information Administration

  4. Falling gas prices have led to falling but volatile power prices Gas Price Energy Prices at key US Power Hubs January 2008 August 2014 Source: Energy Information Administration, Enerfax

  5. However things have not gone that bad for wind energy…

  6. Fast facts on US Wind Energy market

  7. Fast facts on US Wind Energy market + 60GW of operating capacity, across more than 900 wind projects and 45,000 utility-scale wind turbines

  8. Fast facts on US Wind Energy market + Invested over $100B across 50GW of new capacity during last decade

  9. Fast facts on US Wind Energy market + Wind was the #1 new source for electric capacity, supplying over 33% of all new power capacity during last 5 years

  10. Fast facts on US Wind Energy market + 550 active manufacturing facilities to supply components reaching over 70% domestic content in 2013

  11. wind is becoming a mainstream source of electricity

  12. Capacity, GW Oil 39 yr Hydro 46 yr Renewables 10 yr Coal 40 yr Nuclear 32 yr Gas 20 yr Source: Energy Velocity, a EDPR NA análisys, EIA

  13. the U.S. generated 4.1% of its electricity from wind in 2013, up from 3.5% in 2012

  14. 20% of electricity in states such as IA and SD and over 10% across nine states ERCOT: 10% Data Source: EIA Chart Source: AWEA U.S. Wind Industry Annual Market Report 2013

  15. and, what about Texas?

  16. # 1 in wind power • Texas • Installed capacity: 12,800 MWs • Capacity under construction in 2014: 7,000 MWs • Investment in new transmission infrastructure: $6.2 Billion • Wind penetration: up to 40% during windiest days

  17. but, what has changed over the last years to drive this growth?

  18. for the industry in general

  19. for the industry in general technology innovation

  20. Production increases exponentially with wind speed and rotor diameter The evolution of taller towers & larger generators increases production while decreasing the number of turbines per wind farm • 100MW wind farm (2007) • Tower: 80m • Rotor: 80-85m • 100MW wind farm (2014) • Tower: 100m • Rotor: ~110m 50% increase in Annual Production 360k 245k MWh MWh

  21. As blade length increases, so does production while the wind speed needed to produce a profitable project decreases Blade Length 8m +570% 21m +231% 39m +27% 44m +23% 49m +21% 54m *Avg. wind speed required to match the V110’s AEP @ 7.5 m/s (i.e., 7646 MWh): V80: 11.0 m/sV100: 8.25 m/s By adding 89% more swept area, we can produce the same amount of energy at lower wind speed sites

  22. Improved technology allows for attractive NCF at lower wind speeds opening up wind potential in previously underserved areas Regions benefit the most from the recent technology evolution Source: NREL, AWS

  23. …and while energy demand growth remained low ….

  24. There is significant pressure on coal generators 63.8 GWretired or officially announced to retire since 2010 Market analysts expect as much as 15% of the coal fleet to retire by 2025 100 GW 63.8 GW EIA Projection 50 GW 40.8 GW Announced 23.0 GW Already Retired 0 GW 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: Energy Information Administration, Energy Velocity

  25. New pockets of wind energy demand from large industrial consumers, who look for + Cheap electricity + Fixed prices of electricity for 20-25 yrs

  26. but, what is driving such growth in TX?

  27. $6.2 billion of investment in transmission infrastructure & some of the best wind resource in the country

  28. however, challenges remain

  29. Challenge #1 • volatile market • difficult to plan

  30. Installed U.S. Wind Energy Capacity Source: AWEA U.S. Wind Industry Third Quarter 2013 Market Report

  31. 70% of wind benefits in Republican districts, but it does not translate into R leadership support

  32. Challenge #2 • Myths diluting • our brand

  33. Wind brand is getting diluted • now seems that • everything • isclean notgreen

  34. Renewable energy subsidies are dwarfed by those for fossil fuels Renewable energy PTC Tax benefits for oil & gas Natural Gas Credit for unconventional fuel (shale, etc) Source: Congressional Research Service, May 2010

  35. Windvs Birds • 3-6 birds per wind-powered megawatt are lost annually in the U.S, 186K – 372K per yrbased on current installed capacity National Academy of Sciences found less than 3 in 100,000 (i.e., .0003%) of human-caused bird fatalities are attributed to wind energy • By contrast, FWS has estimated: • Collisions with buildings kill 97 to 976 million birds annually • Collisions with high-tension lines kill at least 130 million birds per yr • Collisions with communicationstowers kill 4-5 million, but could be as high as 50 million birds annually; • Carskill 80 million birds annually • Environmental toxins including pesticides kill more than 72 million birds annually;

  36. Challenge #3 • Texas?

  37. Texas generation fleet emits less CO2 per MWh than the average state… US Average High WY WV ND CO2 emissions per MWh of electricity generated MT NM UT Indiana KY MO AL Pennsylvania OK NE US Average IA KS AZ CO HI WI Ohio Texas AR IL MI NV AK MS Florida NH SC LA GA NC MN TN RI DE MA SD VA MD NJ NY CT WA ME ID OR DC CA VT Low High Electricity Consumption per Capita

  38. …however, Texas leads the nation in carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation Million metric tons of carbon dioxide emitted in 2010 Texas Ohio Pennsylvania Florida Indiana US Average

  39. water shortage meets carbon emissions Coal Carbon Emissions per MWh Natural Gas Wind Nuclear Solar Water Consumption per MWh

  40. water usage for energy generation Water Consumption over Plant Life Cycle Gallons consumed per MWh generated Nuclear 8% Industrial / Mining 12% Domestic & Commercial Pulverized Coal 39% Irrigation & Livestock Natural Gas CC Solar PV 41% Power Generation Wind Note: Water consumption including fuel cycle, plant construction & demolition, and plant operation Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

  41. Texas is starting on the path to lowering both emissions and water consumption, but much work remains Texas 2013 Power Generation, TWh 335 Low CO2 emissions AND low water consumption 10% High CO2 emissions and/or high water consumption 90% Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Other Renewables Total Generation

  42. Whatcan Texas do?

  43. Doing nothing is the worst path forward • “You can’t be neutral in a moving train”

  44. Energy efficiency and mix • Transmission infrastructure • Carbon price • Responsible siting • Leveling the playing field

  45. Thanks

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