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Christopher Potter , NASA Ames Research Center, cpotter@mail.arc.nasa

Recent Progress in Measuring and Modeling Patterns of Biomass and Soil Carbon Pools Across the Amazon Basin. Christopher Potter , NASA Ames Research Center, cpotter@mail.arc.nasa.gov Yadvinder Mahli , University of Edinburgh y.malhi@ed.ac.uk

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Christopher Potter , NASA Ames Research Center, cpotter@mail.arc.nasa

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  1. Recent Progress in Measuring and Modeling Patterns of Biomass and Soil Carbon Pools Across the Amazon Basin Christopher Potter, NASA Ames Research Center, cpotter@mail.arc.nasa.gov Yadvinder Mahli, University of Edinburgh y.malhi@ed.ac.uk Presentation for the III LBA Scientific Conference 27-29 July, 2004 Brasília, Brazil Main Questions: What are current uncertainties in aboveground & belowground carbon pools for the Amazon basin? What are current uncertainties in ecosystem carbon sinks for the Amazon basin?

  2. Outline for the Presentation Pre-LBA (Prior to 1996): Early inventory estimates and modeling studies of aboveground carbon pools for the Amazon basin Early modeling studies of ecosystem carbon sinks for the Amazon basin LBA Contributions: Incrementally improved estimates of aboveground and belowground carbon pools for the Amazon basin Integration of field measurements with modeling studies of ecosystem carbon sinks for the Amazon basin Future Steps: Future inventory and integration studies of aboveground and belowground carbon pools for the Amazon basin Future integration studies of ecosystem carbon sinks for the Amazon basin

  3. Review and Synthesis Methods Automated Search of Official LBA Publications List and Beija-Flor: Keywords “carbon” and (“pool” or “storage” or “stock”) or “carbon” and “sink” Targeted personal contacts with LBA investigators Scope of the review: Amazon drainage basin or Legal Amazon area-wide studies Focus: Controls by climate, soils, and land cover mapping on regional carbon pools and sinks

  4. Selected LBA DIS Search Results • Andreae, M.O; Almeida, S.S.; Artaxo, P.; Brandão, C.; Carswell, F.E.; Ciccioli, P.; Culf, A.; Esteves, J.L.; Gash, J.; Grace, J.; Kabat, P.; Lelieveld, J.; Malhi, Y.; Manzi, A.O.; Meixner, F. X.; Nobre, A.; Nobre, C.; Ruivo, M.A.L.; Silva-Dias, M.A.; Stefani, P.; Valentini, R.; Jouanne, J. & Waterloo, M. 2002. Biogeochemical cycling of carbon, water, energy, trace gases and aerosols in Amazonia: The LBA-EUSTACH experiments. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107, D20, 8066 - 8091. doi:10.1029/2001JD000524. • Foley, J.A., A. Botta, M.T. Coe, and M.H. Costa. 2002. The El Niño / Southern Oscillation and the climate, ecosystem and rivers of Amazonia. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,doi:10.1029/2002GB001872. • Hirsch, A.I., W.S. Little, R.A. Houghton, N.A. Scott, and J.D. White. 2004. The net carbon flux due to deforestation and forest re-growth in the Brazilian Amazon: analysis using a process-based model. Global Change Biology, 10:908-924. • Houghton, R.A.; Lawrence, K.T.; Hackler, J.L; & Brown, S. 2001. The spatial distribution of forest biomass in the Brazilian Amazon: a comparison of estimates. Global Change Biology, 7: 731-746. • Houghton, R.A.; Skole, D.L.; Nobre, C.A.; Hackler, J.L.; Lawrence, K.T. & Chomentowski, W.H. 2000. Annual fluxes or carbon from deforestation and regrowth in the Brazilian Amazon. Nature, 403(6767): 301-304. • Laurance, W.F.; Fearnside, P.M.; Laurance, S.G.; Delamonica, P.; Lovejoy, T.E.; Rankin-de Merona, J.; Chambers, J.Q. & Gascon, C. 1999. Relationship between soils and Amazon forest biomass: A landscape-scale study. Forest Ecology and Management, 118: 127-138 • Malhi, Y. et al., 2004. The above-ground coarse wood productivity of 104 Neotropical forest plots, Global Change Biology, 10: 563-591. • Nepstad, D.; Lefebvre, P.; Silva Jr., U.L.; Tomasella, J.; Schlesinger, P.; Solorzano, L.; Moutinho, P. & Ray, D. 2004. Amazon drought and its implications for forest flammability and tree growth: a basin-wide analysis.  Global Change Biology, 10: 704-717. • Nobre, C.A. 2001. Amazônia: fonte ou sumidouro de carbono? In: Brasil. Ministério do Meio Ambiente. Causas e Dinâmicas do Desmatamento da Amazônia. Brasília, MMA, p. 197-224, • Potter, C.; Genovese, V.B.; Klooster, S.; Bobo, M. & Torregrosa, A. 2001. Biomass burning losses of carbon estimated from ecosystem modeling and satellite data analysis for the Brazilian Amazon region. Atmospheric Environment, 35: 1773-1781. • Potter, C.; Klooster, S.; de Carvalho, C.R.; Genovese, V.B.; Torregrosa, A.; Dungan, J.; Bobo, M. & Coughlan, J. 2001. Modeling seasonal and interannual variability in ecosystem carbon cycling for the Brazilian Amazon region. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 106: 10423-10446. • Santos, J.R.; Lacruz, M.S.P.; Araujo, L.S. & Keil, M. 2002. Savanna and tropical rainforest biomass estimation and spatialization using JERS-1 data. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 23, 1217-1229. • Tian H, Melillo JM, Kicklighter DW, McGuire AD, Helfrich III J, Moore III B, Vörösmarty CJ. 2000. Climatic and biotic controls on annual carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems. Global Ecology and Biogeography 9, 315-336.

  5. Pre-LBA (Years Prior to 1996) Hypotheses Aboveground carbon pools Mean aboveground pool estimate for Brazilian Amazon is 70 Pg C in forest biomass, with high to low biomass running E to W through central Amazonia. Interpolation based on sites is generally limited to mature or primary forests. Clearings or openings within forested regions were generally not recognized in the ground-based approaches (the 44 sites and RADAMBRASIL). On the other hand, satellite based maps (e.g., DeFries and Potter) include observations to include cleared areas. Houghton, R.A., Lawrence, K.T., Hackler, J.L, and Brown, S. 2001. The spatial distribution of forest biomass in the Brazilian Amazon: a comparison of estimates. Global Change Biology, 7: 731-746.

  6. Pre-LBA (Years Prior to 1996) Hypotheses Belowground carbon pools Surface Soil Carbon Pools Belowground pool estimates for Brazilian Amazon range from 47-74 Pg C, depending on method of interpolation of RADAM soil carbon data bases. Impact of land use change on soil carbon storage is a major uncertainty in the existing regional inventories of belowground pool changes. Moraes, J.L., C.C. Cerri, J.M. Melillo, D. Kicklighter, C. Neill, D.L. Skole, and P.A. Steudler. 1995. Soil carbon stocks of the Brazilian Amazon basin. Soil Science Society of America Journal. 59:244-247. Potter, C. S., E. A. Davidson, S. A. Klooster, D. C. Nepstad, G. H. de Negreiros, and V. Brooks. 1998. Regional application of an ecosystem production model for studies of biogeochemistry in Brazilian Amazonia. Global Change Biology. 4(3):315-334.

  7. Pre-LBA (Years Prior to 1996) Hypotheses Regional carbon fluxes Regional patterns in rainfall and solar radiation determine net carbon sink fluxes. Total NPP is ca. 5 Pg C per yr for the Brazilian Amazon (Potter et al. 1998). Potter, C. S., E. A. Davidson, S. A. Klooster, D. C. Nepstad, G. H. de Negreiros, and V. Brooks. (1998) Regional application of an ecosystem production model for studies of biogeochemistry in Brazilian Amazonia. Global Change Biology. 4(3):315-334. Interannual temperature and rainfall interact to determine net carbon sink fluxes in the Amazon basin. El Niño years result in regional source fluxes of ca. 0.2 Pg C per yr, whereas other years result in regional sink fluxes of ca. 0.5 Pg C per yr (Tian et al., 1998), notably lower than an earlier estimate by Fan et al. (1990) at regional sink fluxes of ca. 1.2 Pg C per yr. Fan S.M., Wofsy S.C., Bakwin P.S., Jacob D.J., Fitzjarrald D.R. (1990) Atmosphere-biosphere exchange of CO2 and O3 in the central Amazon forest, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 16,851-16,864. Tian H., Melillo J.M., Kicklighter D.W., McGuire A.D., Helfrich III J.V.K., Moore III B., Vörösmarty C.J. (1998) Effect of interannual climate variability on carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems. Nature 396, 664-667.

  8. Aboveground live biomass of Amazonian forests LBA Contributions and Hypotheses Aboveground carbon pools Total aboveground live biomass of Amazonian forests estimated to be 91-95 Pg C, based on over 200 forest plot measurements and interpolation with consideration of soil fertility effects. Wood, D., Y. Malhi, T. R. Baker et al. The regional variation of above-ground live biomass in old-growth Amazonian forests. (In press) Total aboveground live biomass of Brazilian Amazonian forests estimated to be 84 Pg C, based on ecosystem modeling (CARLUC, Carbon and Land-Use Change) Hirsch, A.I., W.S. Little, R.A. Houghton, N.A. Scott, and J.D. White. 2004. The net carbon flux due to deforestation and forest re-growth in the Brazilian Amazon: analysis using a process-based model. Global Change Biology, 10:908-924. Total aboveground live biomass of Brazilian Amazonian forests estimated to be 60 Pg C, based on ecosystem modeling (NASA-CASA) using moderate resolution (8-km) remote sensing of vegetation greenness and NPP and soil fertility effects. Potter, C.; Genovese, V.B.; Klooster, S.; Bobo, M. & Torregrosa, A. 2001. Biomass burning losses of carbon estimated from ecosystem modeling and satellite data analysis for the Brazilian Amazon region. Atmospheric Environment, 35: 1773-1781.

  9. LBA Contributions and Hypotheses Regional carbon fluxes During an El Niño year, there is an anomalous source of CO2 from Amazon ecosystems, mainly due to a decreased net primary production (NPP) in the north of the basin. During a La Niña year, there is an anomalous sink of CO2 from Amazon ecosystems, mainly due to a increased net primary production (NPP) in the north of the basin. Foley, J.A., A. Botta, M.T. Coe, and M.H. Costa. 2002. The El Niño / Southern Oscillation and the climate, ecosystem and rivers of Amazonia. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,doi:10.1029/2002GB001872. Total NPP is ca. 4-5 Pg C per yr. Annual NEP for the Brazilian Amazon is predicted to range from –0.4 Pg C yr -1 (net CO2 source during an El Niño year) to 0.5 Pg C yr -1 (net CO2 sink during a La Niña year), with large interannual variability over the states of Pará, Maranhao, and Amazonas. Potter, C.; Klooster, S.; de Carvalho, C.R.; Genovese, V.B.; Torregrosa, A.; Dungan, J.; Bobo, M. & Coughlan, J. 2001. Modeling seasonal and interannual variability in ecosystem carbon cycling for the Brazilian Amazon region. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 106: 10423-10446. Hirsch, A.I., W.S. Little, R.A. Houghton, N.A. Scott, and J.D. White. 2004. The net carbon flux due to deforestation and forest re-growth in the Brazilian Amazon: analysis using a process-based model. Global Change Biology, 10:908-924.

  10. Future Steps • Integration studies of aboveground carbon pools for the Amazon basin • Reconciliation of ground-based, satellite, and ecosystem modeling estimates of standing biomass • Assessment of significance and impacts of soil controls on biomass allocation • Integration studies of ecosystem carbon sinks for the Amazon basin • Validation of model predictions using Amazon tower flux data sets • Integration of continuous land cover change maps into ecosystem modeling estimates • Synthesis of newest satellite products for surface climate variations over time • Assessment of significance and impacts of solar radiance changes over time

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