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SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE, GROUND SHAKING, GROUND FAILURE (LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES), AFTERSHOCKS. EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (the potential disaster agents). LOCATION OF STRUCTURE. IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS. EXPOSURE MODEL. QUALITY OF DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION.
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SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE, GROUND SHAKING, GROUND FAILURE (LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES), AFTERSHOCKS EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS(the potential disaster agents)
LOCATION OF STRUCTURE IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS EXPOSURE MODEL
QUALITY OF DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE RESISTING SYSTEM VULNERABILITY IS THE ULTIMATE CAUSE OF RISK VULNERABILITY MODEL
35 30 25 UNREINFORCED MASONRY, BRICK OR STONE 20 REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH UNREINFORCED WALLS 15 10 REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH REINFORCEDWALLS STEEL FRAME ALL METAL & WOOD FRAME 5 0 V VI VII VIII IX CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND SHAKING MEAN DAMAGE RATIO, % OF REPLACEMENT VALUE INTENSITY
An element’s vulnerability (fragility) is the result of a community’s actions or policies that change its resistance to ground shaking
CAUSES OF DAMAGE INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN EARTHQUAKES FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES “DISASTER LABORATORIES” LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
AN INTRAPLATE EARTHQUAKE 400 KM FROM PLATE BOUNDARY-- “A SURPRISE”
GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE • MAGNITUDE 7.7 • JUST BEFORE 0900 ON A HOLIDAY (51st Republic Day) • 20,000 DEAD • 167,000 INJURED • 400,000 HOMES DESTROYED • 600,000 HOMELESS
STRICKEN URBAN CENTERS • BHUJ, (150,000), 20 km from epicenter • Devastated • AHMEDABAD (5.6 MILLION) • 50 multi-story buildings collapsed
Over 1 million structures damaged or destroyed. ESTIMATED LOSS: $5.5 BILLION
The impacted area was re-equipped with all the basic facilities along with state-of-the-art upgrades; Bhuj, for examples, now has a better hospital, town and first-aid center
A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community torespond without external help when three continuums: 1) people,2)community(i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3)complex events (e.g., earthquakes, floods,…) intersect at a point in space and time.
THE REASONS ARE . . . • When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure can beLOST for long periods.
THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community is UN-PREPAREDfor what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.
THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community has NODISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO orWARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.
THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective mannerto the full spectrum of expected and unexpectedemergency situations.
THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER ISEARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE
RISK ASSESSMENT • VULNERABILITY • EXPOSURE • EVENT • COST • BENEFIT EARTH-QUAKES EXPECTED LOSS POLICY ADOPTION • CONSEQUENCES POLICY ASSESSMENT MOVING TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE
QUAKE HAZARDS • PEOPLE & BLDGS. • VULNERABILITY • LOCATION • PREPAREDNESS • PROTECTION • EARLY WARNING • EMERGENCY RESPONSE • RECOVERY and • RECONSTRUCTION EARTHQUAKE RISK POLICY OPTIONS ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE INDIA’S COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL OF THE LIKELY AND UNLIKELY HAZARDS AND RISKS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE AGAINST COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF FUNCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE PREPARATION OF DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE