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Networking in 5-50 Years – applications and requirements

Networking in 5-50 Years – applications and requirements. Henning Schulzrinne Columbia University hgs@cs.columbia.edu. Overview. Infrastructure, once established, tends to change very slowly Hypothesis: all major communications modes have been explored

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Networking in 5-50 Years – applications and requirements

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  1. Networking in 5-50 Years – applications and requirements Henning Schulzrinne Columbia University hgs@cs.columbia.edu Future of Networking

  2. Overview • Infrastructure, once established, tends to change very slowly • Hypothesis: • all major communications modes have been explored • replacement dedicated  IP largely complete • Networking lacks obvious drivers of other technologies: • energy costs, pollution  fuel cells • higher speed  jet engine • New applications not necessarily bandwidth-driven, but cost-driven • Reliability is the real QoS Future of Networking

  3. Networking is getting into middle years Future of Networking

  4. Standardization • Really two facets of standardization: • public, interoperable description of protocol, but possibly many (Tanenbaum) • reduction to 1-3 common technologies • LAN: Arcnet, tokenring, ATM, FDDI, DQDB, …  Ethernet • WAN: IP, X.25, OSI  IP • Have reached phase 2 in most cases, with RPC (SOAP) and presentation layer (XML) most recent 'conversions' Future of Networking

  5. Technologies at ~30 years • Other technologies at similar maturity level: • air planes: 1903 – 1938 (Stratoliner) • cars: 1876 – 1908 (Model T) • analog telephones: 1876 – 1915 (transcontinental telephone) • railroad: 1800s -- ? Future of Networking

  6. Observations on progress • 1960s: military  professional  consumer • now, often reversed • Oscillate: convergence  divergence • continued convergence clearly at physical layer • niches larger  support separate networks • Communications technologies rarely disappear (as long as operational cost is low): • exceptions: • telex, telegram, semaphores  fax, email • X.25 + OSI, X.400  IP, SMTP • analog cell phones Future of Networking

  7. History of networking • History of networking = non-network applications migrate • postal & intracompany mail, fax  email, IM • broadcast: TV, radio • interactive voice/video communication  VoIP • information access  web, P2P • disk access  iSCSI, Fiberchannel-over-IP Future of Networking

  8. Network evolution • Only three modes, now thoroughly explored: • packet/cell-based • message-based (application data units) • session-based (circuits) • Replace specialized networks • left to do: embedded systems • need cost(CPU + network) < $10 • cars • industrial (manufacturing) control • commercial buildings (lighting, HVAC, security; now LONworks) • remote controls, light switches • keys replaced by biometrics Future of Networking

  9. New applications • New bandwidth-intensive applications • Reality-based networking • (security) cameras • Distributed games often require only low-bandwidth control information • current game traffic ~ VoIP • Computation vs. storage vs. communications • communications cost has decreased less rapidly than storage costs Future of Networking

  10. Commercial access cost (T1) Future of Networking

  11. Transit cost (OC-3, NY – London) Future of Networking

  12. Disk storage cost (IDE) Future of Networking

  13. Transition of networking • Maturity  cost dominates • can get any number of bits anywhere, but at considerable cost and complexity • casually usable bit density still very low • Specialized  commodity • OPEX (= people) dominates • installed and run by 'amateurs' • need low complexity, high reliability Future of Networking

  14. Security challenges • DOS, security attacks  permissions-based communications • only allow modest rates without asking • effectively, back to circuit-switched • Higher-level security services  more application-layer access via gateways, proxies, … • User identity • problem is not availability, but rather over-abundance Future of Networking

  15. Scaling • Scaling is only backbone problem • Depends on network evolution: • continuing addition of AS to flat space  deep trouble • additional hierarchy Future of Networking

  16. QoS • QoS is meaningless to users • care about service availability  reliability • as more and more value depends on network services, can't afford random downtimes Future of Networking

  17. Wildcards • Quantum computing • Teleportation Future of Networking

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