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Systematic analysis of frontier energy collider data

This research focuses on a systematic analysis of frontier energy collider data in Hamburg, Germany and Geneva, Switzerland. The game strategy and tactics implications are explored, including the search for new physics such as heavy gauge bosons, technicolor, large extra dimensions, leptoquarks, supersymmetry, fourth generation fermions, and compositeness. The values of the 105 MSSM parameters are also considered in the search for discovery.

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Systematic analysis of frontier energy collider data

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  1. Systematic analysis of frontier energy collider data Hamburg, Germany Geneva, Switzerland The Game Strategy and tactics Implications Batavia, IL Bruce Knuteson MIT Moriond QCD 17 March 2005

  2. The first sign of new physics will come from: Heavy gauge bosons Technicolor Large extra dimensions Leptoquarks Supersymmetry Fourth generation fermions Compositeness Something else 7 11 21 3 36 5 6 11

  3. The values of the 105 MSSM parameters are:

  4. “Discovery” with a typical search Remember that George will guess wrong But let’s say George is very lucky and guesses close . . . true signal George's guess George's “modified” guess y an "event" (pp collision) x

  5. How should George interpret this?(Will anyone believe him?) Moral:Any “successful” dedicated search is bound to end up in a set of highly sculpted cuts, since the original guess will be wrong. true signal George's guess George's “modified” guess y an "event" (pp collision) x

  6. The Game Maximize chance for discovery before LHC turn-on Maximize chance for discovery after LHC turn-on

  7. Strategy and tactics in brief

  8. 1 Vista Model-independent search for new large cross section physics Gross features, bulks of distributions

  9. Define physics objects Simulate detector response e  Filter events of interest  b p p  j  Fit for experimental & theoretical fudge factors (mis)Id reconstructed Estimate backgrounds true

  10. toy example

  11. 2 Sleuth Quasi-model-independent search for new high-pT, small cross section physics Excess on high-pT tails, with rigorous computation of trials factor

  12. # events Sleuth@DØ H1 General Search Phys.Rev.D 62:092004,2000; hep-ex/0006011 Phys.Rev.D 64:012004,2001; hep-ex/0011067 Phys.Rev.Lett.86:3712,2001; hep-ex/0011071 Phys.Lett.B 602:14-30,2004; hep-ex/0408044

  13. 3 Quaero Model-dependent hypothesis testing Rigorous, fast, transparent, robust, and automatic testing of specific hypotheses

  14. TurboSim A fast simulation that tunes itself to any experiment’s full simulation √TurboSim@ TurboSim Full Simulation: 10 s/event GeantSim TurboSim: 10 ms/event

  15. 4 Bard Model construction Automate theorists

  16. Use Quaero to determine parameters & quantify goodness of fit Hint from Vista or Sleuth e+e- bb  pT Generate many possible signals Order resulting list

  17. Legend • published • technically complete • work ongoing  stalled Current scorecard Vista Quaero                        Bard        Algorithm *no collaboration commitments

  18. Implications

  19. vs. There could be a clear winner

  20. Astro is ahead of HEP

  21. Bio is ahead of HEP

  22. PHOBOS nucl-ex/0406021 nucl-ex/0301017 HIP is ahead of HEP

  23. We are beginning to automate the scientific method

  24. Summary You can’t guess right guaranteed surprise • In light of this, a few of us are taking a different approach • Gather all data • Look at themVista(model independent) • Look at them againSleuth(quasi model independent) • Automate hypothesis testingQuaero(model dependent) • Interpret underlying physicsBard(model construction) • Systematically maximize chance for discovery Thanks to:

  25. Appendix

  26. Bard e+e- bb  pT

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