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Hydro Power Projections

Hydro Power Projections. Jennifer Palmer Advisor: Peter Simmons February 24 th 2005. Introduction & Current Position. Energy available from water flowing in a river or in a pipe from a reservoir usually extracted using a turbine to generate electricity

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Hydro Power Projections

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  1. Hydro Power Projections Jennifer Palmer Advisor: Peter Simmons February 24th 2005

  2. Introduction & Current Position • Energy available from water flowing in a river or in a pipe from a reservoir usually extracted using a turbine to generate electricity • Hydroelectric technology can be regarded as being fully commercialised • Currently 2% of UK’s total installed generating capacity is supplied by hydro • Schemes range from 1 kW - >100 MW. Large majority in Scotland and Wales. Almost all run by Scottish Power or Scottish & Southern Energy (SSE)

  3. Categories • Hydroelectric schemes fall into two categories; Large Scale = Installed capacity > 5MW Small scale = Installed capacity < 5MW • Micro hydro = Few tens of kW – not usually connected to the grid

  4. Large Scale Resources & Limitations • Growth in large scale is severely limited • Cost • Location • Concerns about environmental impact • Large area for catchments are needed • National park land • Dependant on precipitation • One new scheme proposed • Stations have a long lifetime

  5. Small Scale Resource and Limitations • 400-700MW of unexploited hydroelectric power in the UK. 80% of this in Scotland • Life time of 30 years, investment cost £1000/kW. Generate electricity for 3.5p/kWh • Short construction times • Small scale river schemes have reduced storage and generation capacity • Initial financial outlay- needed in advance • Lack of technical and procedural knowledge of developers • Multiple ownership of land, fishing and water abstraction rights

  6. Estimation Method & AssumptionsLarge Scale • Used Declared Net Capacity (DNC) figures from DUKEs 2004 • The load factor will remain the same as past analysis of 34.8% • There will be fluctuations due to annual precipitation that are not projected • There will be no significant new stations • Not including pumped storage

  7. Projections – Large scale

  8. Assumptions small scale • Planning and technical guidance is improved and available to developers • Active advertising and promotion of small scale, financial assistance for viability assessments • Past analysis of load factors is correct, average 11.6% • Rate of increase is has not already reached its maximum • No change in rate of increase for 3 years

  9. Projections – Small Scale

  10. Conclusions • Favour the gradual increase scenario, there is opportunity to out perform these figures but at the same time is not being over optimistic • Definitely a considerable resource available with virtually no technical limitations but success mainly depends on the key issues of-: • The ability to organise and educate potential small scale developers • Investment into exploring viability of potential projects

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