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Overview

Overview. Evaluating effectiveness Pollution agreements: an example Montreal Protocol Whaling treaty Comparison of two regimes. Evaluating Effectiveness. Institutions/regimes/treaties can always be evaluated against TWO definitions of success

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Overview

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Overview • Evaluating effectiveness • Pollution agreements: an example • Montreal Protocol • Whaling treaty • Comparison of two regimes

  2. Evaluating Effectiveness • Institutions/regimes/treaties can always be evaluated against TWO definitions of success • #1: “Was goal achieved?” Or “How close did institution come to achieving its goal?” • Compare actual behavior to goal • #2: “Did institution cause behaviors or outcomes different than would have occurred otherwise?” • Compare actual behavior to counterfactual

  3. Treaty In Force Pollution Agreements:Evaluating Effectiveness

  4. Treaty In Force Pollution Agreements:Evaluating Effectiveness

  5. Treaty In Force Pollution Agreements:Evaluating Effectiveness COUNTERFACTUAL:Predicted Emissions if Treaty Wasn’t Signed

  6. Treaty In Force Pollution Agreements:Evaluating Effectiveness COUNTERFACTUAL:Predicted Emissions if Treaty Wasn’t Signed Success of Treaty Relative to COUNTERFACTUAL

  7. Treaty In Force Pollution Agreements:Evaluating Effectiveness GOAL:Emissions Level Treaty Sought to Achieve

  8. Treaty In Force Pollution Agreements:Evaluating Effectiveness GOAL:Emissions Level Treaty Sought to Achieve Failure of TreatyRelative to GOAL

  9. What We Observe

  10. Counterfactual Based on Member’s Prior BehaviorImplies Effect

  11. ` Counterfactual Based on NON-Member’s BehaviorImplies Effect

  12. BUT BehaviorRelative to Goal Implies NO Effect

  13. Goal

  14. Goal Failure Relative To Goal

  15. Counterfactual

  16. Counterfactual Success Relative To Counterfactual

  17. Counterfactual Goal Failure Relative To Goal Success Relative To Counterfactual

  18. Catch may cause QuotaRather than Vice VersaImplies NO effect

  19. Evaluating Effectiveness • Institutions/regimes/treaties can always be evaluated against TWO definitions of success • #1: “Was goal achieved?” Or “How close did institution come to achieving its goal?” • Compare actual behavior to goal • #2: “Did institution cause behaviors or outcomes different than would have occurred otherwise?” • Compare actual behavior to counterfactual

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