200 likes | 357 Views
Overview. Evaluating effectiveness Pollution agreements: an example Montreal Protocol Whaling treaty Comparison of two regimes. Evaluating Effectiveness. Institutions/regimes/treaties can always be evaluated against TWO definitions of success
E N D
Overview • Evaluating effectiveness • Pollution agreements: an example • Montreal Protocol • Whaling treaty • Comparison of two regimes
Evaluating Effectiveness • Institutions/regimes/treaties can always be evaluated against TWO definitions of success • #1: “Was goal achieved?” Or “How close did institution come to achieving its goal?” • Compare actual behavior to goal • #2: “Did institution cause behaviors or outcomes different than would have occurred otherwise?” • Compare actual behavior to counterfactual
Treaty In Force Pollution Agreements:Evaluating Effectiveness
Treaty In Force Pollution Agreements:Evaluating Effectiveness
Treaty In Force Pollution Agreements:Evaluating Effectiveness COUNTERFACTUAL:Predicted Emissions if Treaty Wasn’t Signed
Treaty In Force Pollution Agreements:Evaluating Effectiveness COUNTERFACTUAL:Predicted Emissions if Treaty Wasn’t Signed Success of Treaty Relative to COUNTERFACTUAL
Treaty In Force Pollution Agreements:Evaluating Effectiveness GOAL:Emissions Level Treaty Sought to Achieve
Treaty In Force Pollution Agreements:Evaluating Effectiveness GOAL:Emissions Level Treaty Sought to Achieve Failure of TreatyRelative to GOAL
Counterfactual Based on Member’s Prior BehaviorImplies Effect
` Counterfactual Based on NON-Member’s BehaviorImplies Effect
Goal Failure Relative To Goal
Counterfactual Success Relative To Counterfactual
Counterfactual Goal Failure Relative To Goal Success Relative To Counterfactual
Catch may cause QuotaRather than Vice VersaImplies NO effect
Evaluating Effectiveness • Institutions/regimes/treaties can always be evaluated against TWO definitions of success • #1: “Was goal achieved?” Or “How close did institution come to achieving its goal?” • Compare actual behavior to goal • #2: “Did institution cause behaviors or outcomes different than would have occurred otherwise?” • Compare actual behavior to counterfactual