Designing Sustainable Landscapes for Avian Conservation in the SAMBI area

1. Designing Sustainable Landscapes for Avian Conservation in the SAMBI area

2. Funding and Cooperation • Funding • Multistate Conservation Grant • USGS Gap Analysis Program • USGS Science Support Project (Development of Inference Methods) • USFWS ACJV • Cooperators • NC Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit • AL Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit • Atlantic Coast Joint Venture

3. Project Objectives • Assess the current capability of landscape to support bird populations • Predict the impacts of landscape-level changes (e.g., from urban growth, conservation programs, climate change) • Target conservation programs to effectively and efficiently achieve objectives • Enhance coordination among partners during the planning, implementation and evaluation of habitat conservation through conservation design

4. Project Extent • Pilot Area: • South Atlantic Migratory Bird Initiative • 12 Priority habitats • Potential Expansion • SE-GAP Project area • NE-GAP Project area

5. Approach • Select focal species for each habitat • Potential habitat* • Source populations* • Suitable sites for each habitat* • Landform • Geographic constraints • Constraints on management/restoration* • Long-term commitment * Affected by landscape dynamics

6. Focal species

7. Atlanta Urban GrowthPredictionfor Next 100 yrs. Current 5 years 10 years 15 years 20 years 25 years 30 years 35 years 40 years 45 years 50 years 55 years 60 years 65 years 70 years 75 years 80 years 85 years 90 years 100 years Columbus

8. Landscape Changefor Next 100 yrs. Lake Moultrie 2001 +10 years +20 years +30 years +40 years +50 years Incorporates:sealevel riseurban growthsuccession +60 years +70 years +80 years Charleston +90 years +100 years

9. Habitat priorities

10. Project Web site – publications • NCSU • Sea Level Rise Modeling for the SAMBI DSL Project (PDF) • Urban Modeling for the SAMBI DSL Project (PDF) • Landscape Succession Modeling for the SAMBI DSL Project (PDF) • Avian Habitat Modeling for the SAMBI DSL Project (PDF) • Occupancy Models and Strategic Habitat Conservation for Avian Species in the Southeastern Coastal Plain of the United States (Monica Iglecia MS Thesis) • Auburn • Moody Dissertation • Incorporating Expert Knowledge in Decision-Support Models for Avian Conservation • Moody, A.T., and J.B. Grand. 2012. Incorporating Expert Knowledge in Decision-Support Models for Avian Conservation in A.H. Perera et al. (eds.), Expert Knowledge and Its Application in Landscape Ecology. Springer. • Focal species as method to plan spatially explicit conservation priorities. (June 2012) • Conservation priorities in an uncertain future (June 2012)

11. Project web site – GIS Data • Sea Level Rise (44 data layers) • SLAMM Output for SAMBI DSL Utilizing A1B Emission Scenario, Decadal Predictions 2000-2100 (ESRI GRID) • SLAMM Output for SAMBI DSL Utilizing A1FI Emission Scenario, Decadal Predictions 2000-2100 (ESRI GRID) • SLAMM Output for SAMBI DSL Utilizing A2 Emission Scenario, Decadal Predictions 2000-2100 (ESRI GRID) • SLAMM Output for SAMBI DSL Utilizing B1 Emission Scenario, Decadal Predictions 2000-2100 (ESRI GRID) • Urban Growth (11 data layers) • SLEUTH Output for SAMBI DSL, Decadal Predictions 2000-2100 (ESRI GRID)

12. Project web site – GIS Data • Landscape Succession with Sea Level Rise and Urban Growth (33 data layers) • VDDT/TELSA Output for SAMBI DSL Utilizing A1B Emission Scenario, Decadal Predictions 2000-2100 (ESRI GRID) • VDDT/TELSA Output for SAMBI DSL Utilizing A2 Emission Scenario, Decadal Predictions 2000-2100 (ESRI GRID) • VDDT/TELSA Output for SAMBI DSL Utilizing B1 Emission Scenario, Decadal Predictions 2000-2100 (ESRI GRID)

13. Project web site -- GIS Data • Species Habitat Models (1,320 data layers) • Avian Habitat Models for SAMBI DSL Utilizing A1B, A2 and B1 Emission Scenarios, Decadal Predictions 2000-2100 (ESRI GRID) • Priority maps • Priority surface for each habitat, decade, and Emission Scenario (396 layers) (ArcASCII) • Integrated priority surfaces for each habitat, Emission Scenario, discount rate (72 layers) (ArcASCII) • Focal areas for each Emission Scenario and Alternative (15 layers) (Shapefile)

14. EGCP LLP Decision Support Tools Draft map of conservation priorities for open pine systems in the EGCP JV area.

15. Range-wide Open Pine DST • Incorporating bird (wildlife) responses • Direct link to population objectives • Spatially explicit population predictions • Direct link to Desired Forest Conditions • Preferred conservation actions • Which actions? • At what cost? • When?

16. Using priority surfaces • Applications of Open Pine DST (similar) • NFWF projects within the EGCP JV • Landowner Incentive Program Projects in Alabama • Partners for Fish & Wildlife Conservation Projects in Alabama • Web Application – coming soon

17. What’s Next • Partner Workshops to: • Ask the right questions?? • Review population objectives • Discuss available products and how to use • Applicability to focus area revisions? • Comparison to SAMBI partner driven delineation of focus areas • Workshops scheduled for spring/early summer • Raleigh, Charleston, Charlie Elliott Wildlife Center (GA), Gainseville/Tallahassee • Challenge – travel to workshops