Conservation Design for Sustainable Avian Populations in the Eastern United States

1. Conservation Design for Sustainable Avian Populations in the Eastern United States a cooperative project by: NC Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit, NCSU AL Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit, Auburn University Atlantic Coast Joint Venture DSL Workshop

2. Funding Key Cooperators • Multistate Conservation Grant Program administered through the Association for Fish and Wildlife Agencies • NC and AL Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Units • Key participants in state and regional GAP datasets • Atlantic Coast Joint Venture • Regional coordination

3. Project Goal • The overall goal of this proposal is to develop a consistent methodology and to enhance the capacity of states, joint ventures and other partners to formulate conservation design schemes at landscape levels to sustain bird populations and other wildlife in the eastern United States.

4. Project Support Base • Duration: 3 years (Jan. 2008 – Dec. 2010) • Funding: $522,412 MSCGP • Partner Funds: $1.5 million • USGS Gap Analysis Program • USGS Science Support Project (Development of Inference Methods) • USFW ACJV

5. Project Objectives • Assess the current capability of habitats in ecoregions in the eastern United States to sustain bird populations • Predict the impacts of landscape-level changes (e.g., from urban growth, conservation programs, climate change) on the future capability of these habitats to support bird populations • Target conservation programs to effectively and efficiently achieve objectives in State Wildlife Action Plans and bird conservation plans and evaluate progress under these plans • Enhance coordination among partners during the planning, implementation and evaluation of habitat conservation through conservation design

6. Project Extent • Pilot Area: South Atlantic Migratory Bird Initiative • Future Expansion to Eastern US • SE-GAP data set being completed this spring • NE-GAP data set expected to be completed in 2010

7. SAMBI Study Extent Two test areas for selected models (e.g., Urban growth)

8. Predicting Impacts of Landscape Changes to Habitat Existing Landscape Conditions Global Climate Models Range of Future Landscape Conditions (10, 20, 50, 100 yrs) Scenario s 1, 2, 3, 4… Succession & Disturbance Models Urban Growth Models Alternative Management Scenarios Restoration, protect existing habitats, management

9. Avian Modeling • Initial list of potential species to model derived from SAMBI conservation plan • Workshops and/or consultation with regional biologists to finalize the list of species/habitat-suites through Structured Decision Making Process

10. Avian Modeling • Expert Opinion Models • Review and refine existing GAP models to include habitat suitability indices and population densities based on documented literature and expert opinion • Patch Occupancy with BBS data • Collaboration with USGS Patuxent WRC

11. Decision Support Tools • Develop Decision Support Tools (maps, databases, gis data) to allow users to select habitat management scenario(s) that would optimize future avian population/communities. • Allow objective evaluation and comparison between competing scenarios. • Developed with input from resource managers through Structured Decision Making Process.

12. Flowchart of Models and Tools Avian Models Spp. 1 Spp. 2 Spp. 3 Spp. 4… Range of Future Bird Populations Scenario 1 Scenario2 Scenario3 Scenario4…. Range of Future Landscape Conditions Scenario 1 Scenario2 Scenario3 Scenario4…. Existing Landscape Conditions Global Climate Models Succession & Disturbance Models Urban Growth Models Alternative Management Scenarios Scenario 1, 2, 3,4,… Range of Future Bird Populations Scenario 1 Scenario2 Scenario3 Scenario4…. Alternative Management Scenarios Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4…. DST Planning Tool