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BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – November 2009

BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – November 2009. An overview of movements in global financial markets. Global share markets were mixed in November.

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BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – November 2009

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  1. BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – November 2009 An overview of movements in global financial markets

  2. Global share markets were mixed in November... • Global share markets were a mixture of the good and the bad in November, with strong performances in the US (+5.7%) and the UK (+2.9%) countered by losses in Europe (-1.0%) and Japan (-6.9%). • The Australian share market largely reversed last month’s fall, with the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index closing 1.8% higher after AMP made a bid for AXA Asia Pacific, the Australian unit of France’s biggest insurer. Any corporate activity in the current economic environment is viewed favourably by the market and the news was even enough to overshadow a surprise drop in September’s retail trade numbers.

  3. …but continue to perform well over the long-term, despite some major market events Impact of major market events on global shares since 1987 Jul 01 Tech Wreck Jun 07 US Sub-prime Crisis Sep 01 Attack on Twin Towers Jul 98 Russian Bond Crisis Aug 97 Asian Currency Crisis Nov 89 Fall of the Berlin Wall Feb 94 Bond Market Crash Mar 03 Troops enter Iraq Jan 91 Gulf War Global shares measured by the MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$. Source: BT Financial Group, MSCI

  4. The Australian share market closed 1.8% higher in November S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index – year to 30 November 2009 Source: BT Financial Group, Premium Data

  5. Key Australian economic news – November • As was widely expected, the Reserve Bank raised interest rates by a further 0.25% (to 3.75%) at its early December meeting. It was the first time ever that the Bank has raised the official cash rate three times in a row. The RBA doesn’t meet in January but the market is already bracing itself for further rate hikes in February and March next year. • The Westpac/Melbourne Institute’s consumer sentiment survey eased 2.5% in November – its first monthly decline since May this year. • National Australia Bank’s business conditions survey jumped to a 22-month high in October as local businesses gained confidence in the recovery. • The Australian economy gained a further 24,500 jobs in October, well above the market consensus of a loss of 10,000 jobs. Source: BT Financial Group

  6. The Australian dollar continues to move higher against the US dollar • The Australian dollar was again higher against its US counterpart in November, gaining a further 1.8% on expectations that the Reserve Bank will continue to raise interest rates over the coming months. The local currency hit a high of US$0.9405 cents mid-month before eventually closing at US$0.9149 cents. • The A$ is now up 52% against the US$ since hitting a low of US$0.6012 cents in October last year and looks set to test the US$0.95 cent mark within the next couple of months. • At the end of November: A$1 bought US$0.9149 +1.8% €0.6098 -0.3% ¥78.95 -2.5% Source: BT Financial Group

  7. The Australian dollar versus the US dollar… Currency markets – A$ per US dollar Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 30 November 2009

  8. the Euro… Currency markets – A$ per Euro Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 30 November 2009

  9. and the Yen Currency markets – A$ per Yen Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 30 November 2009

  10. Official world interest rate movements – November • Interest rate movements were once again limited in November, with all the major central banks keeping their respective benchmark rates on hold. The Reserve Bank of Australia moved to raise the official cash rate by 0.25% in early December. Source: BT Financial Group

  11. Global share market returns 30 November 2009 Source: BT Financial Group

  12. Short-term asset class performance 1-year rolling returns to 30 November 2009 (%) Best performing asset class for the year Source: S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index hedged to $A , UBS Bank Bill 0+ years

  13. Short-term asset class performance (cont’d) 1-year returns to 30 November 2009 (%) 30 November 2008 30 November 2009 Australian bonds Listed property Australian shares Global bonds Global shares Source: S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index hedged to $A

  14. Long-term asset class performance 30 November 2009 Australian shares Listed property Australian bonds Global shares Cash Note: Accumulated returns based on $1,000 invested in December 1984 Source: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, UBS Bank Bill 0+ years

  15. Oil prices were relatively flat after rising US stockpile levels offset hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico Oil prices – US$ per barrel Source: BT Financial Group. West Texas Intermediate oil price at 30 November 2009

  16. This presentation has been prepared for BT Financial Group Limited (ABN 63 002 916 458) ‘BT’ and is for general information only.  Every effort has been made to ensure that it is accurate, however it is not intended to be a complete description of the matters described.  The presentation has been prepared without taking into account any personal objectives, financial situation or needs.  It does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any securities advice or securities recommendation.  Furthermore, it is not intended that it be relied on by recipients for the purpose of making investment decisions and is not a replacement of the requirement for individual research or professional tax advice.  BT does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this presentation.  Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, BT and its directors, employees and consultants do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this presentation or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person.  Unless otherwise noted, BT is the source of all charts; and all performance figures are calculated using exit to exit prices and assume reinvestment of income, take into account all fees and charges but exclude the entry fee.  It is important to note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This document was accompanied by an oral presentation, and is not a complete record of the discussion held. No part of this presentation should be used elsewhere without prior consent from the author. For more information, please call BT Customer Relations on 132 135 8:00am to 6:30pm (Sydney time)

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