Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat Principal Scientists Fernandes, J.M.C., Del Ponte, E. M.2 , Pavan3, W. and Cunha, G. R.1 1. Embrapa Trigo, Passo Fundo, RS, 99001-970, Brazil; 2 Department of Plant Patholoy, Iowa State University. 50011, Ames, IA, USA; 3 ICEG, University of Passo Fundo, Passo Fundo, RS, 99001-970, Brazil.

Agriculture Crops:Wheat Abiotic Factors Biotic Factors

WHEAT DISEASES Glume blotch Leaf rust Spot blotch Powdery mildew Blast Take all Tan spot BYDV

FUSARIUM HEAD BLIGHT OF WHEAT Window of susceptibility Highly influenced by weather variables

Mycotoxins DON – Deoxynivalenol – (0.5 ppm) Wheat Zero Barley

= + + SUSCETIBLE HOST PATHOGEN WEATHER (P, T ºC) FHB FHB Model

WHEAT-FHB MODEL DEMO

0.0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002231 FHB - SIMULATION

0.4 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002241 FHB - SIMULATION

0.39 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002242 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002243 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002244 FHB - SIMULATION

0.04 Flowers: 114 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002245 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Flowers: 156 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 495 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002246 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Flowers: 212 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 719 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1078 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002247 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Flowers: 134 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 886 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1418 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1595 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002248 FHB - SIMULATION

0.4 Flowers: 225 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 486 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 1636 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 1951 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 1788 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002249 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Flowers: 198 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 713 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 502 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 1926 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 1839 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 1453 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002250 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Flowers: 243Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 889 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 1497 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 732 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 2331 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 1958 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1294 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002251 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Flowers: 172 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 1094 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 1923 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 2471 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 1187 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 2652 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1885 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1136 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002252 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Flowers: 287 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 798 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 2355 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 3151 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 3361 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 1732 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 2399 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1555 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 843 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002253 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Flowers: 287 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 798 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 2355 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 3151 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 3361 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 1732 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 2399 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1555 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 843 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002254 FHB - SIMULATION

0.35 Flowers: 238 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers:927 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 1027 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 2861 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 3149 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 2998 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1453 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1879 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1092 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers:536 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002255 FHB - SIMULATION

0.3 Flowers: 176 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers:971 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 3,59 Flowers: 1724 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 4,95 Flowers: 1183 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 5,93 Flowers: 3035 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 6,76 Flowers: 2878 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 5,03 Flowers: 2253 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 4,19 Flowers: 855 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 3,15 Flowers: 1200 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 1,04 Flowers:622 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0,62 Flowers: 253 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0,31 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002256 FHB - SIMULATION

0.14 Flowers: 32 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers:1119 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 2003 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 7.65 Flowers: 2652 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 10.71 Flowers: 1509 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 11.08 Flowers: 3127 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 9.36 Flowers: 2442 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 7.80 Flowers: 1694 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 5.85 Flowers: 468 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 2.85 Flowers:709 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 1.17 Flowers: 306 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0.58 Flowers: 83 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.09 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002257 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers:647 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 2370 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 3194 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 12.47 Flowers: 3455 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 13.10 Flowers: 1900 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 11.38 Flowers: 2630 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 9.48 Flowers: 1823 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 7.11 Flowers: 1102 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 3.69 Flowers:211 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 1.67 Flowers: 333 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0.71 Flowers: 95 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.13 Flowers: 76 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.02 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002258 FHB - SIMULATION

0.4 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers:303 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 1048 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 2916 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 12.47 Flowers: 3256 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 13.10 Flowers: 3174 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 11.38 Flowers: 1682 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 9.48 Flowers: 2136 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 7.11 Flowers: 1335 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 3.69 Flowers:733 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 1.67 Flowers: 125 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0.71 Flowers: 113 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.13 Flowers: 97 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.02 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002259 FHB - SIMULATION

0.60 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 393 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 1220 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 3108 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 18.86 Flowers: 3001 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 17.13 Flowers: 2416 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 14.28 Flowers: 1043 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 10.70 Flowers: 1384 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 6.09 Flowers:776 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads:3.11 Flowers: 355 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 1.43 Flowers: 43 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.37 Flowers: 112 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.14 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002260 FHB - SIMULATION

0.42 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 19 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 567 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 1593 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 27.50 Flowers: 3258 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 25.78 Flowers: 2610 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 21.48 Flowers: 1880 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 16.11 Flowers: 645 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 9.69 Flowers: 854 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 5.27 Flowers: 401 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 2.51 Flowers: 123 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.73 Flowers: 48 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.50 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002261 FHB - SIMULATION

0.45 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 428 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 3501 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 1977 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 2734 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 26.52 Flowers: 1945 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 19.89 Flowers: 1224 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 12.21 Flowers: 317 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 6.79 Flowers: 407 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 3.28 Flowers: 127 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.98 Flowers: 117 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.76 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002262 FHB - SIMULATION

0.36 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 2950 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 1368 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 1759 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 2228 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 1431 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 14.94 Flowers: 820 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 8.42 Flowers: 187 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4,09 Flowers: 141 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.26 Flowers: 135 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.03 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002263 FHB - SIMULATION

0.0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 17.51 Flowers: 2239 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 33.55 Flowers: 567 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads:31.82 Flowers: 1029 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 31.98 Flowers: 938 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 23.98 Flowers: 1420 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads:17.10 Flowers: 811 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 382 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 56 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 130 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 2002264 FHB - SIMULATION

Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat