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Australia’s Energy Future Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Floods

APPEA 2005 Conference & Exhibition Securing our Industry 11 April 2005 Perth W Australia. Australia’s Energy Future Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Floods. Conference Plenary. Speaker. Annimac www.annimac.com.au.

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Australia’s Energy Future Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Floods

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  1. APPEA 2005 Conference & Exhibition Securing our Industry 11 April 2005 Perth W Australia Australia’s Energy FutureNoah Built Before it RainedForecast : Floods Conference Plenary Speaker Annimac www.annimac.com.au

  2. Two most powerful industries : . Technology I C T . Energy Oil & gas

  3. Industry secure future ?No Not the way it is

  4. What must change ? Can it change ?

  5. every 5 seconds : new web site every 5 minutes : new technology every day : 15 million new web pages every 5 days : new product / service Amount of change in one day our Grandparents had in one year Younger means faster Rate of Change

  6. Technology e.g. by 2020 70 % types of jobs then do not exist now because 80% technology not yet imagined Driving all Drivers of Change

  7. What’s pushing the industry : . Political power shift . Global economic shift . Global values shift . O&G Big Rollover

  8. O & G Big Rollover : Supply > Demand

  9. Three Wise Monkeys • Oil Companies : - hear no depletion • Governments & International Agencies : - see no depletion • And all agree it would be best to : - talk no depletion

  10. Norway (North Sea) Typical Oil Depletion Curve Werner Zittel , LBST

  11. Saudi Reserves Seriously Overstated Matthew Simmons February 2004 2004 www.SimmonsCo-Intl.com

  12. Study : World oil forecast beset with reserves shortfalls Oil & Gas JournalApril 12, 2004 Douglas - Westwood Ltd Cambridge UK 2004 2016

  13. Oil discovery Oil production Forecast ? ASPO Newsletter 40 April 2004www.PeakOil.net Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

  14. Francis HarperASPO 2004, Berlin IHS and O&GJ Remaining Reserves www.PeakOil.net Data from IHS Energy and OGJ annual reports

  15. Why are oil depletion forecasts • being down played ? • " Do you wish to : • Kill your career • Head the redundancy list • Be blamed for starting the panic ?" Chris Skrebowski Institute of Petroleum www.PeakOil.net

  16. Or is Big Rollover : ( tick one ) a) Only part of humungous dilemma b) Forcing too rapid change c) Change to what ? d) All too scary e) All of the above or f) Nonsense

  17. Everyone agrees : Change is inevitable . Your choice : Understand forces of change or Be victim of future.

  18. What’s pushing the industry : . Political power shift . Global economic shift . Global values shift . O&G Big Rollover

  19. Global Economic power

  20. Economic domination 200 yrs

  21. to Western Pacific Rim

  22. Global Cultural power

  23. Christian domination 500 yrs

  24. Estimated 2 billion people watched world media

  25.  to Confucian / Islam influence

  26. Fastest robanoid

  27. Chi master class with MIT engineers

  28. Gap widening : Knowledge Haves / have nots Age generations Globally networked Shifting Global Values

  29. About Technology not wealth Access Skilling 50 % world popn : no phone Gap : Haves - Have Nots

  30. Gap : Age Generations Four generations : Three worlds • Baby Boomers 45 – 60 yrs Materialism • economic rationalists : profit • material values : tangibles • science as religion : rational • Generation X 30 – 45 yrs • clones of Boomers : materialists or • copy younger : sustainability

  31. Gap : Age Generations Four generations : Three worlds • DotComs 15 - 30 yrs Sustainability • global identity • co opitalism • relationships • holistic win - win – win • Cluetrain Manifesto “ The marketplace is a conversation ” www.cluetrainmanifesto.com

  32. Chinese Technology Centre

  33. Gap : Age Generations • Four generations : Three worlds • Ferals 0 – 15 yrs Virtual • . no limits • .no boundaries • . parallel universes  • . quantum everything • . invent their world • . beyond our imagining • . Indigo children

  34. Gap : Globally Networked • access all knowledge • empowered • confident • passionately committed • global view future • one planet : one future

  35. Impact for Energy Industry • transiting two worlds - accelerating • values shifting to sustainability • Big Rollover value driven • cooperation not competition • young non negotiators • relationships : consumers partners innovators

  36. Impact for Aus Energy Industry • industry leader - how to’s • global location - Asian partners • values shifting to sustainability • not changing fast enough • economic rationalist power • Big Rollover not on agenda • “ She’ll be right, mate.” Science.

  37. Thriving with change :

  38. Thank youwww.annimac.com.au

  39. Very special note of appreciation to Bruce Robinson www.STCwa.org.au for his impeccable knowledge regarding global Oil Depletion and his generosity in sharing it. Thank you, Bruce. annimac

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