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Sustainability: challenges for the 21 st Century

Sustainability: challenges for the 21 st Century. Sir David King Chief Scientific Adviser to UK Government 22 November 2007 Kolkata. 21 st Century Challenges. Population Water resource and food production Energy security and supply Health and disease

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Sustainability: challenges for the 21 st Century

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  1. Sustainability: challenges for the 21st Century Sir David King Chief Scientific Adviser to UK Government 22 November 2007 Kolkata

  2. 21st Century Challenges • Population • Water resource and food production • Energy security and supply • Health and disease • Environment and climate change • Conflict and terrorism • Wellbeing &sustainability

  3. Demographic changes

  4. Variation of life expectancy around the world

  5. Burden of disease HIV Prevalence rate, 2006 (% of adult population) Source: UNAIDS and WHO, December 2006

  6. World water deficit Source: NERC, CEH Wallingford

  7. Commission for Africa Report • A new kind of partnership – based on mutual respect and solidarity • Good governance • An additional $25bn a year in aid by 2010 • 100% debt cancellation for poorest countries • Untying aid

  8. Knowledge transfer and capacity building: Human capital • Education provision skills development • Population growth containment Infrastructure Development • Clean water, hospitals, schools, police, government facilities, transport on a trans-regional basis Cultural Development • Attitudes to wealth creation • Encouraging entrepreneurial spirit • Respect for indigenous culture

  9. Skills: Holistic approach • Coordinate international programmes • Governmental and regional decision making in partnership • Need to go beyond basic education – building up capabilities in primary, secondary and higher education • Using centres of excellence to raise standards throughout the system

  10. MRC Laboratories in The Gambia

  11. India: an example of best practice • First PM, Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru – deep faith in S&T • Sustained investment in schools, HE and S&T • Development of Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs), initially funded by UK, USA, Russia & Germany post 1947 IIT, Delhi

  12. 383ppm (2006) Fedorovet al, Science 312 (2006) 1485

  13. Simulated global warming Source: Hadley Centre

  14. Predicted temperature change Source: IPCC fourth assessment report

  15. Possible flooding in the UK by 2080s

  16. Climate sensitivity Source: Hadley Centre

  17. Adapt and Mitigate We must adapt in preparation for the significant changes ahead and manage the risks country by country. We have to actively mitigate against the production of greenhouse gases by: Switching to low carbon energy sources Increased energy efficiency Developing new technologies Action on deforestation

  18. Global dimensions of the mitigation problem Source: IPCC 4AR Source: Carbon Trust

  19. The CO2 emissions map Note: Map reflects the relative emissions from fossil fuel consumption in 20th century

  20. Source: Defra

  21. Taking global action 1988 - IPCC 1992 - United Nations Framework Convention on climate change 1997 - Kyoto 2003 - UK Government’s 60% target 2005 - Emissions trading 2005 - G8+5 Dialogue started 2006 - UNFCCC COP 12, Nairobi 2007 - IPCC 2007 - EU agree to cut CO2 emissions by 20% by 2020 2007 - June G8+5 Summit, Heiligendamm 2009 - Copenhagen

  22. The Energy Technologies Institute

  23. The wedges solution to UK emissions – illustrative Renewables Energy efficiency Nuclear CCS Transport Decentralisedenergy and micro generation CHP Further developments UK CO2 annual production 100% 100 % 40 % 0 % 2025 2007 2050

  24. What is needed for a global agreement on climate change Global stabilisation level agreed Agreed national targetsandtimeframes Carbon trading Technology transfer and adaptation strategy for developing countries Action on deforestation

  25. Global cost curve of GHG abatement opportunities beyond business as usual • 2030 Coal-to-gas shift Cost of abatement (EUR/tCO2e) Avoid deforestation Asia Industrial feedstock substitution CCS; coal retrofit Forestation Waste Soil Livestock/soils CCS EOR;New coal Wind; low pen. • 40 Solar Small hydro • 30 Nuclear Industrial non-CO2 • 20 Airplane efficiency • 10 Stand-by losses • 0 • 0 • 1 • 2 • 3 • 4 • 5 • 6 • 7 • 8 • 9 • 10 • 11 • 12 • 13 • 14 • 15 • 16 • 17 • 18 • 19 • 20 • 21 • 22 • 23 • 24 • 25 • 26 • 27 • -10 Avoided deforestation America • -20 Industrial CCS Cellulose ethanol Industrial non-CO2 • -30 Co-firing biomass CCS;new coal Sugarcane biofuel • -40 • -50 Fuel efficient vehicles Industrial motorsystems • -60 Water heating • -70 • -80 Air Conditioning Abatement (GtCO2e/year) • -90 Lighting systems • -100 Fuel efficient commercial vehicles • -110 • -120 • -130 • -140 Insulation improvements • -150 Source: Enkvist et al, The McKinsey Quarterly, 2007, No.1 • -160

  26. Scale of opportunities • Market opportunities in the order of at least $500 billion globally by 2050, if the world responds to climate change on the scale required • Global market for environmental goods and services projected to grow from $548bn in 2004 to $800bn by 2015 • EU Emissions Trading Scheme: from a standing start in 2005 London is today the leading centre for carbon trading, with a market worth over £9bn

  27. Solar Land Area Requirements 6 Boxes at 3.3 TW Each Source: Nathan Lewis

  28. A World in Transition Falling communications costs Our impact on theenvironment Population challenge Evolving needs from consumers Globalisation – rise of China and India Technological change Source: www.mondolithic.com

  29. Comparing economic and scientific wealth

  30. Foresight Programme Mental Capital and Wellbeing Sustainable Energy Management and the Built Environment Detection and Identification of Infectious Diseases Intelligent Infrastructure Systems Tackling Obesities Future Choices Brain Science Addiction and Drugs Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum Cognitive Systems Flood and Coastal Defence

  31. Who is involved? Ministerial stakeholder group International bodies CSA and Minister Science Co-ordination Group Foresight project team Stakeholder organisations Expert advisory group UK and international experts

  32. Foresight: Sustainable Energy and the Built Environment foresight.gov.uk

  33. Wellbeing Foresight’s Mental Capital and Wellbeing Project foresight.gov.uk

  34. Sustainability and Wellbeing Science, technology and innovation are all vital for good governance, stability,human capital and wealth creation Technically skilled populations are a pre-requisite for: Economic and wealth sustainability; and Wellbeing

  35. Sustainable Development Each generation should leave at least as large a productive base for its successor as it inherited from its predecessor Productive Base: Manufactured capital Social worth of Human capital these assets = Natural/Environmental capital wealth of a nation + Institutions, cultural coordinates Source: Partha Dasgupta

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