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Science in Government: Challenges for the 21 st Century

Science in Government: Challenges for the 21 st Century. Professor John Beddington Chief Scientific Adviser to UK Government and Head of the UK Government Office for Science Campaign for Science and Engineering, London 10 December 2009. Report to the Prime Minister and Cabinet

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Science in Government: Challenges for the 21 st Century

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  1. Science in Government:Challenges for the 21st Century Professor John Beddington Chief Scientific Adviser to UK Government and Head of the UK Government Office for Science Campaign for Science and Engineering, London 10 December 2009

  2. Report to the Prime Minister and Cabinet Responsible for the quality of all engineering and scientific advice across the whole of Government Lead a network of departmental Chief Scientific Advisers The role of the Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government • Head of the Science and Engineering Profession in the Civil Service • Supported by the Government Office for Science who have a cross-Government challenge and support role

  3. Chief Scientific Advisers Ministers and Permanent Secretaries Research Councils Chief Scientific Advisers’ Committee (CSAC) CSAC Issues Group Engineering institutions e.g. RAEng Engineers x3 Social Scientists x4 Natural Scientists x8 Engineers x3 Social Scientists x1 Natural Scientists x5 Science Institutions, e.g. Royal Society Government Scientists and Engineers

  4. The Science and Engineering Profession in Government Role as Head of the Science and Engineering Profession • Ensuring the contribution of engineers and scientists is recognised and valued in Government • Providing support to career development activities and professional skills • Community of Scientists and Engineers across Government • To join the GSE contact: GSE@bis.gsi.gov.uk GSE@bis.gsi.gov.uk

  5. Global challenges for science and engineering in the 21st Century  Urbanisation  Population Food security Alleviating poverty  Energy demand  Water demand Climate Change Counter-terrorism Biodiversity Non-infectious diseases Infectious diseases

  6. New variant A/H1N1 first confirmed. A random viral reassortment resulting in a new strain mixture of swine (pig), human and avian influenza viruses. Not clear where, when or in what host this occurred Virus may have been circulating in Mexico for some time Reassortments happen all the time. Occasionally the new virus May become more transmissible May become more severe May switch host target. Mexico, 23 April 2009 Image of HN1N virus Source – US CDC influenza laboratory

  7. Day 2 (from official confirmation of the first identified case in Mexico)

  8. Day 4

  9. Day 8

  10. Day 16

  11. 28 Days later

  12. Global situation: mid-November

  13. Using science to manage Swine Flu in the UK government Civil Contingencies Committee in COBR Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) Clinical Countermeasures Behaviour & Communication Modelling Joint Committee for Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI)

  14. Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA) Energy Climate Change Food Increased demand 50% by 2030 (FAO) Water Increased demand 30% by 2030 (IFPRI) The Perfect Storm? • Increasing population • Increasing levels of urbanisation • The rightful goal to alleviate poverty • Climate Change

  15. Increasing population and urbanisation by 2030 World population by region Urban and rural populations of the world (at mid-year) 1950 - 2050 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (medium scenario) Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: 2008 (revision)

  16. Increased demand for food and energy World primary energy demand by fuel World food requirements Total world energy demands are predicted to increase by approx. 50% by 2030 (Source: IEA 2008: Reference Scenario) World food production must rise by 50% by 2030 to meet increasing demand (Source: UN 2008)

  17. By 2030: Agricultural production More people means less cultivated land per person for food, feed, (agro)-fuel and fibre production 2030 – 8.3 bn people 2030 – even less farmland per person

  18. Lowest level of grain reserves since the 1970s Stock to use ratio, % of all grains and oilseeds Source: Thirtle, unpublished

  19. The challenge Need: 50% more production on less land, with less water, using less energy, fertiliser and pesticide … …by 2030 … whilst not increasing GHG emissions

  20. Biotechnology can help provide solutions GM may also provide future solutions, notably for improved drought and saline tolerance; and resistance to pests and disease Current losses due to pests and diseases worldwide Plants grow in an oasis next to the desert in Dunhuang, Gansu province • Genomics to provide targeted and predictive non-GM plant breeding (e.g. for yield, sustainability, quality) • Work on crop improvement e.g. increased disease resistance

  21. UK Cross Government Food Strategy Food Strategy Task Force (Cabinet Office chair) Research Strategy Subgroup (GCSA Chair) Other subgroups e.g. Vision (Defra chair) Food Research Partnership Industry Academia Public Sector

  22. Other expert advice The Council of Food Policy Advisers (CFPA) The Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition (SACN) The Spongiform Encephalopathy Advisory Committee (SEAC) Committee on Toxicity of Chemicals in Food, Consumer Products and Environment (COT)

  23. Food supply chain Agriculture & Food research > Production > Manufacture > Distribution > Consumer > Health & Trade Research Councils and the Food Supply Chain

  24. Opportunities for science and innovation • The new TSB Sustainable Agriculture and Food Innovation Platform will see investment of up to £90 million over the next five years. • It will focus on: • Crop productivity including protection and nutrition • Sustainable livestock production • Waste reduction and management • GHG Reduction technologies and Methodologies

  25. Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA) Energy Climate Change Food Increased demand 50% by 2030 (FAO) Water Increased demand 30% by 2030 (IFPRI) The Perfect Storm? • Increasing population • Increasing levels of urbanisation • The rightful goal to alleviate poverty • Climate Change

  26. Global temperature rise +2° • PROBLEMATIC • 1 - 2 billion additional people with water stress • Impacts on cereal productivity at low latitudes • Increased coastal flooding and storms • Greater depth of seasonal permafrost thaw • DISASTROUS • A 16 °C increase in the Arctic • 1.1 - 3.2 billion additional people with water stress • Widespread coral mortality; risk of major extinctions around the globe • Substantial global impact on major crops • Long-term prospect of sea level rise +4°

  27. + 8 - 16 °C + 5 - 7 °C + 3 - 8 °C + 4 - 8 °C Temperature ranges at + 4°C Interactive map: www.actoncopenhagen.decc.gov.uk Source: Met Office Hadley Centre

  28. Europe + 2°C 1. High forest-fire danger. 2. Production of some cereal crops may increase. 3. Changes in rainfall patterns. 5. Drought events one and a half times as frequent. 8. Hottest days across Europe could be as much as 6°C warmer. Source: Met Office

  29. Europe + 4°C 1. High forest-fire danger 5. 70% reduction in river and stream flow 6. Sea-level rises and storm surges 11. Drought in Mediterranean basin 18. Hottest days of the year across Europe up to 8 °C warmer Source: Met Office

  30. Americas+ 2°C 1. High forest-fire danger 2. Production of some cereal crops may increase. 3. Changes in rainfall patterns. 7. Hottest days across eastern North America could be as much as 8°C warmer. Source: Met Office

  31. Americas+ 4°C 1. High forest-fire danger 5. 70% reduction in river and stream flow in South America 9. Disappearance of many glaciers in South America 15. Tropical cyclones more destructive 17. Hottest days up 10-12° over eastern North America. Source: Met Office

  32. Africa+ 2°C 1. High forest-fire danger 2. Production of some cereal crops may increase. 5. Drought events one and a half times as frequent. Source: Met Office

  33. Africa+ 4°C 1. High forest-fire danger 2. Maize and wheat yields reduced by 40%. 5. 70% reduction in river and stream flow in southern Africa 11. Drought twice as frequent in southern Africa 18. Hottest days of the year up to 8 °C warmer on Mediterranean coast Source: Met Office

  34. Our understanding of climate change: the 1930s 1935 In 1938 Callendar identifies a warming trend and argues that it was caused by human emissions of CO2 Source: Quarterly J. Royal Meteorological Society64, 223 (1938)

  35. Understanding climate change: the 1960s & 70s 1975 Press speculation that the Earth could be heading for cooling rather than warming Top left: Nigel Calder's 1974 book entitled The Weather Machine and the Threat of Ice

  36. Understanding climate change: the 1980s to today Hansen (US) and Wigley /Jones (UK) used statistical techniques to show global temperatures had been rising since the mid 1960s • First robust records of global temperature change • They accounted for ‘data gaps’ in the Southern Hemisphere and over the oceans

  37. Appropriate analysis Correct use of statistics is critical for the communication of climate change Source: Met Office

  38. Is global warming due to human activities? Source: Stott et al. External Control of 20th Century Temperature by Natural and Anthropogenic ForcingsScience, 2000, Vol. 290. no. 5499, pp. 2133 – 2137 Graph from Met Office Hadley Centre website

  39. The Government Office for Science The Prime Minister and Cabinet • Ministers • CSAs • OGDs • NGOs • Industry Government Chief Scientific Adviser BIS International Science in Government Team Private Office Foresight Team • GO - Science are housed in BIS but have an independent cross-Government role • GO - Scienceprovide scientific challenge and support to Departmental policy officials and for scientists across Government

  40. Foresight Project: Mental Capital and Wellbeing • This project aimed to use the best available scientific and other evidence to develop a vision for: • The opportunities and challenges facing the UK over the next 20 years and beyond, and the implications for everyone’s “mental capital” and “mental wellbeing”. • What we all need to do to meet the challenges ahead, so that everyone can realise their potential and flourish in the future. The MCWB Lead Expert Group have recently published their expanded findings as an important reference work.

  41. (A) Sustainably feeding the world under ever increasing resource pressures (B) Increasing resilience to cope with a more volatile world (C) Ending hunger (D) Meeting the challenge of a low carbon world (E) Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services while feeding the world Foresight Project: Global Food and Farming Futures Reporting: October 2010

  42. (A) Survival migration (B) Rapid changes in migration flows (C) Concentrated migration (D) New migration streams (E) Changing distribution of urban centres (F) Migration in the context of adaptation Foresight Project: Global Environmental Migration Reporting: September 2011

  43. Global challenges for science and engineering in the 21st Century  Urbanisation  Population Food security Alleviating poverty  Energy demand  Water demand Climate Change Counter-terrorism Biodiversity Non-infectious diseases Infectious diseases

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