Census planning and budgeting

1. UNECE Training Workshop on Census Questionnaire Design for SPECA member countries (Dushanbe, 12-16 March 2007) Census planningand budgeting Paolo Valente (UNECE)

2. Content of presentation: 1. The importance of census planning 2. Establishing a work plan 3. Setting up a financial outline 4. Preparation of the budget 5. Monitoring census operations 6. Controlling expenditures

3. NOTICE: • At the Baku Workshop, census planning and budgeting was covered as part of the presentation on “Overall census management” • This presentation moves from the basic concepts presented in Baku and expands the discussion on census planning and budgeting • Topics already covered in Baku are not repeated in detail here. Participants who were not in Baku may consult the presentation on “Overall census management” (pres. 1) on the UNECE website:http://www.unece.org/stats/documents/2006.10.census.htm

4. 1. The importance of census planning1.1 What is census planning • Census planning is the process linking the different phases of the census cycle: • Preparation • Field operations • Processing • Dissemination • Evaluation

5. 1. The importance of census planning The census cycle: • Each phase of the census cycle is dependent on a preceding phase  The quality of the output from each phase has a direct effect on the success of the next phase

6. 1. The importance of census planning1.2 Aim of the census planning process The aim of the census planning process is to ensure that: 1. Each phase is properly resourced and organized 2. The output of each phase is of sufficient quality for all subsequent phases 3. All dependencies between the different phases are identified

7. 1. The importance of census planning1.3 Why census planning is important • Census planning is the most critical processto the completion of a successful census Why?  Inadequate planning may lead to underestimating time and resources (financial, human, technical) required for the different census phases  Inadequate planning may result in serious problems in census operations that could not be solved at a later stage, and could ultimately affect the quality of census output

8. 2. Establishing a work plan2.1 Characteristics of the work plan IMPORTANT: Time is an essential dimension for good census planning: Census planning should start AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE before the census! Census planning should not remain static but be FLEXIBLE to take into account changes that may occur during the census cycle

9. 2. Establishing a work plan2.2 Important issues to be considered Issues to be considered when planning a census: (a) Specifying the role of the census as part of the larger National Statistical Programme (b) Clarifying the role of Government: • Providing a legal framework for the census • Providing funding for the census • Providing logistical support for the census (c) Setting census goals: • Identify stakeholders and their requirements • State priorities These issues were discussed in detail at Baku workshop (see pres. 1 on “Overall census management” on UNECE website)

10. 2. Establishing a work plan2.3 Developing the work plan The census is a BIG project, which include a number of projects dependent on one another.  Need to develop a work plan with a hierarchical structure: • Projects (ex.: Field operations) • Phases (ex.: Field mapping) • Activities (ex.: Enumeration area design) • Tasks (ex.: Prepare enumeration area design manual) The work plan should also include: Milestones: Specific points in time at which key outcomes are expected (to measure project’s progress)

11. 2. Establishing a work plan2.3 Developing the work plan • Given the great number of specific activities, it is practical to break down the general work plan into more detailed work plans for the different projects and phases of the census. Example: • field operations work plan • data processing work plan • training work plan  It is of crucial importance to ensure the necessary consistency of these work plans

12. 2. Establishing a work plan2.3 Developing the work plan Project management software can be effectively used to develop good and consistent work plans Software can be commercial or developed in-house  In the 2000 census round, 28 ECE countries(2/3 of reporting countries) used management software: - 18 countries used commercial software - 11 countries developed software in-house Source: UNECE Survey, 2004 See details in table 3.1 of UNECE Publication on 2000 Round of Censuses

13. 2. Establishing a work plan2.3 Developing the work plan To develop the work plan, all components (projects, phases, activities, tasks) must be identified at each level, and the relative timetable defined A top–down approach is recommended, moving from broad components down to more detailed activities and tasks Often several iterations may be needed to improve work plan As long as framework develops: 1. people can be assigned responsibilities, and 2. reporting and review arrangements can be established Need for coordination and communication among activities

14. 2. Establishing a work plan2.3 Developing the work plan Example of detailed work plan (by Australia), with list of activities and relative timetable: See Annex II of “Handbook on Census Management for Population and Housing Censuses” on UNSD website (http://unstats.un.org/unsd/pubs/): “Example of a model census project timetable”

15. 2. Establishing a work plan2.3 Developing the work plan Extract from Annex II “Example of a model census project timetable”:

16. 2. Establishing a work plan2.4 The Gantt chart Useful tool for planning and monitoring: the Gantt chart

17. 2. Establishing a work plan2.4 The Gantt chart Time frame in weeks, months or quarters Activities Visual representation of relations between activities

18. 2. Establishing a work plan2.5 Assessing the duration of various activities How to assess the duration of each activity?  Use realistic information from previous census or other similar operation  The pilot census can provide good estimates, but only if carried out under conditions closely resembling the actual census

19. 2. Establishing a work plan2.5 Assessing the duration of various activities Pay particular attention to activities that requiredecisionsto be taken at avery early stage Example: Purchasing computers or other technical equipment may require relatively long time (issue call for tenders, selection, production, delivery)  The scheduling of the work plan should allow for ample time for all materials to arrive at their respective destinations before they are actually needed

20. 2. Establishing a work plan2.5 Assessing the duration of various activities Local conditionsandtransportation facilitiesshould be always taken into account Example: Questionnaires and other materials could get wet and spoiled in certain conditions, in particular during winter and rainy seasons.  Take necessary measures to minimise the risk that printed material is exposed to the danger of gettingwet and spoiled during transport and storage. Printing should not be completed too long before the material is required.

21. 2. Establishing a work plan2.6 Assessing the amount of work As part of the work plan, theamount of work in physical termsshould be assessed for each activity Example for field enumeration: the amount of work can be measured by the number of households to be enumerated and the average time needed to enumerate an household  This information is required for estimating the number of enumerators required in order to accomplish the operation within the time scheduled in the work plan The assessment of the number of field staff (enumerators, supervisors, managers) was discussed in detail at Baku workshop (see pres. 7 on “Staff recruitment” on UNECE website)

22. 2. Establishing a work plan2.6 Assessing the amount of work Example for data entry: the amount of work can be measured in terms of the number of questionnaires to be entered (or scanned)  This information is required for estimating the number of data entry machines (or scanners) and operators required See Annex V of “Handbook on Census Management for Population and Housing Censuses” on UNSD website (http://unstats.un.org/unsd/pubs/): “Time and equipment estimations for manual census data entry and scanner census data entry”

23. 2. Establishing a work plan2.6 Assessing the amount of work Information on the expected amount of work in physical termsfor each activity is also needed for monitoringthe rate of accomplishment of specific activities, so that timely action can be taken in case delays are detected

24. 2. Establishing a work plan2.7 Risk management  Work plans should also deal with risk management Which risks?  All possible events that could occur and have a negative impact on the success of the census Risks with significant likelihood should be managed explicitly by developing fully detailed plans parallel to the census plan Risk management is essential because of the importance of the census and the fact that it is an infrequent exercise  The success or failure of the census may depend on the implementation of the plans associated with these risks if they occur

25. 3. Setting up a financial outline3.1 Assigning costs to activities From the work plan a financial outline can be drawn up by assigning costs to specific activities

26. 3. Setting up a financial outline3.2 Different kinds of costs Two kinds of costs should be distinguished: i. Those for which the total cost derives directly from the product of a unit cost and a physical quantityExample: If N computers are required for data entry at US$ X each, the total cost would be: (US$ X) * N ii. Those for which the cost is either a flat rate or a non-linear function of the quantityExample of flat rate: The honorarium of an expert Example of non-linear function: printing costs, with fixed cost + variable costs where unit costs may decrease with quantity

27. 3. Setting up a financial outline3.3 Estimating the costs The assessments of costs (flat rate, linear on non-linear function) should be based on realistic price estimatesobtained from previous experiences (previous census, pilot census) or by experts or providers of goods and services Example: estimates from printers for printing costs

28. 3. Setting up a financial outline3.3 Estimating the costs If expenditures for previous census are used as a base, they should be corrected for: - Increased costs (ex.: salary increases, inflation) - Decreased costs or efficiency gains (ex.: new technology) - Policy changes - Population increase Very important to estimate salary costs (largest component) For estimating staff costs for enumeration and data processing, see Ch.III sec.B and Ch.IV sec.C of “Handbook on Census Management for Population and Housing Censuses” on UNSD website (http://unstats.un.org/unsd/pubs/)

29. 4. Preparation of the budget4.1 From the financial outline to the budget • The budget can be set up directly from thefinancial outline by aggregating costs of specific activities according to the financial time schedule • The budget normally should be prepared in accordance with the regulations of the government, andthe standard set forth by the authorities empowered to approve and appropriate the funds

30. 4. Preparation of the budget4.2 General issues on the census budget IMPORTANT: The census budget MUST: 1)Be prepared well in advance 2) CoverALLknown activities 3) Allocate sufficient resources to each phase  Funds allocated and used effectively on planning and preparation will result in savings in all other phases, namely in enumeration and processing operations

31. 4. Preparation of the budget4.2 General issues on the census budget REMEMBER to allocate sufficient resources to the dissemination phase  The users will judge the census on the ability to deliver the data on time and in the way desired

32. 4. Preparation of the budget4.2 General issues on the census budget  In the 2000 census round, ECE countries spent on average only 5% of their census budget for publication, dissemination and documentation  23 countries (2/3 of reporting countries) spent less than 3%! Source: UNECE Survey, 2004  Detailed information on census costs in the 2000 census round is available in the UNECE Publication on the 2000 Round of Censuses (Part I, Ch. 4)

33. 4. Preparation of the budget4.2 General issues on the census budget Other issues to consider: • The census budget is highly cyclical (peaks during enumeration and processing) • The census budget should have built in some contingency allowance for unexpected expenses

34. 4. Preparation of the budget4.3 Level of detail • The census budget should be detailed enoughto permit easy examination and/or review and subsequent approval by officials concerned • The census budget is generally less detailed than the financial outline  Example: all salaries and wages could be regrouped by year even if the staff requirements of the census vary largely over the census cycle

35. 4. Preparation of the budget4.3 Level of detail • In large countries with socio-economic conditions varying from province to province, for some items a budget could be prepared for each province separately. They could be then pooled together to arrive at a country budget Example: If transport and communication facilities may not exist uniformly in all the provinces, separate estimates of travel and transport costs could be made for individual provinces

36. 5. Monitoring census operations 5.1 Monitoring the work plan Developing a good census work plan is important, but not sufficient!  The work plan must be MONITOREDclosely and on a regular basis, and feedback be delivered to all levels of management

37. Monitoring census operations 5.1 Monitoring the work plan The review should be conducted at least each quarter, but in the crucial period (field work) a continuous day-to-day review is recommended Most important components to monitor are: • Time for completing a task • Resource usage per task • Cost per task • Milestones

38. Monitoring census operations 5.1 Monitoring the work plan  All deviations from planned schedule, costs and resources should be analysed and the impact assessed  Any delay occurring along any line of activity could have a chain reaction in the subsequent activity of the programme, affecting both work plan and budget

39. Monitoring census operations 5.2 Modifying the work plan Ideally, the work plan should remain unchanged However… …in some cases it may be necessary to make changes to the plan and timetable Example: If it is estimated that a key task leading to a milestones cannot be completed in the planned time, then the task must be extended and the work plan modified

40. Monitoring census operations 5.2 Modifying the work plan Whenever the work plan is modified:  All possible implications of the changes on the other components of the work plan and on the budget should be carefully considered  All key personnel potentially affected by the changes should be promptly informed

41. 6. Controlling expenditures6.1 Monitoring the census budget Monitoring the census budget is fundamental  This would allow to identify on time possible over-expenditures and shortfalls, and take appropriate measures Two levels of monitoring: 1) Every month (or at least every quarter): monitor expenditures against funding for each project 2) Every year: Monitor total yearly expendituresagainst the estimates of expenditures for all years of the census cycle prepared in advance

42. 6. Controlling expenditures6.2 Expenditure control procedures • Given the large amount of expenditure involved in a census, some control procedures have to be introduced to ensure the efficient use of funds • Often a system ofexpenditure control procedures is designed and put in place by the funding agency • It is important to prepare complete and clear guidelines on financial policies and procedures

43. 6. Controlling expenditures6.3 Control of flows of funds to field offices For a census office which usually operates through its field personnel at various administrative levels, an efficient cost and control system should be set up to ensure an easy control of the flows of fundsfrom the central office to the field offices

44. 6. Controlling expenditures6.3 Control of flows of funds to field offices Example: • The central office issues fund allotments for a census administrative area, such as a provincial office • The province then sub-allots amounts to the different areas under its supervision for their operational expenses, broken down as required (for instance: salaries and wages, travelling expenses, supplies and materials, etc.)  Field staff should be able to draw an amount, depending on the needs of the office, for the quarter but not beyond the cash ceiling allowance for that particular itemof operating expenses

45. 6. Controlling expenditures6.4 Keeping account of expenditures  The budget staff of the central office should keep a regular account of fund disbursements, reflecting all types of expenditure incurred  The account should also show on a current basis the amount spent for a project together with the unspent balance  It is useful to adopt of a coding system whereby every type of expenditure is identified with a code number

46. 6. Controlling expenditures6.5 Progress reports on expenditure and output A prerequisite for establishing expenditure control is the availability of information on expenditure incurred and the corresponding output of work Progress reports should be prepared at regular intervals (for instance: once a month) Progress reports should be compatible with the form in which both the work plan and the financial outline have been prepared

47. 6. Controlling expenditures6.5 Progress reports on expenditure and output Progress reports should include information on: 1) Expenditure incurred 2) Corresponding output achieved …and if possible also on: 3) Outputs expected to be achieved in the subsequent month 4) Outputs expected to be achieved in the current year as a whole