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CRGAQS: New CAMx 2018 Results

CRGAQS: New CAMx 2018 Results. Presentation to the Gorge Study Technical Team ENVIRON International Corporation Alpine Geophysics, LLC May 17, 2007. Today’s Presentation. Latest 2018 CAMx simulations Correction to 2018 emissions Results for the August 2004 episode

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CRGAQS: New CAMx 2018 Results

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  1. CRGAQS:New CAMx 2018 Results Presentation to the Gorge Study Technical Team ENVIRON International Corporation Alpine Geophysics, LLC May 17, 2007

  2. Today’s Presentation • Latest 2018 CAMx simulations • Correction to 2018 emissions • Results for the August 2004 episode • Results for the five “what if” scenarios and the August episode • Results for the November 2004 episode • Next Steps

  3. 2018 Emissions • Taken from WRAP 2018 SMOKE IDA files • Exceptions: • Uses 2004 emissions for: • Biogenics • Fires • Natural wind-blown dust • Ammonia sources

  4. Corrections to 2018 Emissions • Application of temporal allocation factors to better distribute emissions throughout the year • Previously emissions distributed uniformly throughout the year • Resulted in unrealistic conditions, such as residential wood combustion during August episode

  5. What-if Scenarios • Case 01 – zero Boardman emissions • Case 02 – zero NH3 emissions for PSAT region 5 (east of Gorge) • Case 03 – zero on-road mobile source emissions for PSAT region 2 (Portland and Vancouver) • Case 04 – zero major point source emissions for PSAT region 2 • Case 05 – zero major point source emissions for PSAT region 1 (in-Gorge)

  6. PSAT Regions

  7. What-If Scenarios • Following slides are presented with no emissions scale • This is to show that emissions changes indeed were incorporated into the modeling as expected

  8. Case 01 What-If Scenario(Zero Boardman) Grid Cell (103, 50) Location as derived From EPA data Grid Cell (103, 52) 2018 zero Boardman (note that Morrow County has no emissions) 2018 Base Case (data from WRAP Note: Boardman position change)

  9. Case 02 What-If Scenario(No Ammonia East of Gorge) Ammonia Emissions (All Sources)

  10. Case 03 What-If Scenario(Zero On-Road Mobile Portland) On-Road Mobile Source CO On-Road Mobile Source NOX

  11. Case 04 What-If Scenario(Zero Portland Point Sources) • Area highlighted in blue is PSAT region 2 (Portland-Vancouver) • Major stationary sources with CO emissions are shown • Figure on left is 2018 base case • Figure on right is the Case 04 What-If Scenario

  12. Case 05 What-If Scenario(Zero Gorge Point Sources) • Area highlighted in blue is PSAT region 1 (In-Gorge) • Major stationary sources with CO emissions are shown • Figure on left is 2018 base case • Figure on right is the Case 05 What-If Scenario

  13. 2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)

  14. 2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)

  15. 2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)

  16. 2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)

  17. 2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)

  18. 2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)

  19. 2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)

  20. 2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)

  21. Next Steps • Finish November 2004 Episode What If Scenarios • Apply modeled changes to observed levels • Use variant of EPA RRF projection procedure • Run PM Source Apportionment Technology • 2004/2018, August/ November • Complete Report

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