Changing Climate: Implications, Responses and Vulnerability (People’s Perspective)

1. Changing Climate: Implications, Responses and Vulnerability(People’s Perspective) • Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization • Nepal Engineering College Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

2. Vulnerability Concept (A Case of Lubhu, Nepal)

3. Methods: Capturing Local Perception on Changing Climate Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) Household Questionnaire Survey Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

4. Perception on Changes in Attributes of Temperature FGD: A gradual increase in summer period after 1980s and large increase in the 2000s. Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

5. LOCAL STATEMENTS ON CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE "Prior to 1980s, winter used to begin by Kartik (October/November) and the peak winter season months used to extend from November second week to mid February (Mangsir to Magh). In 2000s, winter began much later and ended earlier” "Before 25/26 years, Thato, icy film used to form above water level on the ditches but now it has been 10-15 years, winter is not that cold" "The maximum temperature has been rising in such a manner; I assume there won't be winter season during my grand-daughters period" Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

6. Findings Contd…. Perception on Changes in Attributes of Rainfall • In 2000s, unusual changes in the pattern of rainfall, rainfall no more predictable • Changes in the rainfall pattern more stressful than the changes in the total annual rainfall Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

7. LOCAL STATEMENTS ON CHANGES IN RAINFALL “Persistent rainfall lasting over days and nights (Sat din sat rat jhari, Shaunejahri , ShoraShraddhaJhari, Maghejhari) was common prior to 1980s but has been declining over with larger decline in 2000s” “The rainfall can no more be predicted now” "There has been decrease in the annual rainfall. The dry spells are getting longer. Had there been winter rain, it would have recharged the spring sources!" Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

8. Implications of Changing Climate Social consequences of changes in climatic attributes Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

9. Implications of Climate Changing Climate Contd... Water Resources • Natural spring sources adversely affected by rainfall variability resulting decline in the yield of spring sources and stone spouts, and even complete vanishing • Decline in the number of seasonal springs that used to emerge following the monsoon season • Changes in water sources by compounded implications of climate change and urbanization Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

10. Implications of Climate Changing Climate Contd... "Due to increase in temperature, pests have increased. Had there been frost by now, the pests would have died due to cold! Mosquito exist for almost entire year since last 3-4 years.” MaobadiJhar, Navo, Madila, Tantane, Pire (Polygonumbarbatum), Mothe (Cyperusdifformis), Baspate, Panighans appeared in rice field and progressively increased in 2000s. "The road used to be covered with earthworms but since 4-5 years it has disappeared" Local Statements on Weeds and Pests Occurrences Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

11. Responses and Adaptive Practices Drying of water sources: Ferrying of Water from Neighbors/ Neighboring VDCs and Reliance on the Market Solutions Capturing Roof Top Runoff Increasing number of dug wells at households Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

12. Responses and Adaptive Practices Contd…. • Shift towards low water demanding crop varieties (Taichin-242 and Tainan- 176 to Khumal-4) • Declining wheat, increasing pea, barley, musur, soyabean • Leaving the land fallow, leasing out land during winter; • Deviation away from agriculture, Small farm based garden based on household groundwater sources Mustard and wheat saplings covered by straw for moisture retention Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

13. Responses and Adaptive Practices Contd…. Wastewater Irrigation Initiation of charging irrigation service fee Technological Innovations Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

14. Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment Based on five different capitals Eleven components and Fourtyone sub-components/ indocators Calculated by Balanced Weighted Average Approach Each of the indicators is measured on a different scale and need to standardize each as an index. The value of each component is calculated by using the index value of concerned indicators. The range of LVI is scaled from 0 (least vulnerable) to 1 (most vulnerable).

16. Livelihood Vulnerability Index

17. Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment (Based on IPCC Concept) Vulnerability= (Exposure –Adaptive capacity) * Sensitivity The values ranges from -1 (least vulnerable) to +1 (most vulnerable).

19. Growing impression among the local people on the changing climate. • Direct and indirect impacts of climate change noticed by the local people. • Adaptive strategies coming up at household level and community level against the adverse impacts of changes in climatic attributes. • Lubhu, the most vulnerable VDC among the four peri-urban sites. Conclusion Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization

20. The Way Forwards • Communicate the knowledge on the climatic uncertainty to the local level. • Exploring the local adaptation practices to identify the strengths and weaknesses for creating climate resilient community. • Replicating the successful measures to enhance and expand the climatic resilience of wider community. • Local level institutions and local community can play major role and need to be capacitated.

21. THANK YOU Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization