Climate Change and Vulnerability

1. Sarah Lindley, University of Manchester Climate Change and Vulnerability October 16th 2012, Preston

2. Vulnerability • Vulnerability is a matter of how external stresses impact on well-being. An individual or group is of greater vulnerability if they are less able to respond to stresses placed on well-being. • The central question: how is vulnerability distributed across different individuals and groups? • However, the characterisation of vulnerability raises a number of prior questions: • How should well-being be conceptualised and measured? • What factors are relevant to understanding how external stresses convert into changes in well-being? • To what degree is the vulnerability specific to a particular hazard?

3. Socio-spatial vulnerability • Incorporates space and time with personal, social and environmental conversion factors • Geographical expression of the potential for an event to convert into the loss of wellbeing • Each of five dimensions reveals a different picture and requires different actions Ability to prepare Exposure (Enhanced) Sensitivity Adaptive capacity Ability to respond Ability to recover Vulnerability Exposure • But understanding related climate disadvantage requires consideration of the potential for contact with a heat-related event too Climate disadvantage Hazard

4. Socio-spatial heat vulnerability domains

5. Socio-spatial flood vulnerability domains

6. Key findings • Uneven geographical distributions of climate-related socio-spatial vulnerability in the UK are sensitive to the dimension of vulnerability being considered. • Overall, most extremely socially vulnerable locations are urban and there is a strong coastal component.

7. Socio-spatial flood vulnerability in England Coastal Built-up areas, basement dwellings e.g. possible insurance access issues

8. Socio-spatial heat vulnerability in England Lowland, inland, high % HHs >= 5th floor e.g. low GP access

9. Key findings • There is evidence of joint socio-spatial vulnerabilities in the UK – up to 2/3 of the top 10% most socially vulnerable neighbourhoods were so for both flood & heat • Key socially vulnerable groups could be identified, associated with: • Poverty and deprivation • New residents • Mobility and access • Sensitivity • Enhanced exposure • Superimposing measures of hazard-exposure shows an uneven pattern of climate disadvantage

10. Flood disadvantage • Some areas have both high socio spatial vulnerability and high potential for hazard-exposure

11. Warrington Warrington Socio-spatial index results are contextualized by considering the potential for flood exposure in individual neighbourhoods It should be noted that flood exposure measure in this study is limited to a % unit area cover by moderate or significant flood zones Warrington

12. Warrington

13. Regional breakdowns • Extremely socially flood vulnerable • Extremely flood disadvantaged

14. Heat disadvantage in England • London’s high average socio-spatial heat vulnerability is coupled with a tendency for higher temperatures • There high social vulnerability with respect to heat makes some part of the North West relatively disadvantaged. • There is also a differential in the tolerance of high temperatures from place to place • Alternative measures required

15. Neighbourhood level results (heat) • High sensitivity but determined by ill-health rather than age. Around 30% of people reported having a LLTI compared to English mean of 18% • High potential for enhanced exposure 28% of households are located on the 5th floor or above compared to an English average of 1% • Poor adaptive capacity, e.g. • Lower resource: average weekly incomes £240 compared to £390 • Potential for poorer social networks: Higher than average numbers of single pensioner HHs, lone parents with dependent children • Less control of home environments:11% of HHs social tenants compared to 6% ? How can the results be explained for one of England’s most socially heat vulnerable neighbourhoods?

16. Adaptation measures Retrofitting, e.g. shading (louvres, etc.) e.g. flood gates socket relocation Soft engineering - Increase vegetation/other impervious cover Manage UHI, esp. during summer months Insurance provision Defences Land use Buildings & housing Adaptation Emergency services Social care Understanding pressure points Raising awareness of who to help and how Building social networks Community action Enhancing mobility Challenges: How to adapt against summer heat whilst maintaining winter benefits. Developed in collaboration with Aleks Kazmierczak, 2011

17. Conclusions • Climate adaptation policy needs to be understood much more broadly than is often supposed to take account of • the full range of losses in well-being • not just direct impacts, but losses in well-being that are a consequence of the insecurity of increased likelihood of events • The North West has relatively high socio-spatial vulnerability • Despite some core similarities, there are specific challenges which vary from place to place, therefore adaptation strategies and measures need to • target specific places and groups • be informed by multi-dimensional assessments of social vulnerability • Almost all areas will have some socially vulnerable people but the key characteristics of areas can help in designing local measures • e.g. Frequency & type of information; actors and agencies to involve; nature of support and its delivery