The New Power-Duration Model in WKO4 November 19, 2013 | Andrew R. Coggan, Ph.D.

1. The New Power-Duration Model in WKO4 November 19, 2013 | Andrew R. Coggan, Ph.D.

2. Importance of new power-duration model

3. Performance Manager Chart in WKO4

4. How do you evaluate mathematical models? • Statistical criteria • F test • Runs test • AIC • Residuals • Distribution • Magnitude • Bias • Parameter estimates • Number • Independence • Precision • External validation

5. Models of the power-duration relationship CP1-10 CP 3-parameter CP3-30 AIS Pinot and Grappe Ward-Smith )

6. Limitations of other models: residuals CP1-10 CP 3-parameter CP3-30 AIS Ward-Smith Pinot and Grappe

7. Limitations of other models: validation CP1-10 CP 3-parameter CP3-30 AIS Ward-Smith Pinot and Grappe (n/a)

8. Conclusions None of the presently-available models provide a satisfactory description of the entire power-duration relationship. A new model must therefore be developed.

9. The new power-duration model in WKO4 Part III: Introduction of a superior approach

10. Modeled vs. actual data: WKO4 model

11. Definitions of terms • Pmax – the maximal power that can be generated for a very short period of time. Units are W or W/kg. • Functional reserve capacity (FRC) – the total amount of work that can be done during continuous exercise above FTP before fatigue occurs. Units are kJ or J/kg. • Functional threshold power (FTP) – the highest power that can be sustained in a quasi-steady-state for a prolonged period of time. Units are W or W/kg

12. Intellectual property rights • Registered trademarks are being pursued for the following new terms – unauthorized use is expressly prohibited: • Power-Duration Curve™ • Power Duration Curve™ • P-D curve™ / PD Curve™ • Power-Duration History Chart™ • Power Duration History Chart™ • Functional Reserve Capacity™ • FRC™ • Dynamic Functional Reserve Capacity™ • dFRC™ • Rider Phenotyping™

13. Modeled vs. actual data: WKO4 model

14. Distribution of normalized residuals: WKO4 model

15. Normalized residuals vs. duration: WKO4 model

16. Independence of param. estimates: WKO4 model Correlation matrix for WKO4 model

17. CVs of model fit parameters

18. Model fit parameters in WKO4

19. External validation: WKO4 model

20. External validation: WKO4 model

21. WKO4 vs. other models “It ain’tbraggin’ if you can back it up”

22. Limitations of other models: residuals CP1-10 CP 3-parameter CP3-30 AIS Ward-Smith Pinot and Grappe

23. Normalized residuals vs. duration: WKO4 model

24. Comparison of root mean squared errors

25. Comparison of FTP prediction

26. Comparison of parameter estimates

27. CP2-15 overestimates maximal steady-state McLellan TM, Cheung KSY. A comparative evaluation of the individual anaerobic threshold and the critical power. Med Sci Sports Exerc1992; 24:543-550.

28. CP1-10 overestimates maximal steady-state Brickely G, Doust J, Williams CA. Physiological responses during exercise to exhaustion at critical power. Eur J ApplPhysiol2002; 88:146-151.

29. CP2-15 overestimates maximal steady-state Pringle JSM, Jones AM. Maximal lactate steady state, critical power and EMG during cycling. Eur J ApplPhysiol2002; 88:214-226.

30. Comparison of parameter estimates

31. FRC vs. W’

32. Pmax vs. 1 s power

33. Model is sensitive to changes across years

34. Model is sensitive to changes across years

35. Model is sensitive to changes w/in a year

36. Power-duration history chart in WKO4

37. Application of the model to running

38. Application of the model to swimming

39. Application of the model to skating

40. The new power-duration model in WKO4 • The most advanced mathematical model of the exercise intensity-duration relationship ever developed.

41. Next week: the final installment! Current (i.e., WKO4) and possible future applications of the new power-duration model will be presented and discussed.