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The Institutional Consequences of a ‘Hard Brexit’

The Institutional Consequences of a ‘Hard Brexit’. Introduction.  Hypothesis: ‘Hard Brexit’ - No withdrawal agreement - No transition - No framework for future relations  Unlikely but not impossible - Northern Irish question. Structure. 1) Institutional implications.

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The Institutional Consequences of a ‘Hard Brexit’

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  1. The Institutional Consequences of a ‘Hard Brexit’

  2. Introduction Hypothesis: ‘Hard Brexit’ - No withdrawal agreement - No transition - No framework for future relations Unlikely but not impossible - Northern Irish question

  3. Structure 1) Institutional implications 2) Budgetary implications 3) Policy implications 4) Conclusions

  4. 1) Institutional implications EU institutions: ‘Hard Brexit’ = Brexit - European Council - Council - Commission - Parliament - Court of Justice - Central Bank Immediate effect Until end of mandate No effect

  5. 2) Budgetary implications EU budget: ‘Hard Brexit’ -> major challenge for budget 2019 & 2020 But from a legal viewpoint: UK has already accepted obligation to pay -> good faith under international law Difficulties due to lack of mandatory adjudication forum and enforcement

  6. 3) Policy implications EU policy: ‘Hard Brexit’ -> major changes particularly in fields: a) Commerce & trade No more free movement + WTO b) Security & Justice No more AFSJ cooperation + CoE Particular challenges for Ireland

  7. Conclusion ‘Hard Brexit’ = negative scenario Implications: limited for EU institutions but major for EU budget and policies Possible contingency measures: - GATT Art. XXIV(3) -> customs - Intergov’t cooperation -> security But risks and legal limitations

  8. Presentation by Federico FABBRINI Full Professor of EU Law & Director, Brexit Institute – Dublin City University Policy Department Citizens’ Rights and Constitutional Affairs Responsible Administrator: Eeva ERIKSSON poldep-citizens@europarl.europa.eu

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