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Disentangling evolution and plasticity in adult sockeye migration date:

Disentangling evolution and plasticity in adult sockeye migration date:. a new method provides evidence of evolutionary change. Lisa Crozier Mark Scheuerell Rich Zabel. NWFSC, NOAA-Fisheries. Many populations have shifted the timing of life-history events in recent decades.

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Disentangling evolution and plasticity in adult sockeye migration date:

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  1. Disentangling evolution and plasticity in adult sockeye migration date: a new method provides evidence of evolutionary change Lisa Crozier Mark Scheuerell Rich Zabel NWFSC, NOAA-Fisheries

  2. Many populations have shifted the timing of life-history events in recent decades mean shift towards earlier spring timing of 2.3 days per decade 423 / 484 spp (87%) Parmesan & Yohe 2003 Nature 83.8% of 25,532 species earlier, avg 3.9 days per decade Thackeray 2010 GCB

  3. Okanogan ESU Osoyoos Lake British Columbia Okanogan River L. Wenatchee ESU Okanogan R. Columbia R. Montana Washington Lower Granite Dam Idaho Snake R. Columbia R. Bonneville Dam Salmon R. Grande Ronde R. Bonneville Dam Salmon R. Basin Oregon Redfish L. Redfish Lake

  4. July 9 July 4 June 29 June 24 Sockeye migrate ~10.3 days earlier than in the 1940s Median migration date

  5. Summer and fall Chinook also changing Crozier et al 2008. Evolutionary applications 1: 252-270

  6. The Columbia River has warmed dramatically over the 20th century July temp (oC)

  7. Temperature (oC) High temperature blocks migration Number of Chinook 10 year avg Chinook counts and daily mean temperature at Lower Granite Dam

  8. This blockout period is lengthening Temperature (oC) Number of Chinook 10 year avg Chinook counts and daily mean temperature at Lower Granite Dam

  9. Disentangling plastic and genetic change is important for predictive modeling and to avoid negative anthropogenic impacts Evolution: adaptive genetic change in response to natural selection Plasticity: non-genetic response to environmental variation

  10. 1st approach: simple linear regression shows flow-timing relationship

  11. But the relationship differs in the early and late time periods

  12. 2nd approach • Quantify historical selection pressure • Combine selection and plastic response in predictive model of annual migration date • Compare predicted and observed timing through model selection (AIC) (evolution, plasticity, or both)

  13. Survival ~ temperature Survival to spawning grounds Daily mean temperature at Bonneville Dam (oC) Crozier et al 2011. American Naturalist avail. online October

  14. Annual selection differential(Median migration day of initial population – survivors) ^ S = -1.05 β = -0.011 Crozier et al 2011. American Naturalist avail. online October

  15. State-space model Median offspring cohort migration date ~ • Median parental cohort migration date • The response to selection on parents (~h2S) • Environmental effects on parents • Environmental effects on offspring Crozier et al 2011. American Naturalist avail. online October

  16. Potential triggers of plasticity • Ocean conditions • Upwelling strength • PDO • NPGO • NPI • River conditions • Flow • Temperature • Population interactions/ proportions

  17. Results: Model Comparison Model-Average Results

  18. Model prediction r2 = 0.80 h2 = 0.49 β = -0.011 0.031 haldanes Crozier et al 2011. American Naturalist avail. online October

  19. 33-66% of trend (3-6 days) ~ Selection remainder ~ Flow Drivers of overall trend Change in migration date

  20. Summary • We found strong support for a role for selection, indicating that sockeye have likely been adapting to recent climate change • Both plastic and evolutionary responses appear important • These results are highly robust to uncertainty in selection function Crozier et al 2011. American Naturalist avail. online October

  21. Caveats • Costs to earlier migration: energetic costs of holding pre-spawn mortality loss of feeding opportunity • Fishery-induced evolution also likely • Multiple populations make h2 estimate rough

  22. Conclusions • Evolution is contributing to phenotypic responses to environmental change in salmon • Hydrosystem management will likely affect both the strength of selection and the effectiveness of plastic cues for migration timing • Life-history trends reflect both heritable and non-heritable traits. Constraints on phenotypic evolution are not well understood, and might limit future responses to climate change

  23. Thank you! • George Naughton, Matt Keefer, Jeffery Fryer and collaborators for amazing tracking of sockeye through the Columbia Basin • All the fish counters at dams • Northwest Fisheries Science Center, and NOAA-Fisheries for data sharing infrastructure and financial support

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