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How does drug policy affect the illicit drugs market?. Franz Trautmann Trimbos Institute www.trimbos.nl. Based on Trimbos/RAND study on global illicit drugs markets 1998-2007 (ed. Reuter and Trautmann). Covering: Analysis of the operation of the global market for illicit drugs
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How does drug policy affect the illicit drugs market? Franz Trautmann Trimbos Institute www.trimbos.nl
Based on Trimbos/RAND study on global illicit drugs markets 1998-2007 (ed. Reuter and Trautmann) Covering: • Analysis of the operation of the global market for illicit drugs • Cocaine, heroin, marijuana, Amphetamine Type Stimulants (ATS) • Estimating seize of the market • Estimating economic costs of drug use • What has happened to the market 1998-2007 • What were the policies of the period • How did these policies affect the markets • Analysing unintended consequences of drug policy
Outline • Drug policy 1998-2007: • Demand reduction • Supply reduction • Drug problems 1998-2007: • Consumption • Supply • Unintended consequences • Policy analysis
General policy trends • Drug policy expenditures in many countries increased substantially • The biggest share of expenditures for supply reduction • Measures against production and trafficking intensified substantially • Demand and harm reduction measures intensified and (the latter) spread to more nations
Convergence of policies: demand side • Strong political support for prevention • Growing emphasis on proven effective programmes • Few demonstrated programs of even modest effectiveness • Many implemented programs ineffective • Increasing budgetary and political support for treatment • OST is spreading • Even to unlikely countries, e.g. China, Iran • In 26 of 27 EU Member States
Convergence of policies: demand side • Other Harm Reduction measures also spreading • Syringe Exchange Programs now in many countries • Even in U.S. though not with federal support • Reduced willingness to punish drug users • More decriminalization of drug use, mostly marijuana • Administrative sanctions for possession of small quantities for personal use • Few arrestees are incarcerated Emphasis on pushing arrested addicts into treatment
Convergence of policies: supply side • Increasing toughness towards sellers • More arrested • Longer statutory sentences • Longer actual sentences • US exceptional in numbers incarcerated • European intensity probably one tenth
Drug-law offences / arrests • In most countries use and possession still account for majority of arrests • cannabis offences dominate • Very few cannabis arrests lead to prison sentences
Drug consumption Western drug use largely stable or declining • Marijuana prevalence rates among youth falling • Some exceptions • Heroin dependent population aging and declining • Cocaine rising in Europe, falling in US • ATS patterns complex but numbers still rather small (with some exceptions, e.g. CZ)
Experimentation with cannabis is common in Western countries
Consumption indicators for non-Western countries are weak • Cannabis use generally much lower than in US • e.g. 2005 survey Mexico City: 3.2% of 12-17 year olds report ever using marijuana • U.S figure 10 times as high • Heroin use stable except for major epidemic in Russia and Central Asia • Cocaine use slight outside of Western countries and a few in South America • Mexico still modest use levels despite its trans-shipment role • ATS unclear • Prevalence figures are stabilising in some (advanced) transitional countries in the past decade. • Drug use prevalence increased in developing countries.
Supply side changes modest: opiates and cocaine • The production of opiates and cocaine is concentrated in very few countries • Afghanistan is by far the main producer of opium, Colombia of coca • No changes which countries produce, just some shifts in distribution across countries
Supply side changes unclear and rather negative: ATS • ATS production is spread over several countries; • The number of production countries increased in past decade; • New producers: in particular transitional countries; • ATS production diverse, from small-scale kitchen laboratories to large industrial-scale laboratories; • Some shifts in quantities produced from countries with intensified control to countries with less control.
Supply side changes diffuse and rather negative: Cannabis • Cannabis production in more than 172 countries. • Cannabis resin production more concentrated than cannabis herb production; • cannabis resin in 58 • 116 for cannabis herb production. • Mexico and Morocco only large scale exporters but account for small share of total consumption • An increasing number of countries are involved in cannabis herb production. • Cannabis herb production takes diverse forms, from small-scale home growing to large-scale agricultural business
Supply side changes: trafficking • Impact of anti-trafficking measures on quantities trafficked hard to measure • Seizures indicator for trafficking routes rather than for trafficked quantities • Changes in trafficking routes occur every few years • Central Asia heroin trafficking post-1995 • West African cocaine route post-2005
Unintended policy consequences on drugs market • Increasing interdiction rates for trafficking may lead to greater export demand; • Violence of producers, traffickers, dealers and users as response to tougher enforcement; • Large black markets generate incentives for corruption; • Environmental and health damage caused by enforcement induced replacement of big methamphetamine laboratories by smaller labs using varying ingredients
Despite supply reduction efforts: prices have declined, e.g. in EU
Control efforts have minimal effect on global drug supply Examples: • Increased control efforts not reflected in prices of illicit drugs, especially in Western countries • Policy can reduce the nature and location of harms related to production and trafficking • Interventions can affect where production and trafficking occurs • Balloon effect: control efforts in Peru and Bolivia shift production to Colombia • 'Closing' of Netherlands Antilles smuggling route for cocaine to Europe may have supported West African route
Drug policy has limited effects on drug demand • Drug use is driven by broader social, economic and cultural factors • Policy measures can not affect: • Whether an epidemic starts • Severity of epidemic • Prevalence of dependence • Policy can reduce harmfulness of drug use • Drug problems drive drug policy
Selection of 18 countries for detailed study Criteria for selecting countries • Size (China and India) • Major role in production and/or trafficking (Iran and Colombia) • Major consumers (the United States) • Coverage of all regions of the globe • Substantial differences in the drugs problem they face (production, trafficking and use) • Differences in societal changes during the past ten years; • Western • Transitional • Developing
Principal methodological issues • No primary data collection • Analysed available data sources • EMCDDA, UNODC, national studies, expert opinion • Conceptual challenges: • Differences across nations in concepts and terminology (e.g. problem drug use) • Empirical challenges: • Data quality (e.g. political interests) • Data scarcity • Data inconsistency (e.g. differences in age groups and periods covered) • Data on non-Western countries extremely limited