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Jim Kinter Center for Ocean-Land - Atmosphere Studies -and- George Mason University

The PhD Program in Climate Dynamics at George Mason University Prospects for an Inter -disciplinary Institute on Environment and Society. Jim Kinter Center for Ocean-Land - Atmosphere Studies -and- George Mason University. The dynamics of climate is an

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Jim Kinter Center for Ocean-Land - Atmosphere Studies -and- George Mason University

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  1. The PhD Program in Climate Dynamics at George MasonUniversityProspects for anInter-disciplinary Institute on Environment and Society Jim Kinter Center for Ocean-Land- Atmosphere Studies -and- George Mason University

  2. The dynamics of climate is an interesting scientific problem… Precipitation patterns are affected by Atmospheric circulation (e.g. Hadley and other meridionalcells) which is in turn influenced by Sea surface temperature Land surface state

  3. What do we mean by “climate”? • The statistical distribution in space (lat., long., alt.) and time of • atmospheric quantities: temperature, pressure, moisture, etc. • oceanic quantities: temperature, salinity and current • land surface quantities: soil moisture and canopy evapotranspiration • cryospherequantities such as sea ice cover and land ice volume • There is no unambiguous definition • Variability on time-scales of a few days or less: “weather” • Variability on time-scales of a few weeks or more: “climate” • BUT … the scientific problem of predicting weather and climate is essentially a single “seamless” problem

  4. Two big ideas informing our work: CHAOS PREDICTABILITY Prof. Ed Lorenz Prof. J. Shukla

  5. Chaos Sensitive dependence on initial conditions Lorenz showed that small perturbations (“ the flapping of a butterfly’s wings”) can lead to changes in the atmospheric state on all scales and that unpredictable small-scale eddies influence larger scale eddies such that the uncertainty transfers upscale  Predictability of weather limited to a few weeks Climate Predictability Time and space averages may be more predictable Dynamics of ocean and land surface have longer intrinsic time- scales than atmosphere External forcing may also have long time-scales orbital variations  ice ages CO2 emissions  global warming

  6. Climate Variability

  7. Climate Impacts

  8. How do we address such problems? • Hypothesis testing • Planetary-scale phenomena require planetary-scale experiments … BUT … • You can’t mess with Mother Nature: experimenting on the only planet we have is bad idea • Prediction • Using past data to project future conditions • Both require sophisticated models

  9. Climate Dynamics PhD ProgramAtmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences Department George Mason Universityhttp://aoes.gmu.edu/academics/graduate/climate

  10. GMU Ph.D. Program in Climate Dynamics Affiliated with the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences (AOES) and theCenter for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) Faculty • T. DelSole; Ph.D., Harvard Univ. • P. Dirmeyer; Ph.D., Univ. of Maryland • E. Jin; Ph.D., Seoul National Univ. • B. Huang; Ph.D., Univ. of Maryland • V. Krishnamurthy; Ph.D., M.I.T. • J. Lu; Ph.D., Dalhousie Univ. • J. Kinter; Ph.D., Princeton Univ. B. Klinger; Ph.D., M.I.T./Woods Hole Ocean. Inst. E. Schneider; Ph.D., Harvard Univ. P. Schopf; Ph.D., Princeton Univ. J. Shukla (director); Ph.D., B.H.U.; Sc.D., M.I.T C. Stan; Ph.D., Colorado State Univ. D. Straus (chair); Ph.D., Cornell Univ.

  11. GMU Ph.D. Program in Climate Dynamics

  12. GMU Ph.D. Program in Climate Dynamics

  13. A. Badger (Dirmeyer) • G. Bucher (Boybeyi) • H. Chen (Schneider) • I. Colfescu (Schneider) • X. Feng (Lu) • A. Garuba (Klinger) • A. Hazra (Klinger) • Y. Jin (Stan) • L. Krishnamurthy • (Krishnamurthy) • E. Lajoie (DelSole) • J. Nattala(Kinter) • E. Palipane (Lu) • M. Scafonas (Lu) • B. Singh (Krishnamurthy) • A. Srivastava (Shukla/Huang) • E. Stofferahn (Boybeyi) • E. Swenson (Straus) • X. Yan (DelSole) GMU Ph.D. Program in Climate Dynamics Current Graduate Students (Advisors) • Bold = 2012/13 graduate

  14. Weather and Climate Pagehttp://aoes.gmu.edu/academics/graduate/climate

  15. Tools for Examining Virginia Weather and Climate

  16. Climate Impacts

  17. Societal Impacts

  18. Drivers • America’s Climate Choices • (USGCRP) National Climate Assessment • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  19. George Mason University Institute of Global Environmental and Society Goals • To study and better understand the challenges of global environmental change, sustainability, and resiliency in the 21st century, including the interactions among physical, biological and social systems. • To enhance the academic programs of, and facilitate active interaction among, the several outstanding research and education efforts on environment and sustainability at George Mason University. • To provide an objective assessment of projected environmental changes, especially for the Commonwealth of Virginia, with science-based strategies for adaptation and mitigation policy options. Inaugural Director: J. Shukla

  20. Mason Climate Centers Jim Kinter • Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies • Center for Climate Change Communication • Center for Climate and Society • Center for Global Ethics Ed Maibach Tom Lovejoy Andrew Light

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