Understanding Global Population Change

1. UNIT 1: Changing Population Processes of population change

2. IB Objectives

3. Enquiry question: What are the processes of population change over time? • Why:  So that we can understand the factors that influence population structure and dependency ratios • How: Analyzing the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) and population pyramids

4. Source: KOGNITY

5. Source: KOGNITY

8. Example answer- what mark would this get? What did the examiner say?

9. Notes on global population growth • World’s population is growing rapidly • Most growth is recent – doubling time is reducing • Up to 95% of growth is in LEDC’s • Growth can be described as exponential – meaning accelerating growth. BUT • Population is expected to stabilize by 2050

11. Natural Increase: The growth in population resulting from an excess of births over deaths

12. Map to show Natural Increase

14. Population growth by region • Annual growth rate measured by subtracting death rate from birth rate • Most regions shown increased growth except for Europe which is in decline. • Largest growth is in Africa

15. How can we explain the process of population growth and natural increase?

16. Task: Draw the DTM from memory

17. Demographic transition model What do you know?…………. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dK3mL35nkk&feature=player_embedded

19. Fertility Aims: Define the term Crude birth rate Explain patterns of crude birth rates in contrasting parts of the world

20. You're starting a family !

22. Key Terms • Crude Birth Rate (CBR)The most common measure of fertility. This gives the average annual number of births during a year per 1,000 persons in the population at midyear; also known as crude birth rate. The birth rate is usually the dominant factor in determining the rate of population growth. It depends on both the level of fertility and the age structure of the population. CBR= total number of births x1000 total population

23. Why is it crude? Is this an effective measure?

24. Map to show crude birth rates

25. Key terms • Total Fertility Rate (TFR)This entry gives a figure for the average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given fertility rate at each age. The total fertility rate (TFR) is a more direct measure of the level of fertility than the crude birth rate, since it refers to births per woman

26. Map to show fertility rates

28. Place the factors affecting fertility in a ‘diamond 9’ shape, with most important at the top and least important at the bottom • Annotate to explain why you have arranged the statements in this order

29. Any Contraceptive Use, Developing Countries Married Women 15 to 49 Using Any Method, Late 1990s Percent

30. What are the factors that influence Fertility? Socio-economic factors • The value and welfare of children • The value and status of women • Religion and cultural practices

31. What are the factors that influence Fertility? • Institutional Policies • Government policy • Religion

33. Factors affecting fertility rate – use Kognity section 1.2.3

34. Is there a negative relationship between CBR and GNI?

36. The patterns of fertility Describe the pattern of world fertility (4) Explain why there is this pattern (6)

37. Mrs Bennett will live to 92 Mortality Rates How long will you live?!

38. Key Terms • Crude Death Rate (CDR): The average annual number of deaths during a year per 1000 of the population. • Age-specific Death Rate: This shows the death rates per 1000 population by sex for age groups ‘under 1’, ‘1-4’, ‘5-15’, ’16-24’. ’25-34’, ’35-44’, ’45-54’, ’55-64’, ’65-74’, ’75-84’ and ’85 & over’ • Life expectancy: The average number of years to be lived by a group of people born in the same year, if mortality at each age remains constant in the future.

39. A Map to show the Crude Death Rate Describe the pattern shown on the map (4)

41. What factors affect the death rate? • Age structure • Gender • Residence • Occupation • Income • Literacy • Access to food • Medical facilities • Social class

42. Age • Some populations with a high proportion of elderly have a higher CDR. • Countries with a high proportion of the population made up of young people may have lower death rates (e.g. Mexico has 34% of the population under 15 and a CDR of 5 per 1000)

43. Gender It may also be true that women are physically more active throughout life; women do more of the 'physiotherapy of daily living', such as getting the shopping in and doing the housework, and exercise protects against many age-related conditions. There is growing evidence that women are biologically tougher than men. For example, we now know that female hormones protect women from heart disease, at least until the menopause. Taken from ' All about ageing' Help the Aged

44. Shelter/Residence In urban areas mortality rates are higher in areas of relative poverty such as shanty towns. Due to pollution and higher population densities. In rural areas mortality rates are generally higher.

45. Occupation

46. Income Life in Zimbabwe is shorter than anywhere else in the world, with the average person not expected to live to 40, a new UN report says. Correspondents say poverty, because of the crumbling economy, and deaths from Aids are responsible for the decline. Taken from 'Zimbabweans have 'shortest lives'' BBC News

47. Access to Food The hungry moans of the infants immediately strike you when you enter the therapeutic feeding centre in Gode town. There are 180 children here under the age of six, suffering from diseases related to severe malnutrition. Dr Zelalem, who runs the centre, says: "The most common diseases are respiratory infections, diahorrea, pneumonia and tuberculosis. "Up to five children are dying each day of such diseases." Taken from 'Eyewitness: Ethiopia's fatal famine'' BBC News

48. Medical Facilities Fewer children under the age of five are dying, thanks to immunisation programmes and anti-malaria measures, the UN children's agency, Unicef, says. Measles vaccinations, mosquito nets and increased rates of breast-feeding were said to have contributed to the fall. In sub-Saharan Africa, deaths from measles have been reduced by 75% due to increased vaccination coverage. In Vietnam, child mortality dropped by about 40% after 30,000 people were trained as health workers and paid to treat people in their own villages, Unicef said. Taken from 'Child mortality 'at record low'' BBC News

49. Social class • The poorer people in any population have higher mortality rates than the more affluent. In some countries, such as South Africa, this will also be reflected in racial groups.

50. Risk of early death (death under 60 years) Why may this pattern exist?