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iPort-VIS Site Specific Fog Forecasting at Munich Airport

iPort-VIS Site Specific Fog Forecasting at Munich Airport. Fog Remote Sensing and Modeling (FRAM) Workshop Halifax, 21-22 May 2008. Michael Rohn DWD Björn-Rüdiger Beckmann DWD Andreas Bott University Bonn. „Deutscher Wetterdienst“ in a nutshell. German meteorological service

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iPort-VIS Site Specific Fog Forecasting at Munich Airport

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  1. iPort-VISSite Specific Fog Forecasting at Munich Airport Fog Remote Sensing and Modeling (FRAM) Workshop Halifax, 21-22 May 2008 Michael Rohn DWD Björn-Rüdiger Beckmann DWD Andreas Bott University Bonn Beckmann, Bott, Rohn

  2. „Deutscher Wetterdienst“ in a nutshell German meteorological service Headquarter at Offenbach next door to Frankfurt Six regional centres Hamburg, Potsdam, Leipzig, Essen, Stuttgart, München Staff ~ 2400 One of various main tasks weather forecasting for aviation ... and we move to a new building soon … NEW OLD our minister our president Beckmann, Bott, Rohn

  3. Available products for visibility forecast at DWD • Visibility statistics at Munich Airport • Ideas to implement „site specific Fog forecast“ • Summary Beckmann, Bott, Rohn

  4. Products for Visibility at DWD Visibility forecasts currently provided with: MOS Model Output Statistics site specific forecasts Predictand: global Model GME (DWD) and ECMWF observations Based on MOS statistics: TAF-Guidance based on MOS site specific forecasts tuned to serve Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) including probabilities hourly update using latest observations Auto-Gafor accumulation within air traffic zones color coding related to Visibility + Ceiling Beckmann, Bott, Rohn

  5. Example: TAF Guidance Probabilities Visibility < 10 km < 5 km < 3 km < 1.5 km Beckmann, Bott, Rohn

  6. Ceiling [ft] 5000 2000 1000 500 VIS [Km] 1.5 5 8 10 Example: Auto-Gafor Beckmann, Bott, Rohn

  7. Available products for visibility forecast at DWD • Visibility statistics at Munich Airport • Ideas to implement „site specific Fog forecast“ • Summary Beckmann, Bott, Rohn

  8. RVR statistics Oct/2004 - Sep/2007 Why Munich ? Low Visibility Procedure: CAT II / CAT III Runway Visual Range (RVR) statistics for different German airports MUC MUC Beckmann, Bott, Rohn

  9. Fog duration statistics Sample 1993-2007 at WMO-station „10870“ Inauguration of new airport „Muenchen-FJS Int“ 17 May 1992 Situated in basin ( Alpes (South), Fränkische Alb (North), Bayrischer Wald (East) ) typical meteorological situation „forecaster experience“ High pressure with easterly flow during autumn and winter: frequent persistent fog events Strong easterly flow can dissolve fog cover in the afternoon due to the lee effect of the mountain area „Bayerischer Wald“ in the East. Beckmann, Bott, Rohn

  10. Available products for visibility forecast at DWD • Visibility statistics at Munich Airport • Ideas to implement „site specific Fog forecast“ • Summary Beckmann, Bott, Rohn

  11. iPort: background Log (budget) Aviation research program 2009-2012 „LuFo“ (Luftfahrtforschung) „ … international competiveness of aviation industry in Germany … „ (funded by Ministry of Economics (BMWI) through DLR )  iPort: „innovative Airport“ cooperation within LuFo 2009-2012 initiated by German Air Traffic Control (DFS) various topics on air traffic management  iPort-WX sub project related to „Weather“ iPort-VIS „Low Visibility“ sub project related to „Fog“ Beckmann, Bott, Rohn

  12. iPort-VIS: Forecast tool for Visibility Prototype for evaluation Visualization NinJo Model boundary COSMO-DE Fog forecast PAFOG iPort-VIS Local Observations Beckmann, Bott, Rohn

  13. iPort-VIS: Project partner University Bonn, Institute for Meteorology, Prof. Dr. Andreas Bott expertise for fog forecast model PAFOG / coupling with COSMO-DE definition of local observational system integration of local observation within PAFOG Software consultancy, EuMetSys Visualization in NinJo  meteorological workstation at DWD  support forecast work for air traffic Beckmann, Bott, Rohn

  14. Fog forecast with PAFOG PAFOG: Bott and Trautmann, 2002: Forecast Model of radiation fog and low-level stratiform clouds, Atmospheric Research, vol 64, 191-203. one-dimensional model for atmospheric boundary layer Vertical resolution surface fog condition: 0-200m  4m high level fog condition: 200-1500m  30m Initialization: surface and profile data: temperature, humidity, wind cloud cover (low, medium, high) surface type Useful forecast range : 0 - 12h (experience from verification) Update frequency: every 15 min, as Nowcasting tool „Mini ensemble“: 5 different soil types/profiles vicinity of airport Importance of Local observations: Bergot et al., 2005: Improved Site-Specific Numerical Prediction of Fog and Low Clouds, Weather and Forecasting, vol 20, 627-646. Beckmann, Bott, Rohn

  15. Instrumentation scenario 5x soil profile 1x tropospheric profile  Mircowave Radiometer Profiler (MWRP) radiation fluxes Ceiling + cloud cover • Ceilometer Problematic: observation tower to be avoided future: wind profile from combination of Wind LIDAR, X-band radar (separate project, currenty being planned for 2010) Beckmann, Bott, Rohn

  16. Radiometer: Example MWRP – Mirco Wave Radiometer Profile Vertical resolution 500m - 1000m Temporal resolution 10 min Experience Lindenberg Observatory (DWD) since 1998 Maintenance 2 calibrations / per year Comparison with radio sounding Beckmann, Bott, Rohn

  17. Radiometer: Example MWRP – Mirco Wave Radiometer Profiles MWRP compared to radio sounding Beckmann, Bott, Rohn

  18. Available products for visibility forecast at DWD • Visibility statistics at Munich Airport • Ideas to implement „site specific Fog forecast“ • Summary Beckmann, Bott, Rohn

  19. Summary iPort-VIS: site specific fog forecast with one-dimensional model PAFOG emphasis on integration of local observations Main goal: realize a prototype for evaluation under realistic conditions Status draft of project plan „Idea“ 9.02.2008 review by experts April 2008 review decision May 13-16 2008 workshop on instrument (Lindenberg) 5/6 June 2008 if „idea accepted“ detailed proposal 31th July 2008 earliest project start January-June 2009  Beckmann, Bott, Rohn

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