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Cross-assessment of CCI-ECVs over the Mediterranean domain

Recent progress and future plans in cross-assessing CCI-ECVs (Climate Change Initiative Essential Climate Variables) over the Mediterranean domain, specifically focusing on sea level and sea ice. Analysis of regional simulations and sensitivity experiments with CCI products. Results and conclusions discussed.

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Cross-assessment of CCI-ECVs over the Mediterranean domain

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  1. WP3.10 : Cross-assessment of CCI-ECVs over the Mediterranean domain • Recent progresses: • Extension of the confrontation with CCI-Sea level over the Mediterranean area : analysis of three coupled regional simulations (CNRM-RCSM, LMDZ-MED, MORCE-MED) and one Mediterranean Sea simulation (MED12) from the Med-Cordex multi-model ensemble. • Communication of results at the 9th HyMeX Workshop, (Mykonos, 21-25 September, 2015). • Submission of a publication entitled: « Improving the representation of Mediterranean sea level in regional climate models » (Adloff et al.).

  2. Regional models over the Mediterranean domaine: the two CNRM models CNRM-RCSM4 MED12 Atmosphere Ocean Ocean ALADIN-Climat ALDERA* ORAS4 Corrected with the mean annual cycle of the CCI-ECV Sea Level COMBINE NEMOMED12 NEMOMED8 Relaxation in the Atlantic buffer zone towards ocean reanalyses (COMBINE and corrected ORAS4)

  3. Mean seasonal cycle of Mediterranean sea levelover the period 1993-2010 (mm/yr) 5 Adloff et al., 2016

  4. Correlation between detrended time series and CCI_ECV 1993-2008 Adloff et al., 2016

  5. Trends of sea surface height anomalies over the period 1993-2010 (mm/yr) Adloff et al., 2016

  6. WP3.10 : Cross-assessment of CCI-ECVs over the Mediterranean domain • Some conclusions: • The Mediterraneanmeansealevelisstronglyinfluenced by the Atlantic conditions and thus the quality of the information in the lateral boundary conditions is crucial for the good modelling of Mediterranean sea level. • The regionaldifferencesinside the basin that are induced by circulation changes are model-dependent and are not affected by the LBC. • Correct Atlantic conditions fromglobal circulation modelsshouldbeused to project future Mediterraneansealevelchange. • The errorestimate of regional CCI sealevel trends (3mm/year) seemsoverestimated.

  7. WP3.10 : Cross-assessment of CCI-ECVs over the Mediterranean domain • Future plans: • Complete the analyse of the performances of the models by confronting the mean, the variability and the trends of a subset of variables inferred from the CCI-ECVs and from the simulations (Aerosols, soil moisture, SST) • Analyse the consistency betweendifferentECVsthrough the analysis of a climatespecificevent: possibly the 2006 heatwave.

  8. WP4.1 : Exploiting CCI products in CMIP like experiments • Recent progresses: • Interaction with the science leader of the CCI-Sea ice consortium : an updated product will become available in 2016. • At Météo-France we have performed AMIP-like simulations as part of sensitivity experiments to the L4 CCI-SST product (v1.0). These simulations are performed with Arpege-Climat v6 T127L91 (a version close to the one that will be used for CMIP6) and they consist in 5-member ensemble simulations with either the “recommended” AMIP forcing or a forcing where only SST is substituted with the CCI product (same sea ice). The covered period is1992-2010.

  9. Seal level pressure in DJF averaged over the period 1992-2010 (hPa)

  10. Seal level pressure difference between the ensemble averaged of CCI and AMIP simulations (Pa) January 1992 (5 members per ensemble)

  11. 10% significance level (t-test) in January 1992 CCI-AMIP (5 members)

  12. WP4.1 : Exploiting CCI products in CMIP like experiments • Somepreliminary conclusions: • No systematic impact of the SST differences on the performance of the model for the simulation of the seasonalmeansealevel pressure (comparisonwith ERA-Interimclimatology). • No significant impact on the simulatedsealevel pressure whenconsidering the 5-member ensemble simulations over a specificmonth (t-test).

  13. WP4.1 : Exploiting CCI products in CMIP like experiments • Future plans: • Complete and analyse the sensitivityexperiments to SST-CCI. • Perform new CMIP6 AMIP-like simulations with Arpege-Climat low and high resolution with CCI SST and sea-ice forcings : need for sea ice data. • Analyse model simulations and compare results with those of the simulations performed by CMUG partners (similar simulations planned at LMD and SMHI thisyear).

  14. Seal surface temperature difference between CCI and AMIP in January 1992 (°C) CCI-AMIP (5 members)

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