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Making the NHL Playoffs

Making the NHL Playoffs. Dustin Schneider Lawrence Mulcahy. Objective. To predict the chance of a NHL team making the playoffs based on average game stats. Logistic regression will be used to model and predict which teams have the best chance of making the playoffs.

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Making the NHL Playoffs

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  1. Making the NHL Playoffs Dustin Schneider Lawrence Mulcahy

  2. Objective • To predict the chance of a NHL team making the playoffs based on average game stats. • Logistic regression will be used to model and predict which teams have the best chance of making the playoffs. • The data set used will be limited to the 3 seasons prior to the lockout.

  3. Logistic Regression • Type of statistical model used to work with a response variable that has two outcomes: success or failure. • If we allow the response variable to take on the value of 1 or 0, the mean is the proportion of 1 and P(success) = p. • Logistic regression, however, is based on odds instead of the proportions of the outcomes.

  4. Odds • The population odds are defined as: where p is the proportion of the event. • If we have a proportion of .3333, then the odds are

  5. The form of the logistic regression model is: • The proportion in this model is actually the proportion of failure. • The model can use more than 1 predictor variable.

  6. Concordant Data • Begin by creating all possible pairs of observation with different responses. • Each pair is then classified as a discordant pair or a concordant pair. • The more concordant pairs the better the model.

  7. Predictor variable: pointsln(p/1-p) = 29.6968 – 0.3416(points)

  8. Predictor variable: Goals against per gameln(p/1-p) = -18.0235 + 6.8572(GA/G)

  9. Predictor variable: Goals per gameln(p/1-p) = 18.6687 – 7.2638(G/G)

  10. Predictor variable: Power Play %ln(p/1-p) = 7.1231 - .4530(PP%)

  11. Predictor variables: Penalty kill %ln(p/1-p) = 35.701 – 0.4278(PK%)

  12. Predictor variables: G/G GA/G PP% PK% ln(p/1-p) = 14.5743 – 9.3229(G/G) + 8.3898(GA/G) – 0.4983 PP% - 0.0521 PK%

  13. Predictor variables: G/G GA/G PP%ln(p/1-p) = 9.4912 – 9.3015 G/G + 8.6026 GA/G - .4906 PP%

  14. Predictor variables: G/G GA/Gln(p/1-p) = 5.3741 – 10.1836 G/G + 8.0720 GA/G

  15. Activity Professor Hartlaub wants to place a bet on one of the following teams making the playoffs. Which team should he choose to bet on? New York Rangers(NYR) Columbus Blue Jackets(CBJ) Montreal Canadiens (MTL) http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm?navid=NAV|STS|Teams

  16. Hint

  17. Resources • NHL.com • http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/2685041.pdf

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