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CARICOF PRESENTATION

Utilizing observed data and climate models to predict rainfall and temperature trends in Barbados for the upcoming season. Includes insights on potential drought conditions. Trustworthy forecasts based on historical trends and data accuracy.

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CARICOF PRESENTATION

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  1. CARICOF PRESENTATION By Rosalind Blenman Barbados

  2. Experiment 1 • RAINFALL FOR BARBADOS FOR THE SEASON DEC- FEB, 2014/15 • Model used: Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) • 1.To produce this forecast observed SSTs across the Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans for the month of October were used (1982-2014) • 2. Monthly rainfall data for 2 weather stations in Barbados, CIMH and Grantley Adams.(1982 – 2014)

  3. O ROC RANGE: 0.6 – 0.9

  4. You can trust the model 75% of the time to predict above normal and below normal rainfall for DJF correctly.

  5. CIMH GAIA

  6. For both stations there is a tendency for normal rainfall for the season DJF. (Highest probability values) • The forecasted rainfall amounts at CIMH and GAIA are expected to be 178mm and 197mm respectively.

  7. Experiment 2 • TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR BARBADOS FOR THE SEASON DEC- FEB, 2014/15 • 1.To produce this forecast observed SSTs across the Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Ocean for the month of October were used (1982 – 2014). • 2. Average Dry Bulb Monthly Temperatures for GAIA ( Jan 1982 - Oct )

  8. The model can be trusted 90% of the time to predict above and below normal temperatures for the months DJF.

  9. 77% chance that the temperatures for the season DJF will be above normal. • The average forecasted temperature for that season is 27 degrees celcius.

  10. Experiment 3 • Will there be Drought during the upcoming dry season? • 1.To produce this forecast observed SSTs across the Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans for the month of October were used. • 2. Monthly rainfall data for 2 weather stations in Barbados, CIMH and Grantley Adams.(1982 – 2014) • Focused on the below normal rainfall charts only and tailor the model

  11. There is a 40% chance of a moderate to severe drought occurring in the upcoming dry season (Dec-May).

  12. Thank You !!!!

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