CARICOF 2012 Background, Introduction and RESULTS

1. CARICOF 2012Background, Introduction andRESULTS Adrian Trotman Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology CARICOF 2012, 27 February to 2 March, 2012 Christ Church, Barbados

2. Diverse Temporal and Spatial Scales Droughts • Other climate modes

3. Climate Varies on All TimescalesCaribbean Region: Mar-Apr-May season “Climate Change” 0% RegionalAverageTime Series “Decadal” 27% “Interannual” 70% http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Time_Scales

4. Collaborative framework between research and management: Engaging decision-making- “communication” AND “organizational” perspectives-

5. Caribbean rainfall forecasts – dissemination & uses Rainfall variability = source of largest climate impacts in Caribbean  rainfall patterns – focus of seasonal forecast CARICOF raises awareness through dissemination of forecast via its forums and other products (CAMI, RIR, etc.)

6. Regional and NationalAgrometeorological Bulletins

7. TRADITIONAL FORECASTING PROCEDURE Utilise the outputs from the Global models Now also utilise Climate Prediction Tool (CPT-IRI) Up until 2012, produced every two months, now every month.

8. Caribbean probabilisticrainfall forecasts and monitoring

9. 2009-10 DroughtImpacts on Agriculture and Food • Crops and livestocks - President of Guyana allocated US $1.3 million to bring relief to farmers of Region 2, costing government US $16,000.00 per day to operate pumps and conduct other works in this region. - Farmers became so desperate that they were forced to pump salt water to about 150 acres of rice lands knowing the grave consequences of such actions - Banana exports n Dominica was approximately 43% lower in first 11 weeks of 2010 - In St. Vincent and the Grenadines, agricultural production was reduced to 20% . The resilient farms were the ones that utilised greenhouse facilities and irrigation systems. - In Antigua and Barbuda, where the 2010 onion crop was expected to be about 500,000 kg, 25 percent of it was lost, whilst about 30 percent of the Tomato crop which was estimated to total 250,000kg was lost - in Trinidad disease of cattle • Food Prices - In St. Vincent and the Grenadines, prices of tomatoes were $2.35 per pound in February. In March the prices rose to $6.00 per pound. - Trinidad and Tobago expressed concerns over rising inflation rates with a significant food prices component. Food prices increased 6.9 % in March compared with 6.3 % in February and 2.7 % in January. An increase in the price of fruit in March 2010 by 60.8 per cent - an increase in the price of fruit in March 2010 by 60.8 per cent • Bush Fires - the same scarce commodity – water – has then to be used to reduce the risks to limb and property - In Dominica, attended to 160 fires (mainly bush fires) for the 1st quarter of 2010, which was more than for the entire year 2009, which was about 103 - 150% increase in the amount of bush fires reported - In St. Vincent and the Grenadines, seven different farms reported the destruction of at least two acres of crops. • Land degradation – flooding and landslides after drought, particularly where there was denudation of slopes from fires can be a concern

10. Rainfall Impacts Reporter

11. RIR Example from Trinidad

12. Caribbean probabilisticrainfall forecasts and monitoring

13. Caribbean probabilisticrainfall forecasts and monitoring

14. The Forum involves weather and climate scientists, representatives from the user sectors & the media, for identification of impacts and implications, and the formulation of response & effective communications strategies Creates partnerships CARICOF

15. CIMH Rainfall Outlookprevious (Feb-Mar-Apr 2012) forecasting period

16. In Pursuit of Other Regional Climate Products in the Near Future • Temperature monitoring and forecasting • Both rainfall and temperature to include probability of excedence • Six months forecasts? Lead times extending to six months? • Forecasting sea temperatures?

17. Considerations for Preparing MapMarch-April-May 2012 • Atlantic and/or Pacific SST’s – observed, predicted - CPT • Atlantic and/or Pacific predicted rainfall (from dynamic models trained to actual Caribbean raingauge data - CPT • Quick-dying La Niña • Moving into weak El Niño? • Output from Global Models • Must consider model skills over the region

18. Considerations for Preparing MapMarch-April-May 2012 • Output considerations… • CPT suggesting, with varying degree of skills across the Caribbean, below normal rainfall particularly across eastern Caribbean • Global models – many of them suggesting similar pattern to previous recent months… • …above normal in southeast below normal in northwest with near normal to increasing uncertainty in between • Climate knowledge under considerations suggests… • …maintenance of status quo but with less certainity with the likelihood that with the above-normal forecasted by many global models, the CPT forecast using regional data may well suggest that during the 3 month period we are beginning to to see a shift in that status quo • ALL AVAILABLE INFORMATION BEING USED

19. CARICOF Rainfall OutlookMarch-April-May 2012