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Mainland South Florida Tropical Briefing Mon Sept 27 10 AM

Mainland South Florida Tropical Briefing Mon Sept 27 10 AM. Rob Molleda National Weather Service Miami/South Florida Forecast Office. Area of Disturbed Weather in Caribbean Sea. Remnant of Matthew. Deep Moisture. EXTREMELY HIGH atmospheric moisture content. Model Forecast:

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Mainland South Florida Tropical Briefing Mon Sept 27 10 AM

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  1. Mainland South Florida Tropical BriefingMon Sept 27 10 AM Rob Molleda National Weather Service Miami/South Florida Forecast Office

  2. Area of Disturbed Weather in Caribbean Sea Remnant of Matthew

  3. Deep Moisture EXTREMELY HIGH atmospheric moisture content

  4. Model Forecast: 8 AM Wednesday • Low pressure south of Keys moving northward. • Caribbean moisture surges northward • Purple and red colors indicate high 6-hour rainfall amounts of over 3 inches

  5. Model Forecast: 8 PM Wednesday • Low moves north of area. • Moisture lingers over area, although heaviest rainfall begins to shift north of region.

  6. Rainfall Forecasts • Average of 3-4 inches over much of South Florida. • Isolated areas typically could see as much as twice that amount. 8 AM Tuesday – 8 AM Wednesday

  7. Rainfall Forecasts • Average of 2-3 inches over eastern half of South Florida. 8 AM Wednesday – 8 AM Thursday

  8. Summary • Tropical (or subtropical) system may or may not develop south of Florida. • Regardless of what type of system impacts our area, the main threat is for torrential rainfall and potential for significant flooding.

  9. Rainfall Forecasts • Model forecasts and human-adjusted forecasts suggest 2-day average rainfall amounts of 5-8 inches over parts of South Florida from 8 AM Tue to 8 AM Thu. • This type of weather pattern favors development of heavy rain bands which could produce even higher rainfall values.

  10. Impacts • Flooding: Significant flooding entering structures is possible, especially in historically flood-prone areas. • Timing: Late Tuesday through Wednesday night. • Too early to pin down with high confidence areas most likely to receive worst flooding. • Present indications are that the SE Florida metro areas may be more likely to see greatest flood potential.

  11. Impacts • Flood Watch may be issued early tomorrow. This means that the potential exists for significant flooding affecting property. • Tornado threat may be higher than normal, but right now not our primary concern.

  12. Questions? Thank you for your time! National Weather Service Miami/South Florida Forecast Office

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