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Peter Droogers FutureWater Wageningen Netherlands

Climate Change Adaptation Assessment in the Agriculture Sector An International Perspective Awareness-Raising and Consultation Workshop Tashkent, Uzbekistan 19-May-2010. Peter Droogers FutureWater Wageningen Netherlands. IPCC projections. IPCC projections (annual).

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Peter Droogers FutureWater Wageningen Netherlands

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  1. Climate Change Adaptation Assessment in the Agriculture SectorAn International PerspectiveAwareness-Raising and Consultation WorkshopTashkent, Uzbekistan19-May-2010 Peter Droogers FutureWater Wageningen Netherlands

  2. IPCC projections

  3. IPCC projections (annual) Temperature and precipitation changes from the MMD-A1B simulations. Annual mean temperature change between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099, averaged over 21 models.

  4. IPCC Precipitation (monthly) DJF JJA

  5. IPCC Precipitation (monthly) Number of models, out of 21, that project increases in precipitation.

  6. Probability “The Art of Predicting Climate Variability and Change”, Bart van den Hurk and Daniela Jacob (2009)

  7. Why Quantitative Tools

  8. IPCC recommendations for water resources managers Source: “Managing Water under current climate variability” Eelco van Beek (2009, adapted from IPCC (2001, Table 4–13))

  9. Adaptation vs. Mitigation

  10. Which Quantitative Tool

  11. Quantitative analysis Remote Sensing Observations Analysis Statistics Understand past water resources Past Today Future Trend Understand current water resources ? Options for future Alter Models - technical • socio-economic • policy oriented

  12. Number of Models? ?

  13. Podium STREAM SLURP WSBM SWAT WEAP IQQM SWAP AquaCrop Which model? continent basin Spatial scale system field high low Physical detail

  14. Number of Satellites? ?

  15. Remote Sensing Frequency Landsat / ASTER AVHRR / MODIS Ikonos GOES/ METEOSAT Two weeks 1 Day 11 km 180 km 2500 km 30 min. 1 to 4 m 30 m 250m - 1 km 5 km Pixel size (resolution)

  16. Remotely Sensed Evapotranspiration

  17. Global Studies

  18. Climate change vs. Population change Vörösmarty, C.J., P. Green, J. Salisbury, R.B. Lammers. 2000. Global Water Resources: Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth. Science 289: 284-288.

  19. Climate change vs. Population change Vörösmarty, C.J., P. Green, J. Salisbury, R.B. Lammers. 2000. Global Water Resources: Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth. Science 289: 284-288.

  20. Climate change vs. Population change Vörösmarty, C.J., P. Green, J. Salisbury, R.B. Lammers. 2000. Global Water Resources: Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth. Science 289: 284-288.

  21. Climate change vs. Population change • Population change: gradual • Climate change: extremes Vörösmarty, C.J., P. Green, J. Salisbury, R.B. Lammers. 2000. Global Water Resources: Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth. Science 289: 284-288.

  22. Field Scale Studies

  23. Comparing field scale adaptation in contrasting basins • Impact and Adaptation in 7 contrasting basins • Representative fields • Simulation model SWAP • Various adaptation strategies

  24. Source: Aerts and Droogers, 2003. Climate Change in Contrasting River Basins, Adaptation Strategies for Water, Food and Environment

  25. Source: Aerts and Droogers, 2003. Climate Change in Contrasting River Basins, Adaptation Strategies for Water, Food and Environment

  26. Source: Aerts and Droogers, 2003. Climate Change in Contrasting River Basins, Adaptation Strategies for Water, Food and Environment

  27. Basin-Field Scale Analysis

  28. Relevance • Crop growth and climate change • Changes in rainfall • Changes in temperature • Changes in reference evapotranspiration • Changes in CO2 • Analysis using WEAP • Water availability (including variation) • Analsyis using AquaCrop • Current situation • Impact • Adaptation • no irrigation • less irrigation • 3 crops • …..

  29. Basin-Field scale combined continent basin WEAP AquaCrop Spatial scale system field high low Physical detail

  30. AquaCrop • Main processes

  31. AquaCrop • User-friendly Interface

  32. Typical Output

  33. Summary Results • Impact of Climate Change

  34. Summary Results • More rainfall in 2050: • no irrigation??? • Substantial reduction in yield

  35. Summary Results • More rainfall in 2050: • less irrigation??? • Almost no impact on yield

  36. Summary Results • Three crops in one year? • Increase in yield • Operational farm management should improve

  37. WEAP analysis

  38. WEAP

  39. WEAP

  40. WEAP output Estimate flood depth for a recurrence time of 5 years

  41. Concluding remarks • Adaptation climate changes: • Increase in extremes • Uncertainty • Quantitative tools: • Models • Remote sensing • Scale issues: • Basin: water availability and variability • Field: crop yields • Issues not covered: • Salinity • Economics • ….

  42. Thank You

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