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The Syrian Uprising 2011

The Syrian Uprising 2011. THE ALTERNATIVE. CENTCOM MAC DILL AIR FORCE BASE PIERRE A. MAROUN THE SYRIAN REVOLUTION JUNE 3, 2011. OVERVIEW. Syria. Independence: 1946 Name of Capital City: Damascus Type of State: Republic/unitary Country Area: 185180 (sq km)  

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The Syrian Uprising 2011

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  1. The Syrian Uprising 2011 THE ALTERNATIVE CENTCOM MAC DILL AIR FORCE BASE PIERRE A. MAROUN THE SYRIAN REVOLUTION JUNE 3, 2011

  2. OVERVIEW • Syria • Independence: 1946 • Name of Capital City: Damascus • Type of State: Republic/unitary • Country Area: 185180 (sq km)   • Population: 22,517,750 (July 2010 est.)Languages: Arabic (official), Kurdish, Armenian, Aramaic, Circassian widely understood; French, English somewhat understood • Religions: Sunni Muslim 74%, other Muslim (includes Alawite, Druze) 16%, Christian (various denominations) 10%, Jewish.

  3. ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISIONS • Syria’s 14 provinces: • Al Hasakah, • Al Ladhiqiyah, • Al Qunaytirah, • ArRaqqah, • As Suwayda', • Dar'a, • DayrazZawr, • Dimashq, • Halab, • Hamah, • Hims, • Idlib, • Rif Dimashq, • Tartus

  4. "UNITY, LIBERTY, SOCIALISM" One arab nation One arab state • Secularism • Arab Nationalism • Socialism The Ba’ath Party was founded in Damascus in 1947 by the Syrian intellectuals Michel Aflaq and Salah Bitar

  5. THE BA’ATH Syrian Ba’ath Iraqi Ba’ath 1966 a coup d'état by the military against the leadership of Michel Aflaq & Salah Bitar led the Syrian & Iraqi parties to split into rival organizations

  6. SYRIA’S POLITICAL SYSTEM constitution of 1973 The president • One party system • The Syrian constitution of 1973 vests the Ba'ath Party with leadership functions in the state and society, and provides broad powers to the president. • President directly elected by the people for a 7year term.   • Must Be a Muslim • Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces • Sec. General of the Ba'ath Party • Leader of the National Progressive Front • Appoints ministers • Declares War & States of Emergency • Issues laws • Declares Amnesty • Amends the Constitution • Appoints Civil Servants • Appoints Military Personnel • Appoints Ministers in Cabinet • Approves Economic Plans

  7. SYRIA’S POLITICAL SYSTEM constitution of 1973 The Legislative • 250 body is the People’s Assembly • Directly Elected by the People • 4 year terms • Except in the case of emergency, Ratifies Laws Issued by the President??? • Nat’l Progressive Front • Arab Socialist Baath Party • Arab Socialist Union Party • Arab Socialist Party • Communist Party of Syria • Union Socialist Party • Union Socialist Democratic Party

  8. SYRIA’S POLITICAL SYSTEM Constitution of 1973 The judicial system • JUDICIAL COURT • Courts of General Jurisdiction • Administrative Courts • Three levels of courts: • courts of first instance, • courts of appeals, • the constitutional court, the highest tribunal • The judicial system is a combination of: • Ottoman • French • Islamic laws • Islamic jurisprudence (Sharia’a) is the main source of legislation

  9. 1930-2000 Qardaha, Latakia PRESIDENT HAFEZ ASSAD

  10. PLANNING THE ASSAD’S SYRIA • 1947 Joined Ba’ath Party • 1961-1963 Ministry of Sea Transportation • 1963 Air Force Major • 1963 Coup-Ba’ath In Power • 1964 General Com Of Air Force • 1967 Minister Of Defense -Golan Heights • 1970-2000 Corrective Coup-Ruled Syria • 1973 Constitution • 1977 Camp David-Rejectionist Front

  11. INTERNAL SECURITY & FOREIGN POLICY • Assad’s Internal Security • 1979, Muslim Brotherhood chain of assassinations in the artillery school in Aleppo • 1982, Hama massacre, an estimated 20,000 to 40,000 people were killed, including about 1,000 soldiers • 1983, Rifa’at Assad coup. ..Exiled to France

  12. PRESIDENT ASSAD’S FOREIGN POLICY

  13. ASSAD & LEONID BREZHNEV Kremlin 07.12.1978 USSR Found a Great Ally in Assad to Fight the USA Russian officials worried abut their military ships in Latakia’s port

  14. RULING ASSAD’S SYRIA • Assad’s Foreign Policy • Iraq • Allied with Iran 1980-1988 • Allied with the US/Coalition 1991 • Jihadists to Iraq-free hand in Lebanon • Israel • 1967 Six Day War-Golan Heights • 1977 Reject Camp David • 1982 Hezbollah-HAMAS-PLFP-Islamic Jihad • 1996 QanaMasacre-April Understanding

  15. RULING ASSAD’S SYRIA • Assad’s Foreign Policy-cont I • Palestinians • 1970 Black September-Jordan • Arafat & PLO • Abu Musa Uprising • Tripoli War 1983 • AMAL/PSP vs. Sunni Murabitoun W. Beirut 1985 • Palestinian Camps War 1985-1986

  16. RULING ASSAD’S SYRIA • Assad’s Foreign Policy-cont II • Turkey • Annexation of Hatay 1939 • Anatolia Water Project-Euphrate & Tigris Rivers Dams • Support Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) • 1988 Turkey Threats to Invade Syria • Expelled Abdullah Öcalan 1998 • Better Ties

  17. RULING ASSAD’S SYRIA • Assad’s Foreign Policy-cont III • Lebanon • 1975 war-El_Saiqa-DeirAshash • 1976 Arab Deterrent Forces • 1976 Redline Agreement • 1982 Israeli Invasion-Hezbollah’s Birth • 1983 Multi National Forces Bombing • 1986 Return to W. Beirut • 1990 Taef Accord-Invasion of Christian Enclave • 2005 Withdrawing from Lebanon

  18. PRESIDENT BASHAR ASSAD Bashar was elected President in July 2000…Parliament unanimously amended article 83 dropping the age of president from 40 to 35

  19. SYRIA’S UPRISING • Female Doctor Detained-School Children React • Release Detainees • End Emergency Law • Freedom • Human Rights • Economic Prosperity • Over 1200 dead • Over 10000 detainees • Down w/ the Regime

  20. ASSAD’S CHOICES

  21. GUARDIANS OF THE TEMPLE • Maher Assad: Head of the Presidential Guard-4TH Syrian Army Unit • Assef Shawkat: General-deputy-chief of staff of the Syrian army-Syrian military intelligence • Bashar Assad: President ?

  22. THE “WISE” PLAN SECRET DOCUMENT BY THE REGIME PLANNING THE QUELLING OF THE DEMONSTRATIONS IN Syria • Three Integrated steps: Information, Security, Political & Economics • Benefit from Egypt & Tunisia Mistakes-Deploy the Army • Link Demos-Agents to Lb (March 14), KSA, USA, Zionism • Scare Christians & Druze of Muslim Brotherhood-Salafi Emirate • Prevent Media/Respond to FaceBook

  23. THE “WISE” PLAN The Syrian Government Admits there are Desire by the People to Imitate Other Arab States • Drag everyone to choose between security, stability, & freedom & Safety • Assad Speech: promise jobs, lower cell calls, benefits to clerics, Kurdish Demands-Citizenship • Embassies Abroad Remind US & EU of possible Security Breach in Golan Heights • Ministry of Education to strict Use of Facebook in Schools

  24. THE “WISE” PLAN cont exposing the corruption of some ministers. This needs A security committee TO choose the minister to be sacrificed • Protect The Top Symbol • Monitor Phone Lines • Bring Youth To Branches Of Security Intelligence To Create Dread & Reluctance To Participate In Demos • MP To Strictly Monitor The Armed Forces Of Middle & Senior Leaders • In Case Of Clashes, Use Of Snipers In The Battalion In A Non-exposed Way • Cut Off Electricity , Phones, Internet • Death Toll Shall Not Exceed 20 At A Time

  25. OUTBREAK OF THE REVOLUTION • Important events and Dates • March 16, 2011Syrian security forces arrest 30 of 150 people gathered demanding the release of their relatives and families of detainees • March 18, 2011Security forces kill three protesters in the southern city of Dera’a Syria • March 20, 2011Protesters set fire to the headquarters of the ruling Baath Party in Dera’a

  26. FACING THE STORM • March 24, 2011President Assad ordered formation of a committee to study ways to improve the living conditions of citizens and to examine the possibility of the state of emergency imposed in Syria 48 years ago • March 25, 2011Demonstration has reached the capital Damascus. A total of at least 23 people in different parts of Syria were killed • March 26, 2011President Assad release 260 political prisoners to appease protesters. 12 were killed in Latakia • March 27, 2011Assad freed 16 political prisoners. Sends more troops and tanks to Lattakia

  27. FACING THE STORM • March 29, 2011Syrian government resigns • March 31, 2011Assad creates committee to establish an Anti-Terrorism Act to replace the annulled Emergency Law • April 3, 2011Assad appoints Minister of Agriculture to form a new government • April 9, 201137 dead. Syrian human rights group accuses security forces of committing crimes against humanity. Demonstrations swept all of Syria

  28. “FEW HOOLIGANS”

  29. FACING THE STORM • April 14, 2011President Assad announces the names of new cabinet ministers • April 21, 2011Assad issued a decree to end the state of emergency of 1963. Next day, 100 protestors shot dead • April 25, 2011Syrian troops backed by tanks stormed the city of Dera’a killing more than 20 protesters • April 27, 2011400 killed so far-The failure of efforts by Britain, France, Germany and Portugal to issue a statement condemning the killing

  30. DEATH AND HUMILATION

  31. FACING THE STORM • April 28, 2011App 200 members of the Dera’a Baath Party and 30 members of the Banias branch resigns • April 29,2011 US President Obama signed an executive order imposing sanctions on members of the Assad family. The sanctions order also named the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) for aiding the Syrian crackdown • April 29, 2011UN Human Rights Council issued a resolution condemning the use of violence against demonstrators in Syria and asked to send a mission urgently to investigate "violations of human rights"

  32. “WE ARE ALL HAMZAH EL_KHATEEB”

  33. SYRIAN OUTRAGE TOPPLING THE HIGHEST SYMBOL

  34. FACING THE STORM • May 9, 2011 The European Union imposed a ban on the export of weapons and equipment to Syria • May 10, 2011 In a threatening interview published by the New York Times, Assad sends a warning to Israel and the region through his relative business handler of the family Mr. RamiMakhlouf • May 15, 2011 Syrian Army allowed protestors to cross into the Golan Heights for the first time since the ceasefire of 1974. In a coordinated move with Hezbollah, LA allowed Palestinians to enter the town of MarounEl_Ras. 10 were shot dead

  35. FACES OF SALAFIS???

  36. FACING THE STORM • May 18, 2011 US intensifies political & economic pressure on Syria by imposing sanctions on Assad & six senior Syrian officials in the wake of a bloody crackdown on protests • May 25, 2011 Hezbollah leaders, HasanNasrallah, pledged his support to the Syrian regime. Called the Syrian people to stand by their regime of “resistance.” • May 27, 2011 Protestors burned Hezbollah’s Flags & Nasrallah’s posters

  37. FACING THE STORM • May 27, 2011 Five Italian peacekeepers wounded in an explosion targeting U.N. patrol in S. Lebanon. Came few days after Syria’s FM W. Moalem warned EU • June 1, 2011 Assad release all political detainees App 41 killed by Security Forces in Al-Rastin region • June 2, 2011 U.S. Sec of State Hillary Clinton: Int’l community to be more united on dealing with the Syrian gov crackdown on the pro-democracy movement • Russia Remains opposed to UNSCR  • Clinton: The legitimacy of the Assad regime is “almost” gone  • Assad Creates Committee for National Dialogue

  38. IRAN & HEZBOLLAH Hassan Nasrallah Ali Khamenei

  39. IRAN & HEZBOLLAH’S ROLES • $$$ • International Support • Iranian Revolutionary Guards Experts • Equipments to track FB & Twitter users • Training & Weapons • Iranian Military Ships • Hezbollah Fighters-10 Killed in Ambush • Hezbollah Control via LA-Returning Deserters & Refugees

  40. CLASSIFIED MILITARY DOC

  41. WILL ASSAD SURVIVE?OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER SYRIA’S CRIMES IN LEBANON

  42. INTERNATIONAL JUSTICE • 2004 UNSCR 1559 calls upon Syria to end its occupation of Lebanon and calls for disbanding of all militias • 2005 UNSCR 1636 calls on Syria to detain Syrian suspects identified by an independent probe into the terrorist assassination of former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri • 2005 UNSCR 1644demands full Syrian cooperation in probe into Hariri’s murder • 2006 UNSCR 1680 calls on Syria to demarcate border and establish diplomatic relations with Lebanon • 2006 UNSCR 1701 calls to end war between Israel & Hezbollah & calls on Syria to end its armament of Hezbollah • STL Indictment

  43. THE ALETRNATIVEAntalia, Turkey-Resolutions • Back Revolution Till Victory • Elect Transitional Council to Draft Constitution • Parliamentary and Presidential Elections within a year from Assad’s Resignation • Modern Political System Respecting Diversity • Democracy • Freedom • Economic Prosperity

  44. THE END PEACE CENTCOM MAC DILL AIR FORCE BASE PIERRE A. MAROUN THE SYRIAN REVOLUTION JUNE 3, 2011

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