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Conference: Productivity and ICT

Global overview. Growth slowing rapidly on ICT supply side, still expected to grow in all segments in 2008 despite financial markets and recession, flat in 2009 Turbulence is now linked with OECD country recession, IT investment is highly cyclical (accelerator effect) Growth currently balanced acr

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Conference: Productivity and ICT

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    1. Conference: Productivity and ICT Trends in the ICT sector OECD IT Outlook 2008 Graham Vickery OECD www.oecd.org/sti/ito

    2. Global overview Growth slowing rapidly on ICT supply side, still expected to grow in all segments in 2008 despite financial markets and recession, flat in 2009 Turbulence is now linked with OECD country recession, IT investment is highly cyclical (accelerator effect) Growth currently balanced across OECD countries. ICT supply side growth generally sustainable. Highest in consumer, Internet-related and service support systems Eastern Europe and non-OECD supply and markets have grown much faster and taking larger share Drivers shifting from technology push => commercial applications and user-driven applications pull Building competitiveness is challenge for ICT policy 2

    3. ICT industry developments Aggregate developments => Q2/Q3-2008 US output and markets flattening. Slowing in Japan and Europe. Asian countries still growing rapidly although slowing. ICT markets: OECD share down 2003 85% => 2007 78% Non-OECD countries (Russia, India, China) took 23 of top 25 market growth positions 2000-2007. Top 250 ICT firms (almost 70% of ICT industry) Growth across the board 2002-2007 after early 2000s slump Chinese Taipei growing rapidly China and India growth driven by FDI and services sourcing Sweden 3 firms in Top 250. Ericsson 35th in top 250 list, 4th in Communications equipment sector, 11th in R&D expenditures of ICT firms (in Top 10: Nokia, Cisco Systems and Motorola). Telia Sonera 66 in Top 250, Tele2 AB 151 3

    4. ICT business sector value added 1995 and 2006 % of total business value added

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