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Measuring return migration: Some preliminary findings in times of crisis

Measuring return migration: Some preliminary findings in times of crisis. Jean Christophe Dumont OECD, Head of International Migration Division, Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs UNECE , Work session on Migration Statistics, Geneva, 17-19 October 2012. Outline.

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Measuring return migration: Some preliminary findings in times of crisis

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  1. Measuring return migration: Some preliminary findings in times of crisis Jean Christophe DumontOECD, Head of International Migration Division, Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs UNECE, Work session on Migration Statistics, Geneva, 17-19 October 2012

  2. Outline • Defining and measuring return migration • The magnitude of return migration • Return migration in times of crisis

  3. Defining and Measuring Return Migration (1/7) • What is a returning migrant? • Basic definition (adapted from UNSD 1998): persons returning to their country of origin (A) after having lived abroad (B) • Time dimension in B: • Permanent migration/Temporary migration • Visit: not a migration • Time dimension in A: • Permanent return/Temporary return • Visit: not a return • Country of origin (and return): • Country of birth • Country of citizenship • Other country of usual residence

  4. Defining and Measuring Return Migration (2/7) • What is a returning migrant? • Legal dimension of return: • Choosen • Assisted • Forced • Observed return may be part of a longer or more complex migratory process: • Back and forth • Circular migration (individual level or group level) • Secondary migration (actual destination is not the origin country) • « Return » of second generation

  5. Defining and Measuring Return Migration (3/7) • How to estimate return migration? • Direct measurement of exits/returns using longitudinal datas • Population registers • Continuous monitoring of de jure population (total or foreigners) • Includes or may be linked with demographic information • Registration at arrival, deregistration at departure  statistics on both inflows and outflows • Inconvenients: • Registration / deregistration based on prospective duration of stay / absence: people can leave the country and remain in the register • Usually, does not include illegal residents • Record exits, but often not the precise destination

  6. Defining and Measuring Return Migration (4/7) • Direct measurement of exits/returnsusing longitudinal datas • Border collection • Data collectedat ports, airports, etc. • Entry data usually more completethan exit data • Littledemographic information • Example: International Passenger Survey (UK) • Other administrative sources • Residencepermits • Workpermits • Deportations • Tax or social security data  useful, but partial and count proceduresratherthan people

  7. Defining and Measuring Return Migration (5/7) • Direct measurement of exits/returns using longitudinal datas • Detailed questionnaire, demographic and economic information • May include questions on migration history of household members, on members abroad (but miss full households abroad) • Panel: tracking entries and exits from sample over time • Issues: size and stability of sample longitudinal surveys are useful to understand the causes and consequences of return migration, not that much to count return migrants

  8. Defining and Measuring Return Migration (6/7) • Indirect measurement of returns to country of origin • Censuses of emigration countries: the 5-year question • Country of residence 5 years ago, focus on people born in the country • By definition, information on origin and destination • Ability to compare return migrants with non-migrants • If matched with census in immigration country: ability to add current migrants to the comparison • Inconvenient: not easy to find microdata (but things are improving)

  9. Defining and Measuring Return Migration (7/7) • Indirect measurement of departures from the country of destination • Censuses of immigration countries: the population cell method • Comparing the size of a given population between two successive censuses • Advantages : exhaustivity, good deal of demographic information • Inconvenients: low frequency, time lag, only capture exits (no mention of destination), does not capture complex moves

  10. The Magnitude of Return Migration (1/2) • Indirect measurement of departures from selected European countries, based on LFS • Challenges: • Improvement of the survey over time • Variations in non-reponses rates regarding place of birth/duration of stay • Concentration of responses about length of stay (at 5 years of residence) Stocks of cohorts are volatile must be smoothed to estimate retention rates • Smoothing method: • Construction of an envelope around the original cohort

  11. The Magnitude of Return Migration (2/2) • Indirect measurement of departures from selected European countries, based on LFS Denmark Belgium Ireland United Kingdom

  12. Return Migration in Times of Crisis (1/4) • Determinants of return migration (OECD 2008, Part III) • Failure to integrate into the host country and changes the in economic situation of the home country • The Individuals’ preference for their home country • Achievement of savings objective • Greater employment opportunities in their home country  Prevailing economic/labour market conditions in destination countries • Uncertain impact of economic crisis • Relative size of the shock (origin vs destination countries) • Effect of the crisis on the possibility to remain • Likelihood to be (re)admitted in the future

  13. Return Migration in Times of Crisis (2/4) • Return migration during past economic crisis • Scarse evidence; mixed results: • Germany, oil crisis of the 1970s: most of migrants are reluctant to leave (10/15% of guest workers went back to their home countries) (Dobson, 2009) • Europe, economic crisis of the 1970s: family reunification of temporary migrant workers; lower return rates in the 1980s (OECD 2009, Castles 2009) • United States, economic crisis of the 1930s: negative net migration; significant returns to Mexico (OECD, 2009) • Asian Financial crisis, 1997-99: no repercussions on labour migration outflows in the region (Hugo, 2002) • Issue: identifying the impact of changes in economic conditions on migration outflows while migration policies foster returns/limit entries

  14. Return Migration in Times of Crisis (3/4) • The impact of the recent downturn • Peculiarity of the 2008 economic crisis • Severity/quick diffusion/hits sectors where immigrants are concentrated  High returns? Variations across countries and migrant groups • Propensity to return depends on individual and socioeconomic characteristics of migrants • Job stability, ability to save • determines Bolivians migrants to return from Spain (Bastia, 2011) • Male labour migrants, 18- to 40-year-old migrants low educated • 1/3 reduction in migration flows from the US to Mexico (Rendall et al., 2011) • Outflows differs for EU-12 and non-EU migrants in Europe • Ireland, 2008 : +16.7% in the outflows of non-EU migrants, +57% for EU12 migrants (EHRC and MPI, 2009)

  15. Return Migration in Times of Crisis (4/4) • The impact of the recent downturn • Preliminary estimates of re-emigration rates after 5 years of residence in selected European countries (for cohorts entering between 2000-2005) • Results to take with caution, in line with re-emigration rates for the period 1993-98 (OECD, 2008, Part III) • Little changes in re-emigration rates before/after the crisis • Exceptions: Ireland(19%35%), UK (18%24%)

  16. Conclusion • The methodology presents limitations but enables to get an updated appraisal of re-emigration • Results need to be expanded: • To other non European OECD countries • By migrants groups, notably by country/region of origin

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