Science and Pseudoscience

1. Science and Pseudoscience Steve Dutch Natural and Applied Sciences University of Wisconsin-Green Bay

4. The Spectrum of Scientific Probability

5. Dangers Of The Intellectual Counterculture • Some Theories Dangerous In Themselves • Political Extremism • Racism • Quack Medical Cults • Connections To Extremism • Lend Intellectual Legitimacy • Serve As Safety Valve?

6. Dangers Of The Intellectual Counterculture • Symptom Of Societal Irrationality • Child Abuse - Satanic Cult Hysteria • Recovered Memories • Confusion Over Methodology • Acceptance of Faulty Data and Reasoning • Scientific Illiteracy • Logical Illiteracy

7. The Purpose of the Mind, As of the Mouth, Is to Open It in Order to Close It on Something Solid. -G.K. Chesterton

8. What Is Pseudoscience ? • What Pseudoscience Is • Demonstrably Faulty Observations or Theories • Usually Supported by Logical Fallacies • In Open Defiance of Scientific Consensus • What Pseudoscience Is Not • Errors Made in Good Faith (Polywater, Cold Fusion) • Informed Speculation • Defined by Personal Disagreement • Defined by Personality or Style

9. Logical Structure of Pseudoscience • "Galileo Fallacy" • "Residue Fallacy" • Explanation by Default • Distortion of the Term "Theory" • Attacks on Inference and Deduction • Exaggeration of Uncertainty • Extreme Relativism, Solipsism • Catch-22 Arguments, Buzzwords • Conspiratorial Outlook

10. Is It Fair to Reject All Conspiratorial Theories? • Erroneous Use of Terms • No Secrecy - No Conspiracy • Common Effort or Goal is not a Conspiracy • Criticism is not Persecution • Irrelevant to Issues • Objectives May Be Morally Acceptable • Sometimes Secrecy Is Necessary • Immoral Conspiracies Are Immoral Because of Their Goals and Methods, Not Their Secrecy • Intellectually Dishonest • Impossible to Disprove • Can Rationalize Away Any Anomaly • Appeal to Emotions Instead of Facts • Poisons Climate of Debate

11. A Nation of Jailhouse Lawyers • Freedom of Speech • Criminal Cases • Innocent Until Proven Guilty • Civil Cases • Preponderance of the Evidence • Who Controls the Facts?

12. Two Common Types of Bad Data • "Gee Whiz" Facts • Anecdotal Evidence

13. "Gee Whiz" Facts " • A Million Children Are Reported Missing Every Year" • "Suicide Is the ---th Leading Cause of Death Among Teen-agers"

14. To Be Valid, Anecdotal Evidence • Must Be True • Must Be Representative • Example: the Millionaire Who Pays No Income Tax (Source, 1987 IRS Data) • Income Average Tax % of Income • $19-22,000 $ 1739 8.5 • $40-50,000 $ 5276 11.8 • Over $1,000,000 $703284 29.3 • (Average $2,422,000) • Anecdote May Be True, but Is Not Representative

15. Example: The millionaire who pays no income tax • The reality looks like this (Source, 2000 IRS data; 2003 Statistical Abstract of US Table 491)

16. The Millionaire Who Pays No Income Tax (Source, 1999 Statistical Abstract of the United States) • Income Average Tax % of Income • $50,000-75,000 $ 7300 12 • Over $1,000,000 $875000 31 • (Average $2,800,000) • Anecdote May Be True, but Is Not Representative

17. Urban Legends • Common Elements: • Moral Retribution for Violating Standards • Horror or Yaboo • Can Never Trace to Source • Jan Harold Brunvand, University of Utah

18. Testing • What Does It Take to Prove an Idea Wrong? • What Does It Take to Prove an Idea Right? • What Does It Take to Prove You Wrong? • Can You Find Factual Evidence? • Can You Find Logical Flaws? • Keep Your Eyes on the Prize - Don’t Get Distracted by Emotional Arguments or Irrelevancies

19. What Pseudoscience Reveals About Science • There Is No Such Thing As the Scientific Method • Science Is Based on Content, Not Structure • What Is Science, Then? • A Body of Observations and Theories Capable of Verification or Refutation • Have Survived Testing • Methods That Have Proven Useful for Acquiring, Verifying or Refuting Observations and Theories.