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Outlook for Migration and Remittances 2013-16

Outlook for Migration and Remittances 2013-16. Dilip Ratha World Bank UN HLD New York October 2, 2013. Key messages . Remittances expected to reach $414 bn by 2013 and $540 bn by 2016 Are remittance costs rising?

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Outlook for Migration and Remittances 2013-16

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  1. Outlook for Migration and Remittances 2013-16 DilipRatha World Bank UN HLD New York October 2, 2013

  2. Key messages • Remittances expected to reach $414 bn by 2013 and $540 bn by 2016 • Are remittance costs rising? • Reduce the costs of recruitment, visa, passport and residency permits – a post-2015 development goal?

  3. Remittances to developing countries to reach $414 bn in 2013 Source: Development Prospects Group, World Bank

  4. Top remittance recipients in 2013 as % of GDP, 2012 $ million, 2013e

  5. Remittance flows to developing countries

  6. Remittance growth is picking up in all regions Source: Development Prospect Group, the World Bank

  7. But slower growth in Latin America and the Caribbean Source: Development Prospect Group, the World Bank

  8. Double dip in Mexico *3-month moving averages

  9. Double dip in Mexico…and US housing starts *3-month moving averages

  10. In the US, employment is recovering faster for migrant workers than for natives* *3-month moving averages Source: Current Population Survey

  11. Demand for skilled migrant workers is picking up in the US Number of Days to reach H1-B visa cap

  12. Exchange rate changes encouraged remittances India Source: Internal Financial Statistics, IMF

  13. Remittances are larger than foreign exchange reserves in at least 14 developing countries Remittances as a share of foreign exchange reserves (%) Source: IMF, World Bank staff estimates

  14. Registered Syrian Refugees Source: UNHCR based on available data from Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon

  15. Remittance price is falling, but not as much in low volume corridors where remittance is more important Cost of sending $200 Source: World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide database

  16. Remittance price is falling, but not as much in low volume corridors where remittance is more important Cost of sending $200 (%) Source: World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide database

  17. Remittance costs are still too high Cost of sending $200, %) Source: Remittance Prices Worldwide, World Bank.

  18. Are remittance costs rising? • Lifting fees • Closing of MTO accounts by correspondent banks

  19. Possible migration-specific goals for post-2015 agenda • Reduce cost of making remittances • Reduce the costs of migrating including recruitment, visa, passport cost and residency permits • Mobilize additional sources of financing for development • Protect the rights and safety of migrants

  20. Recruitment costs can be a drain on migrants’ income Sources: ITUC, IMWU and HKCTU, June 2012; APL-HK and PLU, April 2013; Martin 2013, Human Rights Watch 2013, World Bank 2011 (Nepal report). These data should be viewed as preliminary.

  21. Thank you www.knomad.org

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