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The Importance of Alcoholic Beverage Type for Suicide in Japan: A Time-Series Analysis, 1963-2007

The Importance of Alcoholic Beverage Type for Suicide in Japan: A Time-Series Analysis, 1963-2007 Thor Norström, Andrew Stickley , Kenji Shibuya. Alcohol is a risk factor for suicide. Follow -up studies of heavy drinkers Retrospective studies of suicide victims. Why.

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The Importance of Alcoholic Beverage Type for Suicide in Japan: A Time-Series Analysis, 1963-2007

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  1. The Importance of Alcoholic Beverage Type for Suicide in Japan: A Time-Series Analysis, 1963-2007 Thor Norström, Andrew Stickley, Kenji Shibuya

  2. Alcohol is a risk factor for suicide • Follow-up studies of heavydrinkers • Retrospectivestudies of suicide victims

  3. Why • heavy drinking deterioration of social ties • heavy drinking  depression • intoxication  lower self-control  triggering of suicidal impulses

  4. Aggregatelevel • Increased per capita alcoholconsumption more heavy drinking  more suicides • Numerousstudies support the aggregatelink

  5. Contingencies • Strongerlink in northernthan in southern Europe • Spirits and beer more important thanwine: why?

  6. Japan and suicide • Japan has one of the highest suicide rates in the world: • females: 14/100’; males: 40/100’ (2*Sweden) • Individual-level data confirm alcohol as risk factor • BUT: no aggregate link in previous studies

  7. This study • Recallbeveragespecificeffects • Total consumption toocrudemeasure if only spirits matter

  8. Aim • To estimatebeverage-specific effects on suicide in Japan

  9. Data • consumption per capita (15+) of beer, wine, spirits and other alcohol (sales data) • suicide rates for the ages 15-69 for females and males • control variable: unemployment • study period: 1963 to 2007

  10. Method • Time series analysis of differenced data (ARIMA)

  11. Results • 1-litre increase in spirits consumption 20% increase in male suicides • unemployment increaseof 1 %-point  13% increase in male suicides • no effects on femalesuicides

  12. Policy implications • increase the low prices on spirits • reduce the availability of alcohol from 24/7 • discourage the practice of heavy drinking

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