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Central bank policymaking: the statistical challenge and the Irving Fisher Committee

Central bank policymaking: the statistical challenge and the Irving Fisher Committee. Blaise Gadanecz Economist, Monetary and Economic Department. 1. Outline. What is the Irving Fisher Committee? Fostering central bank collaboration on economic measurement projects/initiatives. 2.

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Central bank policymaking: the statistical challenge and the Irving Fisher Committee

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  1. Central bank policymaking:the statistical challengeand the Irving Fisher Committee Blaise Gadanecz Economist, Monetary and Economic Department 1

  2. Outline • What is the Irving Fisher Committee? • Fostering central bank collaboration on economic measurement projects/initiatives 2

  3. The statistical challenge Cooperation in the statistical area at the BIS • Reliability of statistical dataat the national level, in order to reflect structural change in the economy and the financial system • International comparability of statistical data, reflecting increasing integration in the international economy • International Financial Statistics • Joint External Debt Hub • Data Bank Services • Irving Fisher Committee

  4. What is the Irving Fisher Committee? • Forum of central bank economists and statisticians, as well as others who want to participate in discussing statistical issues of interest to central banks. Serves to close a gap between analysts, users and compilers • Established and governed by the international central banking community and operates under the auspices of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) • Associated with the International Statistical Institute (ISI), a venerable institution grouping statisticians from a wide range of disciplines (eg official statistics)

  5. Institutional development over time • 1995: established by CB statisticians at 50th ISI Session in Beijing • 1997: inaugural meeting at 51st ISI Session in Istanbul, Executive Body established, launch of IFC Bulletin • 1999: at 52nd ISI Session in Helsinki, new Executive Body elected, Programme Committee instituted • 2003: becomes provisional independent ISI member • 2005: draft statutes foresee continued operation under the ISI but also becoming a BIS-based group, with Secretariat provided by the BIS (BIS agreed in January 2006) • 2006: new governance structure, all central banks can become institutional members (currently 61, including all BIS shareholders)

  6. IFC activities • Organisation of meetings at biennial ISI Sessions • Organisation of independent conferences (at BIS) • Organisation of other meetings (workshops, regional meetings) • Facilitation of networking amongst members (internal communication, extranet) • Cooperation with BIS and other BIS-based groups • Representation at international events (eg UN, this conference) • Avoid duplication of work in other groups (eg SNA, CPI)

  7. IFC meetings and topics – 1 • 2002: first independent conference, on “Challenges to Central Bank Statistical Activities” • 2003: (54th ISI Session in Berlin): 40 papers presented on topics related to use of statistics in developing monetary policy; the use of hedonic methods for quality-adjusted prices; the sectoral and geographical allocation of the holdership of negotiable instruments; trade in services; the use of surveys in financial statistics • 2004: second conference, on “Central Bank Issues Regarding National and Financial Accounts”

  8. IFC meetings and topics – 2 • April 2005: (55th ISI Session in Sydney): papers presented on financial statistics, in particular about: cost, quality and relevance; accounting standards and their impact; optimal methods for data quality improvements; the use of surveys • June 2005: workshop on “Data Requirements for Analysing the Stability and Vulnerability of Mature Financial Systems” (with Bank of Canada in Ottawa), covered topics such as data on financial institutions, financial markets and financial infrastructures. • April 2006: workshop on “CPI Measures: Central Bank Views and Concerns”; topics included: international methodological standards for CPI, inflation measures from the perspective of monetary policy, quantifying the measurement bias in CPIs, measures of core inflation.

  9. IFC meetings and topics – 3 • August 2006: third IFC conference, on “Measuring the Financial Position of the Household Sector”, covering: measurement issues related to household wealth and debt, distributional aspects of household finances and the use of household surveys to gather information on household finances. • September 2006: Contribution to IAOS Conference on “Financial Aspects of Migration: the Measurement of Remittances”.

  10. IFC meetings and topics – 4 • August 2007: (56th session of the ISI in Lisbon): papers on topics related to financial and national accounts (e.g. oversampling in household surveys, recording of pension liabilities); institutional cooperation in statistics; statistical dissemination; statistical tools in financial risk management; measuring productivity • June and September 2007, March 2008: regional workshops on “The use of surveys by central banks” held in India, Argentina and Austria (in cooperation with respective central banks and regional central banking organisations). Topics included surveys of consumers, business surveys, surveys to develop external statistics, surveys of monetary and financial conditions, international surveys. • March 2008: workshop on “Challenges to improve global comparison of securities statistics” at the IMF in Washington, DC, covering topics such as uses and sources of securities statistics, methodological issues, pros and cons of security-by-security databases.

  11. Future IFC activities • August 2008: fourth IFC Conference, on “Measuring financial innovation and its impact”, will include panel session on data issues revealed by the recent financial market turmoil • August 2009: (57th session of the ISI in Durban, South Africa): papers to be discussed on: implementation of and training on the new SNA and BOP; qualitative data in surveys; the size and impact of statistical revisions; statistics of institutional investors; modern data and metadata systems; measuring access to monetary and financial services; risks in finance and the use of statistical methods (plus separate meeting with central banks of the South African Development Community)

  12. Future IFC activities (2) • Training event on national accounts, financial accounts and balance of payments methodologies (ECB, NBB and IFC Secretariat preparing a proposal)

  13. IFC publications • IFC Bulletin: conference proceedings • IFC Working Papers: original work on topical statistical issues of interest to the international central banking community • IFC website www.bis.org/ifc

  14. In summary… The IFC has contributed to fostering statistical collaboration in areas important to central bank policymaking: • Financial stability analysis (53rd ISI session in Seoul 2001, Ottawa workshop 2005, financial innovation conference 2008) • CPI measurement (workshop 2006, contribution 2008) • National accounts (independent conference 2004, remittances 2006, position of the household sector 2006) • Use of surveys (3 workshops 2007-08)

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