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A lesson on basic demographic statistics: Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

A lesson on basic demographic statistics: Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Life expectancy ...at birth (e 0 ) ...at age x (e x ). Terms (see Haupt, pp. 2-3) “Demography is a science of rates.”. Count: absolute number, specific area, time Rate: relative frequency of an event, for a place and time

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A lesson on basic demographic statistics: Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

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  1. A lesson on basicdemographic statistics: Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Life expectancy ...at birth (e0)...at age x (ex)

  2. Terms (see Haupt, pp. 2-3)“Demography is a science of rates.” • Count: absolute number, specific area, time • Rate: relative frequency of an event, for a place and time • crude: total population • specific: subgroup (by age, sex, race, occup.) • Ratio: relation of one subgroup to another • Proportion: relation of subgroup to entire population

  3. age time Terms (Haupt, 3):cohort vs. period measures • Cohort measure, events of a cohort: birth, marriage, schooling, ...

  4. Terms (Haupt, 3):cohort vs. period measures • Period measure, events occurring to a population during a specific moment of time. age time

  5. 3 types of measures: crude, specific, synthetic • Crude: event/total populationcrude birth, death, marriage, ... • Age-specific rate: event/population age x to n at risk of event:giving birth, dying, migrating • Summary: summation of age-specific rates for a period in time (year, 5 year). Examples:Total fertility rateLife expectancy Cohort or period (synthetic cohort)

  6. Fertility measures: from crude, specific, to synthetic • Crude birth rate: births/total population • Age-specific fertility rate (asfr): births/females 15-19, b/f20-24... b/f45-49 • Summary: total fertility rate (total births/woman over life span): (asfr15-49) • Summary: gross reproduction rate (total daughters/woman): TFR*0.475 (from sex-ratio at birth)

  7. Age-specific fertility rates

  8. Age specific fertility rates: USA, 1988 and 1970 vs. Mexico

  9. Mexico’s fertility in 1971 lagged USA by a century

  10. By 1992, Mexico lagged USA by 2 - 3 decades.

  11. Total fertility rates

  12. Fertility decline in Latin America, 1952 - 1992

  13. Politics, fertility and transition in Mexico, 1895-1995 Revolution Family planning

  14. Mexico’s fertility transition: 7 children in 1970 to 3.2 in 1992

  15. The fertility transition in 15 countries: 1962-1995

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