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Demographic Statistics 2005

Demographic Statistics 2005. Cecilia Macintyre General Register Office for Scotland. Overview of Presentation. The work of GROS Demography Demographic trends in Scotland MYE methodology Small Area Population Estimates Project . Work of Demography team Regular outputs. Mid-year estimates

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Demographic Statistics 2005

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  1. Demographic Statistics 2005 Cecilia Macintyre General Register Office for Scotland

  2. Overview of Presentation • The work of GROS Demography • Demographic trends in Scotland • MYE methodology • Small Area Population Estimates Project

  3. Work of Demography teamRegular outputs • Mid-year estimates • Population projections for sub-national areas • Small area population estimates • Life tables • Marital status estimates

  4. Current developments • Small area population estimates for data zones • Review of population projections systems • Implementation of quality review of international migration review • Wider dissemination of migration data • Contribution to Census alternatives work

  5. Estimated population 5,078,400 at 30 June 2004

  6. Figure 5: Live births, Scotland, 1901 - 2002 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1901 1906 1911 1916 1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

  7. Migration 2002/3 2003/4 • NHSCR migration • In 54,300 61,900 • Out 47,300 46,400 • Overseas migration • In 30,500 36,300 • Out 26,400 24,600

  8. Projected population • Population of Scotland is projected to reduce to 4.88 million by 2028 • Births are projected to decline from 54,000 to 45,000 • Deaths are projected to decline from 58,000 to 54,000 in 2013 and then increase

  9. Dissemination • Routine publications published on web and SCOTSTAT announcement • Annual report + vital events reference tables • Quarterly returns • Online data library

  10. Data sources for migration • Proxy Indicators • NHSCR (NHS Central Register) • CHI (Community Health Index) • Surveys • IPS (International Passenger Survey) • Other Information • Armed Forces • Home Office (Asylum Seekers)

  11. Mid year estimates of population • Resident population regardless of nationality • Students treated at term-time address • Members of HM Forces and non-UK forces stationed in Scotland

  12. Communal establishments • CE populations recorded in Census years • Removed from population projections for purposes of household projections • GROS are looking to create updated sources of CE populations through collaboration with Scottish Executive and others

  13. Small Area population requirements • Settlements Work • SNS (2003) • SNS (2004) • Retrospective Work • Postcode Level SAPEs

  14. Proposed Approach • Produce 2002, 2003 & 2004 CC datazone SAPEs • Undertake a thorough analysis of the CC SAPEs

  15. Proposed Approach (cont.) • Investigate methods for amending the population of problem datazone areas (e.g. student areas) • Review the ratio-change method adopted by ONS • Seek required data sources • Obtain the various datasets required for the ratio-change method

  16. Further information about the Census and population estimates/projections • Contact GROS Customer Services on either (0131) 314 4254 or customer@gro-scotland.gsi.gov.uk.

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