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Warm Season Stats ( April thru September)

Warm Season Stats ( April thru September). 2012 2011 2010 2009 POD .586 .544 .516 .491 FAR .452 .451 .470 .532

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Warm Season Stats ( April thru September)

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  1. Warm Season Stats(April thru September) 201220112010 2009 POD .586 .544 .516 .491 FAR .452 .451 .470 .532 CSI .395 .376 .354 .315

  2. Warm Season Stats(cont’d) 2012201120102009 MAV 40.48 36.22 55.47 45.70 LAV 23.02 21.21 35.80 25.16 (4-year Avg. 44.47) (4-year Avg. 26.30) *****Percent Improvement*****

  3. Warm Season Stats(cont’d) 2012201120102009 TRW POD .304 .224 .139 .326 FAR .781 .781 .869 .817 FG POD .615 .649 .657 .634 FAR .615 .579 .576 .610

  4. COOL SEASON IFR TAF FORECASTING BEST PRACTICES (NOVEMBER thru APRIL) • During the cool season, be more aggressive in forecasting IFR conditions: o IFR conditions are much more common at the TAF sites during the cool season. o If you except more than snow flurries, bring visibility down into IFR category relatively quickly (e.g., 2SM –SN rather than 4-5SM –SN) to help bring up our IFR POD in snow events. o Be aware of sfc-850mb wind directions! Given moist low-level conditions:  MSS NE FLOW, favorable for IFR…  BTV/PBG N FLOW, favorable for IFR…  SLK SW FLOW, favorable for IFR…  BTV S FLOW, less favorable for IFR…  SLK E-SE FLOW, less favorable for IFR… Some other pointers: o GFS LAMP provides the best starting point among the MOS guidance. However, we general improve over all MOS guidance so don’t over rely on it. NAM MOS has the best IFR POD, but the IFR FAR is significantly higher (i.e., NAMMOS significantly overforecasts IFR).

  5. Cold Season Stats(October thru March) 2012-132011-122010-112009-10 POD [.517] .624 .637 .578 FAR [.451] .354 .381 .374 CSI [.363] .465 .458 .430

  6. Cold Season Stats(cont’d) 2012-132011-122010-112009-10 MAV [59.17] 41.36 37.87 24.68 LAV [41.62] 25.87 24.69 10.51 (3-year Avg. 34.64) (3-year Avg. 20.36) *****Percent Improvement*****

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