Meeting the 2020 Objectives and Challenges of Next Generation Access

1. Meeting the 2020 Objectives and Challenges of Next Generation Access Vladimir Poulkov

2. NGA Impact on Society ICT Clusters Collaboration for Growth, Prosperity and Competitiveness in Black Sea Region 10-11 April 2014, Sofia, Bulgaria. • Economic and Social Development.Access to adequate broadband services has crucial importance to the economic and social development. Internet accounts for on average 3.4% of GDP and as much as 6% of GDP in advanced economies. • Jobs. Enterprises with strong web presence are a significant driver of innovation and job creation. • Competitiveness. Advanced NGA services are crucial to achieve the productivity growth necessary to improve competitiveness, create new opportunities for entrepreneurship and jobs. • Attraction of Foreign Investments. The availability of NGA will enable the most advanced uses of cloud computing technology and deliver additional jobs and investment from global corporations. • Healthcare Reform. e-Health technologies such as remote monitoring and remote diagnosis provide a tangible opportunity to shift the balance of healthcare away from the hospitals and into the community. • Transport. Use of NGA for increased e-Working and interactive traffic management will reduce peak traffic flows, impacting positively on energy use, carbon emissions and efficiency generally. • Education and e-Learning. NGA will provide a platform to transform the educational experience by bringing dynamic resources into the classroom and enabling seamless communication between teachers, students and parents. • Citizens, Consumers and Government. NGA will give all citizens access to the same information and opportunity regardless of age, class or location. • Regional Development. Deployment of NGA will help to resolve many of the key issues associated with remote regions thereby enhancing the local productivity capacity of local economies.

3. Digital Agenda for Europe ICT Clusters Collaboration for Growth, Prosperity and Competitiveness in Black Sea Region 10-11 April 2014, Sofia, Bulgaria. “…NGA has the power to transform national economies by improving productivity, innovation, and economic competitiveness…” Targets • 30 Mbps available to all citizens by 2020 • 50% households subscribing to 100 Mbps by 2020 Investmentsrequired • Up to 60 billion EUR >>> 30 Mbps to all citizensby 2020 • Up to 270 billion EUR >>> 50% households subscribing to 100 Mbps by 2020 Important! Only investments are not enough to achieve the DAE objectives! Public intervention and national strategies are needed!

4. Technological Opportunities and ChallengesPotential Technologies to Deliver NGA ICT Clusters Collaboration for Growth, Prosperity and Competitiveness in Black Sea Region 10-11 April 2014, Sofia, Bulgaria. • Fibreto the Cabinet (FTTC) – speeds of 40Mbps to 100Mbps • Fibreto the premises (FTTP) – speeds of 70Mbps to 100Mbps • VDSL – speeds of 25Mbps to 100Mbps • Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification (DOCSIS) 3.0 technology - speeds in excess of 100Mbps • Fixed Wireless – speeds of 1Mbps to 100Mbps • Wireless Mobile / Mobile Broadband – speeds of up to 30Mbps • WiMAX, Long Term Evolution (LTE) - speeds of up to 100Mbps • Satellite – speeds of up to 10 Mbps

5. Techno-economical Opportunities and ChallengesTechnology Selection Considerations ICT Clusters Collaboration for Growth, Prosperity and Competitiveness in Black Sea Region 10-11 April 2014, Sofia, Bulgaria. In making decisions about technology, there are two major critical issues to be considered: The first issue is the population density and building structures. • For instance, high-rises versus single-family homes of the area where planned to build NGA, as well as the customer penetration that is likely to be achieved there. • The industry standard cost for building an NGA infrastructure in a rural area is roughly four times the cost to build in an urban area, and the utilization rate is often lower, when it actually needs to be higher than in urban areas to justify deployment. The result is that it is not financially viable to implement FTTC or FTTP solutions across all areas. New technological alternatives offered by 4G or next generation wireless technologies are expected to overcome some of these financial obstacles. The second is the array of technology choices for NGA, each of which comes with its advantages and disadvantages.

6. Techno-economical Opportunities and Challenges(Example) FTTH Architectures and Reference points ICT Clusters Collaboration for Growth, Prosperity and Competitiveness in Black Sea Region 10-11 April 2014, Sofia, Bulgaria. Source: Breuer D., Geilhardt F., Hülsermann R., Kind M., Lange C., MonathT.,Weis E. OpportunitiesforNext-GenerationOptical Access. IEEE Communications Magazine, pp. 17 -24, February, 2011.

7. Techno-economical Opportunities and Challenges(Example) ICT Clusters Collaboration for Growth, Prosperity and Competitiveness in Black Sea Region 10-11 April 2014, Sofia, Bulgaria. Source: Breuer D., Geilhardt F., Hülsermann R., Kind M., Lange C., MonathT.,Weis E. OpportunitiesforNext-GenerationOptical Access. IEEE Communications Magazine, pp. 17 -24, February, 2011.

8. Investment Opportunities and Challenges ICT Clusters Collaboration for Growth, Prosperity and Competitiveness in Black Sea Region 10-11 April 2014, Sofia, Bulgaria. Meeting the NGA objective cannot be expected to be done only with private investments, as there is: • a considerable uncertainty about consumer interest in and willingness to pay for NGA, thus high initial investments (CAPEX) cannot be undone if demand turns out to be insufficient; • a variability of key issues severely influencing the business case (regulatory choices, retail market share, wholesale revenues, etc.). The rollout of NGA will require private investment combined with European, national and local government support. In this relation: Public money is seen as a very important instrument to incentivize rollout activities – especially in investment unfriendly areas (low-density areas).

9. Investment Opportunities and Challenges ICT Clusters Collaboration for Growth, Prosperity and Competitiveness in Black Sea Region 10-11 April 2014, Sofia, Bulgaria. There are opportunities for the realization of high level investment PPP models that could be applied for NGA networks, all of which are available to the public sector for funding network deployment to meet the Digital Agenda objectives. These models represent a range of options for combining public and private investment, and offer differing levels of involvement, commitment and retained risk by the public sector. Examples are: • private design, build and operate; • public outsourcing; • joint venture; • public design, build and operate. The challenge is to find the most suitable model as each model is applicable in different circumstances, depending on the scope of the required infrastructure, the specific aims of the public sector, and the investment risk and appetite of potential private sector partners.

10. Investment Opportunities and Challenges(Example) ICT Clusters Collaboration for Growth, Prosperity and Competitiveness in Black Sea Region 10-11 April 2014, Sofia, Bulgaria.

11. Regulatory Challenges ICT Clusters Collaboration for Growth, Prosperity and Competitiveness in Black Sea Region 10-11 April 2014, Sofia, Bulgaria. Considering that: • in rural/non-competitive areas the focus is expected to be incentivizing private investments by public funding, PPP models and operator coordination/cooperation; • in areas with no private investments plans PPP models with partial public funding must be stimulated; • in areas with no private interest at all fully publicly owned NGA networks must be build with funding coming from municipalities and government. A supporting regulatory model is vital for the NGA rollout and needs to balance the trade-off between infrastructure competition and investments. It is key to develop the regulatory model in close collaboration with all relevant stakeholders to ensure an optimal model selection & deployment.

12. Challenges to stimulate demand & subscription ICT Clusters Collaboration for Growth, Prosperity and Competitiveness in Black Sea Region 10-11 April 2014, Sofia, Bulgaria. Realization of different initiatives stimulating the use of NGA, such as: • Development of ICT strategies leading to specific initiatives pushing the demand side, e.g. stimulating: • e-Government, • e-Education (e-learning, distant education) • e-Health, • e-Business (e-banking, smart grids, smart buildings, work from home and flexible working time) • other e-Services, • Obliging government agencies, ministries and public institutions to “connect” to fiber; • Involving all agencies in initiatives pushing the demand side; • Supporting private companies when using services requiring NGA (e.g. big data and cloud services) and installing fiber networks with various mechanisms (tax incentives, subsidies, free education etc.); • Supporting households for using/subscribing to novel high speed services; • Others…..

13. Organizational Challenges ICT Clusters Collaboration for Growth, Prosperity and Competitiveness in Black Sea Region 10-11 April 2014, Sofia, Bulgaria. Some of the following issues that should be considered….. • Establishment of a “NGA National Coordination and Management Council” to the Prime Minister of Bulgaria for the development of NGA and realization of the related DAE 2020 objectives. • Establishment of several inter-institutional working groups for considering and proposing solutions on key issues related to NGA technology, investments, regulations aiming at acceleration and stimulation the development and use of NGA. • Preparation and adoption of a program for the implementation of the "National plan for deployment NGA" along with urgent measures, recommendations, national and regional models of public-private partnership, performance stages and forms of governance, management and control. • Institutional development of an “Unified National Information Access Point” for stakeholders in relation to the investment process. • Updating and collecting data for the NGA infrastructure.

14. ICT Clusters Collaboration for Growth, Prosperity and Competitiveness in Black Sea Region 10-11 April 2014, Sofia, Bulgaria.