Property price trends in Victorian non-metropolitan housing markets 1996-2001: exploring the ‘sea change’, ‘tree change’

1. Property price trends in Victorian non-metropolitan housing markets 1996-2001:exploring the ‘sea change’, ‘tree change’ phenomena Margaret Reynolds Maryann Wulff School of Geography and Environmental Science Monash University

2. Are ‘sea change’ and ‘tree change’ distinct housing market types?

3. Counterurbanisation in Victoria Melbourne: net migration gains from/losses to non-metropolitan Victoria, 1966 to 2001 Source: Bell & Hugo 2000, pg. 96; ABS Census of Population & Housing, customised migration matrix, 2001

4. Background • What is ‘new’ about recent migration trends? • Primacy of lifestyle/environmental amenity factors • Specific destinations • Scale/magnitude of growth • Increased polarisation

5. Data and approach • ABS – Community Profiles (census), IRDB • Valuer General property sales (unit record) • State-wide scale • Small Victorian communities (<15,000 pop)

6. 1. Small inland & small coastal communities (SLAs) Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing 2001

7. 2. Property market trends 1991 - 2001 Small coastal Small inland Source: Victorian Office of the Valuer General, individual property sale records 1991, 1996 and 2001

8. Small coastal/inland against larger settlements Growth in number of sales (%) 1996 - 2001 Units and apartments Houses Source: Victorian Office of the Valuer General, individual property sale records 1996 and 2001

9. Small coastal/inland against larger settlements Growth in median sale price (%) 1996 - 2001 Units and apartments Houses Source: Victorian Office of the Valuer General, individual property sale records 1996 and 2001

10. 3. Identify sea change & tree change areas • Identified the small communities in regional Victoria • Examined broad property market trends in regional Victoria • Disaggregate median house sale price change between 1996 and 2001 into three housing market categories: • Declining markets • Moderate rise markets (up to 20% increase in median sale $) • Fast rising markets – greater than 20% increase in median house sale price = sea/tree change areas

11. Victorian sea change/tree change regions Where are they?

12. Small coastal / inland housing market types:Selected Demand Characteristics Source: ABS IRDB 2004; ABS Census of Population and Housing 1996 & 2001

13. Small coastal / inland housing market types:Selected Housing Market Indicators Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing 1991, 1996 & 2001; ABS IRDB 2004

14. Small coastal/inland housing market types:Selected Property Sales Indicators Source: Victorian Office of the Valuer General, individual property sale records 1996 and 2001; ABS Census of Population and Housing 2001

15. Concluding comments • Magnitude of change in sea change differentiates it from tree change (and all other housing market types) • Housing market indicators are important in identifying sea/tree change communities • Increased understanding of the diversity in non-metropolitan housing markets • Implications of research: regional population & development policies; housing affordability and socioeconomic polarisation