“No bourgeois, no democracy” (???)

1. “No bourgeois, no democracy” (???) GOVT S-1113 Meeting 2: Does Democracy Demand Prerequisites?

2. DAHL Two theoretical dimensions of democratization: --Liberalization --Inclusiveness

3. Dahl (cont’d) AXIOMS: #1 The likelihood that a government will tolerate an opposition increases as the expected costs of toleration decrease #2 The likelihood that a government will tolerate an opposition increases as the expected costs of suppression increase #3 The more the costs of suppression exceed the costs of toleration, the greater the chance for a competitive regime

4. DAHL (con’t II) Liberalization before inclusiveness Inclusiveness precedes liberalization Shortcut: both occur together

5. DAHL (cont’d III) Inauguration of politically competitive regimes: In an independent state: evolution or revolution In a previously dependent state: revolution or national struggle

6. DAHL (cont’d IV) So what matters successively? • Type of prior regime and relations w/society • Manner of transition • Subsequent follow-through

7. MOORE Three routes to modernity (all bloody, alas): 1. Bourgeois revolution 2. Reactionary (fascist) 3. Communist

8. Moore (cont’d) Differences in starting points (both structural and temporal) matter! Factors favorable to democracy: 1. Independent nobility 2. Growing urban bourgeoisie

9. MOORE (cont’d II) It’s all about agriculture! Models of changing socio-economic relations: 1. English commercial farming 2. French turnover soil to peasants 3. East German/Russian manorial reaction

10. MOORE (cont’d III) Relations of landed classes with town dwellers: • Antagonistic 2. Exclusionary (elites versus workers/peasants) 3. Fusion in opposition to royal absolutism

11. LIPSET “Necessary” vs. “sufficient” Probabilistic rather than deterministic

12. LIPSET (cont’d) Key Factors: 1. Economic development a. Industrialization b. Urbanization 2. Education IN OTHER WORDS: MODERNIZATION!

13. LIPSET (cont’d II) BUT democratic stability also requires: 1. Effectiveness 2. Legitimacy 3. Cross-cutting cleavages

14. RUSTOW Previous models (he’s writing in 1970) stress: • Structural factors • Ideational factors • Affiliational-societal (broadly defined) BUT THERE IS A PROBLEM WITH THESE! (“functional” versus “genetic” explanation)

15. RUSTOW (cont’d) 1. Democratization may be caused by factors different than those that keep a democracy stable 2. Correlation does not equal causation 3. Causal chains not unidirectional from socio-economic to political factors 4. Not all causal links run from beliefs and attitudes to actions 5. There may be multiple paths to democracy 6. Temporal sequencing may matter a lot 7. Social uniformity not required/elite-mass differences may exist

16. RUSTOW (cont’d II) ONE key background condition STAGES (sequence matters): 1. Preparatory phase 2. Decision phase 3. Habituation phase

17. ALMOND & VERBA • Diffusion on physical goods and mode of production relatively easy • Diffusion of political character is not • Involves changing deep-seated norms and attitudes • Often conflicts with technocratic impulse to “catch up.” WHAT IS “CIVIC CULTURE”?

18. HUNTINGTON A Theory of Waves: • First “long” wave (c. 1820-1926) and reversal • Second post-WWII/decolonization wave (c. 1945-1962) and reversal • Third global wave (1974-???) and reversal

19. HUNTINGTON (cont’d) Catalysts for the Third Wave: • Authoritarian legitimacy problems • Post-WWII global economic growth • Vatican II • Changes in foreign policy of major powers • “Snowballing” (also called “demonstration” or “domino” effects)

20. HUNTINGTON (cont’d II) Obstacles to democratization: 1. Polticial/experiental 2. Cultural/civilizational 3. Economic/performance