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Economic Outlook 2001 Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference May 4, 2001

Economic Outlook 2001 Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference May 4, 2001. Economic Outlook 2001. 2000 Year in Review Business Cycle Expansion Accelerates 2001 Economic Outlook US Economic expansion continues at slower pace Japanese Economy shows signs of weakening

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Economic Outlook 2001 Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference May 4, 2001

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  1. Economic Outlook 2001Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference May 4, 2001

  2. Economic Outlook 2001 • 2000 Year in ReviewBusiness Cycle Expansion Accelerates • 2001 Economic Outlook • US Economic expansion continues at slower pace • Japanese Economy shows signs of weakening • Hawai’i economic engine firing on all cylinders http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  3. 2000 Year in Review • Visitor Industry Turns in a Banner Year • Eastbound Arrivals grow with Japanese Economy • Westbound Arrivals growth not quite as strong as expected • Room rates rise 6.3 %, Real Hotel tax base up more than 10% http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  4. 2000 Year in Review • Construction Sector leads expansion • Home Resales continue strong • Permits growth slows http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  5. 2000 Year in Review • Job Growth Strongest in a Decade • Non Ag Job growth exceeds 3% • Employment growth lower • Unemployment below US average http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  6. 2000 Year in Review • Expanding Economy Grows Real Tax Base • Retail tax base grows with visitor industry and local income. • Hotels have a banner year. • GE tax base expands more slowly than spending plans! http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  7. 2000 Year in Review • Income Growth and Prices • Real income growth strongest in 11 years • Inflation almost doubles • Real income growth slower than job growth? http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  8. Year 2001: Global Outlook • US expansion continues at slower pace • Manufacturing sector in recession • Alan and George both in the mood to contribute • Real consumption expenditures up by 2% 2001Q1 • Japanese Economy- Some things Never Change! • Industrial production and business confidence slow. • Consumer confidence and spending plans decline http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  9. US Income Growth Slows Japan? Were Still Waiting http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  10. 2001 Outlook:All Sectors Contribute to Growth • Visitor growth expected near 2% • Real contracting will expand by 9.7% • Job and Employment growth will continue • Real income to grow at 2.5% • Inflation will accelerate to 2.4% http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  11. Visitor Arrivals Growth Moderates http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  12. Expected Contracting Growth Strongest in 10 years http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  13. Labor Market Firms http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  14. Moderate Real Income Growth Continues http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  15. Honolulu Inflation Still Playing Catch Up http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

  16. 2001 Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO

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