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Migration in Europe

Migration in Europe. OECD NERO Meeting July 6, Paris Ruud A. de Mooij CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Migration in Europe. Immigration from outside EU (2/3) labour market tightness ageing Labour mobility within the EU (1/3) income/unemployment disparities

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Migration in Europe

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  1. Migration in Europe OECD NERO Meeting July 6, Paris Ruud A. de Mooij CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

  2. Migration in Europe • Immigration from outside EU (2/3) • labour market tightness • ageing • Labour mobility within the EU (1/3) • income/unemployment disparities • asymmetric shocks • EU enlargement

  3. Does Europe need more immigrants? • UN report: constant ratio 65+ and age 15-64 • --> NL in 2100: +580% • CPB report: constant fiscal burden • --> NL in 2100: +18%

  4. Economic effects of immigration • Fiscal impact • Revenue • Expenditure • Labour market effects • Wage (-distribution) • Unemployment • Externalities

  5. Critical factors for economic effects:the Dutch experience • Participation rate / follow-up • Dependency ratio • Skill level / average income • Age structure

  6. Participation rate Dutch immigrants(NL = 100)

  7. Follow-up migration

  8. Dependency ratio Dutch immigrants

  9. Net income of migrants (NL = 100)

  10. Brain drain

  11. Age structure of Dutch migrants

  12. Conclusions on external migration • Prime motivation is ageing • Economic impact depends on: • Participation (-) • Dependency ratio (-) • Skill (-) • Age (+)

  13. Labour mobility in the EU • Labour mobility and regional disparities • Responsiveness to wage and unemployment differentials • Why is labour mobility low? • Preferences • Policy distortions

  14. Gross migration rates

  15. Regional unemployment dispersion

  16. Regional wage dispersion

  17. Migration responses in the EU

  18. Effect of u on migration rate

  19. Effect of w on migration rate

  20. Why is mobility low? • Population vs labour migration • Language • Culture • Female participation • Institutions

  21. Institutional barriers to mobility • Housing market (Oswald) • Social insurance (pensions) • Diplomas • Informational barriers • Regional aid

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