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NexGen NPOESS Wind Observing Sounder: NASA/GSFC IDL Study and Findings

NexGen. NexGen NPOESS Wind Observing Sounder: NASA/GSFC IDL Study and Findings. Prepared for Mr. Dan Stockton, Program Executive Officer Program Executive Office for Environmental Satellites Presented by Dr. Wayman Baker NOAA/NASA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation and

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NexGen NPOESS Wind Observing Sounder: NASA/GSFC IDL Study and Findings

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  1. NexGen NexGenNPOESS Wind Observing Sounder: NASA/GSFC IDL Study and Findings Prepared for Mr. Dan Stockton, Program Executive Officer Program Executive Office for Environmental Satellites Presented by Dr. Wayman Baker NOAA/NASA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation and Mr. Bruce Gentry NASA/GSFC/Laboratory for Atmospheres Working Group for Space Based Wind Lidar Wintergreen, VA

  2. NexGen Overview • Background • Why Measure Global Winds from Space? • Wind Lidar Societal Benefits • NOAA Programs Requiring Atmospheric Winds • Space-based Wind Lidar Roadmap • GWOS/NWOS Comparisons with ADM Aeolus • Instrument Development Laboratory (IDL) Study for a NexGen NPOESS Wind Observing Sounder (NWOS) • Concluding Remarks • Next Steps/Recommendations

  3. NexGen Background • ESA planning to launch first DWL in 2009: Atmospheric Dynamics Mission (ADM) - Only has a single perspective view of the target sample volume - Only measures line-of-sight (LOS) winds • A joint NASA/NOAA/DoD global wind mission offers the best opportunity for the U.S. to demonstrate a wind lidar in space in the coming decade - Measures profiles of the horizontal vector wind for the first time • NASA and NOAA briefings given to: • USAF (March 20, 2007); letter sent from AF Director of Weather on August 1, 2007 to NASA HQ stating: - Of the 15 missions recommended by the NRC, global tropospheric wind measurements was most important for the USAF mission - Willingness to endorse Space Experiments Review Board support via the DoD Space Test Program - USAF Space Command (May 8, 2007) - Army (May 10, 2007) - NOAA Observing Systems Council (NOSC – June 8, 2007; June 18, 2008) - Navy (June 11, 2007); supporting letter sent on August 8, 2007 - Joint Planning and Development Office and FAA (June 18, 2007) - FAA (May 16, 2008) - NOAA Research Council (May 19, 2008)

  4. NexGen Background (Cont.) • The National Research Council (NRC) Decadal Survey report recommended a global wind mission The NRC Weather Panel determined that a hybrid Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL) in low Earth orbit could make a transformational impact on global tropospheric wind analyses. • “Wind profiles at all levels” is listed as the #1 priority in the strategic plan for United States Integrated Earth Observing System (USIEOS). • Cost benefit studies have identified economic benefits >$800M/year with the measurement of global wind profiles from space1,2 1 Cordes, J. (1995), “ Economic Benefits and Costs of Developing and Deploying a Space-Based Wind Lidar, Dept of Economics, George Washington University, D-9502. 2 Miller, K. (2007), “Societal Benefits of Winds Mission,” Lidar Working Group, http://space.hsv.usra.edu/LWG/Index.html

  5. NexGen Why Measure Global Windsfrom Space ? • The Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) community unanimously identifies global wind profiles as the most important missing observations. • Independent modeling studies at NCEP, ESRL, AOML, NASA and ECMWF have consistently shown tropospheric wind profiles to be the single most beneficial measurement now absent from the Global Observing System.

  6. NexGen CivilianMilitary Hurricane Track Forecast Ground, Air & Sea Operations Flight Planning Satellite Launches Air Quality Forecast Weapons Delivery Homeland Security Dispersion Forecasts for Energy Demands & Nuclear, Biological, Risk Assessment & Chemical Release Agriculture Aerial Refueling Transportation Recreation Why Wind Lidar?Societal Benefits at a Glance… ImprovedOperational Weather Forecasts • Estimated potential benefits greater than $800M per year* • Including military aviation fuel savings greater than $100 M/year** *K. Miller, “Societal Benefits of Winds Mission,” Lidar Working Group Meeting, February 8, 2007, Miami FL, http://space.hsv.usra.edu/LWG/Index.html ** AF aviation fuel usage estimate provided by Col. M. Babcock

  7. NexGen NOAA ProgramsRequiring Atmospheric Winds* * Data provided by TPIO / CORL Team

  8. NexGen NexGen NWOS (2026) GWOS (2016) Operational 3-D global wind measurements ADM Aeolus (2010) Demo 3-D global wind measurements GWOS TODWL (2002 - 2008) Single LOS global wind measurements DWL Airborne Campaigns, ADM Simulations, etc. NWOS TODWL: Twin Otter Doppler Wind Lidar [CIRPAS NPS/NPOESS IPO] ESA ADM: European Space Agency-Advanced Dynamics Mission (Aeolus) [ESA] GWOS: Global Winds Observing System [NASA/NOAA/DoD] NexGen: NPOESS [2nd] Generation System [PEO/NPOESS] NexGen Hybrid Doppler Wind Lidar - NWOSNPOESS Wind Observing System For Vertical Wind Profiles 2007 NAS Decadal SurveyRecommendations for Tropospheric Winds • 3D Tropospheric Winds mission called “transformational” • and ranked #1 by Weather panel. • 3D Winds also prioritized by Water Cycle panel. • “The Panel strongly recommends an aggressive program • early on to address the high-risk components of the • instrument package, and then design, build, aircraft-test, • and ultimately conduct space-based flights of a prototype • Hybrid Doppler Wind Lidar (HDWL).” • “The Panel recommends a phased development of the • HDWL mission with the following approach: • Stage 1:Design, develop and demonstrate a prototype HDWL system capable of global wind measurements to meet demonstration requirements that are somewhat reduced from operational threshold requirements. All of the critical laser, receiver, detector, and control technologies will be tested in the demonstration HDWL mission. Space demonstration of a prototype HDWL in LEO to take place as early as 2016. • Stage II:Launch of a HDWL system that would meet fully-operational threshold tropospheric wind measurement requirements. It is expected that a fully operational HDWL system could be launched as early as 2022.”

  9. GWOS/NWOS Comparisons with ADM NexGen

  10. NexGen Instrument Design Laboratory [IDL] Studyfor a NexGen NPOESS Wind Observing Sounder (NWOS):An Operational follow-on to the Global Wind Observing Sounder (GWOS)Advanced Mission ConceptSponsored byMr. Dan Stockton, Program Executive OfficerProgram Executive Office for Environmental Satellites

  11. Integrated Design Laboratory—Capabilities and Services Capabilities: • Instrument families ranging from telescopes, cameras, geo–chemistry, lidars, spectrometers, coronographs, etc. • Instrument spectrum support from microwave through gamma ray • LEO, GEO, libration, retrograde, drift away, lunar, deep space, balloon, sounding rockets and UAV instrument design environments • Non-distributed and/or distributed instrument systems • Services: • End-to-end instrument architecture concept development • Existing instrument/concept architecture evaluations • Trade studies and evaluation • Technology, risk, and independent technical assessments • Requirement refinement and verification • Mass/power budget allocation • Cost estimation NASA Goddard Space Flight Center—Integrated Design Center

  12. Star Tracker GPS Nadir Telescope Modules (4) GWOS IDL Instrument Hybrid DWL Technology Solution • The coherent subsystem provides very accurate (<1.5m/s) observations when sufficient aerosols (and clouds) exist. • The direct detection (molecular) subsystem provides observations meeting the threshold requirements above 2km, clouds permitting. • When both sample the same volume, the most accurate observation is chosen for assimilation. • The combination of direct and coherent detection yields higher data utility than either system alone. GWOS Payload Data GWOS in Delta 2320-10 Fairing Dimensions (mm) • Orbit: 400 km, circ, sun-sync, 6am – 6pm • Selectively Redundant Design • +/- 16 arcsec pointing knowledge (post-processed) • X-band data downlink (150 Mbps); S-band TT&C • Total Daily Data Volume 517 Gbits

  13. NexGen Hybrid DWLTechnology MaturityRoadmap Past Funding Laser Risk Reduction Program IIP-2004 Projects ROSES-2007 Projects 2-Micron Coherent Doppler Lidar High Energy Technology 1997 Diode Pump Technology 1993 Inj. Seeding Technology 1996 Conductive Cooling Techn. 1999 Compact Packaging 2005 Packaged Lidar Ground Demo. 2007 2 micron laser 1988 TRL 6 to TRL 7 TRL 5 TRL 7 to TRL 9 2008 - 2012 2011 - 2013 2026 Autonomous Oper. Technol. Coh. Space Qualified Lifetime Validation Pre-Launch Validation Operational NexGen NPOESS 2014 - 2016 GWOS Autonomous Aircraft Oper WB-57 Aircraft Operation DC-8 Autonomous Oper. Technol. 2008 (Direct) Space Qualif. Pre-Launch Validation Lifetime Validation Compact Laser Packaging 2007 Compact Molecular Doppler Receiver 2007 Conductive Cooling Techn. High Energy Laser Technology Diode Pump Technology Inj. Seeding Technology 1 micron laser 0.355-Micron Direct Doppler Lidar

  14. NexGen NWOS IDL Study User Team

  15. NexGen NWOS IDL Study Summary Study Objectives • Study the feasibility of modifying the original IDL design for GWOS at 400 km altitude to work at an 824km altitude on an NPOESS platform • Consider 3 instrument configurations in a trade space that trades telescope aperture, laser duty cycle, pulse power/repetition rate • Examine impact of new technologies, estimate improvements in laser performance, identify technology tall poles. • Minimize power, volume, and mass, as much as possible (in that order) • Consider redundancy for a multi-year lifetime Key Study Assumptions • 824 km, sun-synchronous, dawn-dusk, 1730 ascending node local time, 98.7 deg. Inclination orbit. • 5 yr life, 85% reliability goal • 2/1 backup lasers direct/coherent • 1/0 backup laser electronics direct/coherent • 1 backup receiver for each (direct & coherent) • Both coherent and direct lidars either 100% duty cycle (Configurations 1 & 3) or 50% duty cycle (Configuration 2) • Used 10-year beyond 2008 projections for laser efficiencies: x 2 (direct), x 2.25 (coherent) • Either 4 fixed telescopes (Configurations 1 & 2) or 1 holographic element (Configuration 3) Key Findings • The NWOS IDL designs which follow have shown that the Hybrid Doppler Wind Lidar can be operated at a reasonable electrical power and with reasonable reliability for the 5-year mission on board the NPOESS second generation satellite, NexGen. • There are no tall poles in any of the technical developments needed in the future to develop an NWOS. • Because the proof-of-concept GWOS flight is in advance of the NWOS, there should be good opportunity to verify the assumed requirements.

  16. NWOS Wind Measurement Concept Lidar Backscatter From Aerosols & Molecules • DOPPLER RECEIVER: • Multiple Choices • drive science/technology trades • Coherent ‘heterodyne’ • (e.g. SPARCLE-NASA/LaRC) • Direct detection “Double Edge” • (e.g. Zephyr-NASA/GSFC) • Direct detection • “Fringe Imaging” • (e.g. Michigan Aerospace) Backscattered Spectrum Molecular (l-4) Frequency Preliminary Instrument Design ResultsNexGen Hybrid Doppler Wind Lidar - NWOSNPOESS Wind Observing System For Vertical Wind Profiles I n t e g r a t e d D e s i g n C a p a b i l i t y / I n s t r u m e n t D e s i g n L a b o r a t o r y • Design Study Objectives • Study the feasibility of modifying the original ISAL design for GWOS • at 400 km to work at an 824km altitude on an NPOESS platform • Consider 3 instrument configurations in a trade space that tweaks • telescope aperture, direct laser duty cycle, and direct laser • pulse power/rep rate • Create multiple mechanical, thermal, and optical models • Each discipline engineer consider the impacts of all 3 configurations • to their subsystems • Minimize power, volume, and mass, • as much as possible (in that order) • Consider redundancy for a 5 year lifetime • Requirements • Spacecraft accommodations for NWOS: • (IDL Study Starting Assumptions) • Mass - 650 kg • Power - 1000 W • Dimensions in cm (X, Y, Z) - (170, 170, 170) • Data Rates - 10 Mbps • On-orbit life - 5 years • NWOS Location – Nadir deck • Orbital Altitude: 824km • Ascending Node: 1730 local • (Sun-synchronous dawn-dusk orbit) • Orbital inclination: ~98.7o • Orbital period: ~101minutes, 14 orbits/day • These requirements held for all configurations under consideration. NPOESS NexGen DOP Aerosol (l-2)

  17. Launch Concept for the Atlas 5 - 4 m Diameter FairingNPOESS 1730 LAN Spacecraft 4.5 m 5.7 m Configuration 3 (ShADOE) Configuration 1 and 2 (Inverted GWOS) 3.75 m dia. NWOS HDWL Instrument Configurations = Space Considered for NWOS Preliminary Instrument Design ResultsNexGen Hybrid Doppler Wind Lidar - NWOSNPOESS Wind Observing System For Vertical Wind Profiles I n t e g r a t e d D e s i g n C a p a b i l i t y / I n s t r u m e n t D e s i g n L a b o r a t o r y NPOESS LAN 1730 S/C Sensor Configuration NWOS HDWL Instrument Trade Summary No contingency added (+30%)

  18. NWOS HDWL Instrument Configurations Configuration 3 (ShADOE) Configuration 1 and 2 (Inverted GWOS) Preliminary Instrument Design ResultsNexGen Hybrid Doppler Wind Lidar - NWOSNPOESS Wind Observing System For Vertical Wind Profiles I n t e g r a t e d D e s i g n C a p a b i l i t y / I n s t r u m e n t D e s i g n L a b o r a t o r y Launch Concept for the Atlas 5 - 4 m Diameter FairingNPOESS 1730 LAN Spacecraft 4.5 m 5.7 m 3.75 m dia. NWOS HDWL Instrument Trade Summary NWOS HDWL Instrument Parameters No contingency added (+30%)

  19. NexGen NWOS IDL Study Conclusions • The NWOS IDL design study has shown that the Hybrid Doppler Wind Lidar can be operated at a reasonable electrical power and with reasonable reliability for the 5-year mission on board the NPOESS second generation satellite. • There are no tall poles that depend on unforeseen technical developments in the future. • Because the proof-of-concept GWOS flight is in advance of the NWOS, there should be good opportunity to verify the assumed requirements. Return

  20. NexGen Next Steps/Recommendations • NPOESS evaluation of ADM data • Participate on ESA’s ADM Aeolus Team [Launch 2009] to help establish good data/products and to enable Aeolus data gathering/usage for NWOS studies • Perform study investigating the utility / impact of NWOS data for NexGen using Aeolus data as proxy data and the NWOS projected capabilities from the previous ADM potential impact studies • NWOS concept development • Estimate NWOS Instrument Cost - use NWOS detailed Parts List developed from IDL NWOS Study • Perform mission conceptual design study - NWOS Study User Team & GSFC MDL (Mission Design Laboratory) 20

  21. NexGen Supporting Material

  22. NexGen Observations Needed as a Function of Forecast Length Return

  23. NexGen Which Upper Air ObservationsDo We Need ? • Numerical weather prediction requires independent observations of the mass (temperature) and wind fields • The global three-dimensional mass field is well observed from space • No existing space-based observing system provides vertically resolved wind information => horizontal coverage of wind profiles is sparse

  24. NexGen Current Mass & Wind Data Coverage Upper Air Mass Observations Upper Air Wind Observations

  25. NexGen Forecast ImpactUsing Actual Aircraft Lidar Windsin ECMWF Global Model(Weissmann and Cardinali, 2007) • DWL measurements reduced the 72-hour forecast error by ~3.5% • This amount is ~10% of that realized at the oper. NWP centers worldwide in the past 10 years from all the improvements in modelling, observing systems, and computing power • Total information content of the lidar winds was 3 times higher than for dropsondes Green denotes positive impact Mean (29 cases) 96 h 500 hPa height forecast error difference (Lidar Exper minus Control Exper) for 15 - 28 November 2003 with actual airborne DWL data. The green shading means a reduction in the error with the Lidar data compared to the Control. The forecast impact test was performed with the ECMWF global model.

  26. Airborne Doppler Wind LidarsIn T-PARC/TCS-08 Experimentin Western North Pacific Ocean (2008) to investigate tropical cyclone formation, intensification, structure change and satellite validation ONR-funded P3DWL (1.6 um coherent) PI is Emmitt (SWA) Will co-fly with NCAR’s ELDORA and dropsondes Wind profiles with 50 m vertical and 1 km horizontal resolution Multi-national funded 2 um DWL on DLR Falcon PI is Weissmann (DLR) Will fly with dropsondes NexGen u,v,w,TAS, T,P,q Dropsondes u, v ,P, T, q u,v Lidar horizontal wind speed W' Data will be used to investigate impact of improved wind data on numerical forecasts T-PARC: THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign TCS-08: Tropical Cyclone Study 2008

  27. NexGen Simulated Impact of Space-based Wind Lidar Observations on a Hurricane Track Forecast (R. Atlas et al.) • Hurricanes Tracks • Green: Actual track • Red: Forecast beginning 63 h before landfall with current data • Blue: Improved forecast for same time period with simulated DWL data • Note: A significant positive impact was obtained for both land falling hurricanes in the 1999 data; the average impact for 43 oceanic tropical cyclone verifications was also significantly positive

  28. NexGen 4 Lidar Winds Will Improve Hurricane Forecasts • Reduce preventable property damage ~ $212 M/year 2,3 • Reduce over-warnings ~ $74 M/year 2,3 • 17% less landfall warning error for average of 2 storms/year 1 • Typically warn ~ 350 miles of coast, over-warn 220 miles • Estimate 17% reduction in over-warning with lidar winds, 37 miles • @ $1M / mile precautionary costs saves $37M/storm, $74M/year 1 Storm climatology and simulations for global 3D winds in NWP 2 Cordes, J. J., “Economic Benefits and Costs of Developing and Deploying A Space-Based Wind Lidar,” GWU, NOAA Contract 43AANW400233, March 1995 3 K. Miller, “Societal Benefits of Lidar Winds”, Lidar Working Group,” February 8, 2007 4 www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billionz.html

  29. NexGen Summary of Benefits Estimates ($M/year)*a * K. Miller, “Societal Benefits of Winds Mission,” Lidar Working Group Meeting, February 8, 2007, Miami FL, http://space.hsv.usra.edu/LWG/Index.html

  30. NWOS Study Objective • Study the feasibility of modifying the original ISAL design for GWOS at 400km to work at an 824km altitude on an NPOESS platform • Consider 3 instrument configurations in a trade space that tweaks telescope aperture, direct laser duty cycle, and direct laser pulse power/rep rate • Create multiple mechanical, thermal, and optical models • Each discipline engineer consider the impacts of all 3 configurations to their subsystems • Minimize power, volume, and mass, as much as possible (in that order) • Consider redundancy for a 5 year lifetime Return

  31. Backscattered Spectrum DOP Aerosol (l-2) Molecular (l-4) Frequency Doppler Lidar Measurement Concept • DOPPLER RECEIVER - Multiple flavors - Choice drives science/technology trades • Coherent ‘heterodyne’ (e.g. SPARCLE/LaRC) • Direct detection “Double Edge” (e.g. Zephyr/GSFC) • Direct detection “Fringe Imaging” (e.g. Michigan Aerospace) Return

  32. Second shot: t+200 ms, 5 ms 1489 m, 207 microrad 37 m, 5.3 microrad First Aft Shot t + 190 s Return light: t+6.6 ms, 62 m, 8.7 microrad 7.4 km/s 90° fore/aft angle in horiz. plane 45° FORE AFT 1253 km 824 km 8 m (86%) 180 ns (27 m) FWHM (76%) 45° 2 lines LOS wind profiles 1 line “horiz” wind profiles 53° 889 km 60/2400 shots = 12 s = 78 km 626 km 1/5 s = 1319 m 1/200 s = 33 m 626 km NWOS Hybrid Doppler Wind Lidar Measurement Geometry: 824 km 45 deg azimuth Doppler shift from S/C velocity ±3.6 GHz ±21 GHz Max nadir angle to strike earth 62.3 deg Return

  33. NWOS Requirements–Spacecraft and Orbit • Spacecraft accommodations for NWOS: (starting assumptions) • Mass - 650 kg • Power - 1000 W • Dimensions in cm (X, Y, Z) - (170, 170, 170) cm • Data Rates - 10 Mbps • On-orbit life - 5 years • NWOS Location – Nadir deck • Reliability Goal – 85% • Orbital Altitude: 824km • Ascending Node: 1730 local (Sun-synchronous dawn-dusk orbit) • Orbital inclination: ~98.7o • Orbital period: ~101minutes, 14 orbits/day These requirements hold for all configurations under consideration. Courtesy D. Evans From GWOS Systems Return

  34. NWOS System Configurations(Courtesy M.Clark and D.Palace) Configuration 3 (ShADOE) Configuration 1 and 2 (Inverted GWOS) Return

  35. = Space Considered for NWOS NPOESS LAN 1730 S/C Sensor Configuration Return

  36. 4.5 m 3.75 m dia. 5.7 m Launch Concept for the Atlas 5 - 4 m Diameter Fairing NPOESS 1730 LAN Spacecraft Return

  37. NWOS System Description (1 of 2) * No contingency added (+30%) Return

  38. NWOS System Description (2 of 2) Return

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