RECAPITALIZING THE NATION’S WEATHER PREDICTION CAPABILITY

1. RECAPITALIZING THE NATION’S WEATHER PREDICTION CAPABILITY National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)

2. Vision • Air Force, Navy, NOAA partnership • A managed National multi-model ensemble prediction system. • A common modeling framework linking operations and research. • Draw on individual partner modeling strengths.

3. Growing National Need • National Security and Defense • Natural Disaster Preparedness • Energy and Transportation • Food Security • Quantify climate change risks U.S. must lead the way forward

4. Approach • AF, Navy, and NOAA partnership to address common operational global NWP needs/requirements • Managed multi-model ensemble system • Accelerate transition of new technology to operations • Common modeling architecture for interoperability • National Research and Development Agenda

5. Challenges • Creating a common modeling infrastructure • Fostering a collaborative research environment • Improving R2O and O2R • Resources: computing, investment

6. Benefits Improved capabilities to support agency missions measured by: • Effective disaster prediction, preparation, response and mitigation • More effective global military operations • Less weather delay and disruption for air transportation • Energy saved • Improved efficiencies throughout the Nation’s economy • National response to changing climate • Lives saved • Dollars saved

7. Where We Are • Well Established Tri-Agency Partnership • Initial Operational Capability of National Unified Ensemble in January 2011 • Implementing software architecture standards to provide integration framework for future prediction systems • National R&D agenda for advancing global NWP presented to American Meteorological Society Meeting – January 2011

8. Future Next Generation Prediction Capability New modeling techniques to improve predictive skill Exploit interoperability architecture for a fully coupled system: land, ocean, ice, wave, atmosphere, space, ecosystem Exploit emerging computing capabilities Improved inter-annual to decadal predictions Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC)

9. Backup Material

10. The NUOPC Partnership National Unified Ensemble with managed diversity Significant acceleration in performance Maintain capability of each agency to meet unique requirements through downstream applications Share operational computing costs Interoperable model architecture to facilitate shared development Prioritization of common operational needs Aligned transition process Project manager responsible to Tri-Agency Executive Steering Group (ESG)

11. Where we are today - • Completed NUOPC Phase I • Adoption of Earth System Modeling Framework as basis for Common Model Architecture • Infrastructure standards • Research Transition • Unified Ensemble Evaluated • Phase II • Implementing NUOPC interoperability layer as Common Model Architecture • Developing National R&D Agenda • Developing Common Metrics • Implementing National Unified Ensemble System

12. NUOPC Implementation Schedule FY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Prelim Phase I Implementation Phase II Beta Test Phase III IOC-1 IOC-2 FOC ADOPT INTEROPERABILITY STANDARDS INIT.STANDARDS INTEROPERABILITY DEVELOP FUTURE MODEL ARCHITECTURE EXCHANGE NAEFS DATA AND BIASED FIELDS, ARCHIVE, TRAINING ENSEMBLE OPS, METRICS, TOOLBOX, FOC CONOPS, BUDGET OPERATIONS COMM, IA, HPC VISITING SCIENTIST PROGRAM CONOPS, IMPLEMENTATION PLAN, BUDGET TRANSITION RESEARCH TRANSITION FACILITY (RTF) OUTREACH RESEARCH AGENDA AMS CONFERENCES FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY