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Water Security Challenges of Pakistan

Water Security Challenges of Pakistan. Naseer Ahmad Gillani FIE. Climate Change and Flash Floods. Water is biggest security issue. LAND USE IN PAKISTAN. CATEGORY. AREA (MA). GEOGRAPHICAL AREA. 196.7. AREA SUITABLE FOR AGRICULTURE. 74.6. CULTIVATED AREA (IRRIGATED + BARANI).

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Water Security Challenges of Pakistan

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  1. Water Security Challenges of Pakistan Naseer Ahmad Gillani FIE

  2. Climate Change and Flash Floods

  3. Water is biggest security issue

  4. LAND USE IN PAKISTAN CATEGORY AREA (MA) GEOGRAPHICAL AREA 196.7 AREA SUITABLE FOR AGRICULTURE 74.6 CULTIVATED AREA (IRRIGATED + BARANI) 54.5 AREA UNDER IRRIGATION (BY ALL SOURCES) 47.0 ADDITIONAL AREA THAT CAN BE BROUGHT UNDER IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE 20.1 SOURCE: AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS OF PAKISTAN 2007-08 INDUS RIVER DISPUTED TERRITORY KABUL RIVER Chenab River Jhelum River Ravi River Indus River Sutlej River LEGEND MOUNTAINS DESERTS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION AREA THAT CAN BE BROUGHT UNDER IRRIGATION Sindh 3.4 MA Punjab 3.8 MA KPK 3.0 MA Baloch. 9.9 MA TOTAL 20.1 MA ARABIAN SEA (Barren land available if water can be conserved)

  5. WATER POTENTIAL & REQUIREMENTS Water Availability (Avg 1976-2009) 138.70 MAF Water Requirement for the Country with reference to Accord 1991 (117 MAF) Average Water Availability 2000 – 2010 105 MAF (Currently Pakistan is suffering from water shortage cycle)

  6. RESERVOIR CAPACITIES (MAF) (Nearly a fourth of the Reservoirs silted; need to construct Diamer Basha Dam to augment lost storage)

  7. NEW STORAGES CURRENTLY BEING DEVELOPED

  8. Security ? Dimensions • Stand alone • Integrated • State • Public • Society • local

  9. Security Horizons • Conflict • Disturbance • Law & Order • Institutional Collapse • Revolution • War

  10. ImpactFactors • Scarcity • Prestige • Independence • Sovereignty • Economics • Development • Poverty • Hunger • Survival

  11. Magnitude • Survival • MDGs • PRSP • life

  12. Solution • Equity • Sovereignty • sustainability

  13. Vision • water for All

  14. Global Perspective • 97% saline water - 3% fresh water. 2% fresh water caped in glaciers and icebergs. Out of remaining 1%, 20% cannot be captured – inaccessible. • Remaining fresh water globally available is only 0.8% and is finite. • This 0.8% amounts to 43,659 BCM. In case it is uniformly distributed over the globe, it is in abundance. 43,659 BCM ÷ 6.5 billion people = 6,716 m3/person • Problem: Variability in space and time – rain forest on one hand and desert on other.

  15. Regional Perspective South East Asia Total water availability is 6,698 BCM i.e. 15.3% of the world water resources against 8.6% of world population (516 million). Per capita water availability is 12,980 m3.

  16. Regional Perspectivecont… South West Asia 90% of population lives under water stress conditions – uses 10% more water than fresh water available. Massive desalinization.

  17. Regional Perspectivecont… North East Asia Total water availability is 3,351 BCM i.e. 7.7% of world water against 25% of world population. Per capita water availability is 2,221 m3. Country wise water availability, Mongolia 138,400 m3/capita; Japan 3,125 m3/capita; R. Korea 2,389 m3/capita and China 2,152 m3/capita.

  18. Regional Perspectivecont… South Asia Total water availability 3,900 BCM/year i.e. only 9% of world water against 25% of world population. Per capita water availability is 2,600 m3/person. India has 1/6th of world population and 1/25th water resources i.e. 1,746 BCM with average of 1,740 m3/person but the variability is extensive. In Brahmaputra – Barak Basin per capita water availability is 13,400 m3 to about only 300 m3 in the Sabarmati Basin in western part of India.

  19. Pakistan Perspective Average rainfall Pakistan is one of the world’s most arid countries – over 75% of it receives rainfall less than 250 mm annually and 20% of it less than 125 mm. The population and economy are heavily dependent on an annual influx into Indus River System of about 154.88 MAF of water mostly derived from snow and glacier melt.

  20. WATER AVAILABILITY IN PAKISTAN • Surface Water 154.88 MAF • Ground Water: • Total Area 39.5 Million Acres • Saline 24.7 Million Acres • Fresh Water 14.8 Million Acres • Total Quantity Available 59 MAF • Present Extraction 50 MAF • Balance 9 MAF (economic limit) 22

  21. SEASON-WISE & ANNUAL CANAL HEAD WITHDRAWALS 1962-63 TO 2002-03 (MAF) 23

  22. CANAL WATER DIVERSION Vs POPULATION GROWTH AFTER TARBELA 106 104 AFTER MANGLA INDEPENDENCE 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 225 216.8 POPULATION GROWTH 178 5650 m3 (1951) 138 PER CAPITA AVAILABILITY CANAL DIVERSIONS (MAF) POPULATION ( MILLIONS) PER CAPITA AVAILABILITY (M) 3 POPULATION ( MILLIONS) 98.6 WATER SHORT COUNTRY AFTER TREATY BEFORE TREATY 885 m3 2020 1350 m3 2002 550 m3 2025 1700 m3 1992 1000 m3 2012 1951 1961 1972 1981 1992 2002 2012 2020 2025 24 YEARS

  23. water used for Irrigation India 93% Pakistan 90% China 87% Egypt 85% Italy 59% Japan 50% • Korea 46% • USA 42% • Germany 20% • France 15% • UK 3% 25

  24. Water for a Balanced Diet • 1,300,000 liters/person/year • (i.e. 3356 liters/day which is 70 times more than 50 liter/person/day for domestic purposes) • Water requirement to produce one loaf - 550 liters (10 times more than 50/liters/person/day) • Water required to produce 100 grams of beef - 7,000 liters • (140 times more than 50/liters/person/day)

  25. A High Risk Water Environment Pakistan’s dependence on single river system is highly vulnerable and has little flexibility as compared to most of the countries enjoyed by virtue of multiple river basins and diversity of water resources. If the water/sediment/salt system of the Indus Basin goes badly wrong, that’s it – and unfortunately we are very close to it. 27

  26. No Additional Water There is no additional water to be injected into the system and there is no feasible intervention which would enable Pakistan to mobilize appreciable more water that it now uses. Pakistan uses more than 90% of water for irrigation. Non-agricultural water uses are going to increase manifold in future. 28

  27. SEASONAL CARRY OVER KHARIF TO RABI (INCREASE OF 6 MAF) (DECREASE OF 3 MAF) (INCREASE OF 13 MAF) 29

  28. Indus Basin Irrigation System Annual Salt inflow/outflow Total brought into the System 33.0 M. Tons Total Salt deposited in Indus Basin Irrigation System 24.0 M. Tons Wash out of System 9.0 M. Tons Salt deposited in Punjab 13.6 M. Tons Salt deposited in Sindh 10.4 M. Tons 30

  29. Productivity Per Unit of Water Canada 8.72 kg/ m3 USA 1.56 kg/ m3 China 0.82 kg/ m3 India 0.39 kg/ m3 Pakistan 0.13 kg/ m3 31

  30. Productivity Per Unit of Land France 7.60 T/ha Egypt 5.99 T/ha Saudi Arabia 5.36 T/ha Punjab (India) 4.80 T/ha Punjab (Pak) 2.30 T/ha Pakistan (Average) 2.24 T/ha 32

  31. GDP Contribution Per M3 of Water World (Average) 8.60 US$ Developed Countries 30-40 US$ Malaysia 10 US$ Pakistan 0.34 US$ 33

  32. Per Capita Storage America 6,150 m3/person Australia 5,000 m3/person Pakistan 132 m3/person 34

  33. Carry over Capacity Egypt (Aswan) 1,000 days (Niles) America 900 days (Colorado) Australia 600 days South Africa 500 days (Orange River) India 120 to 220 days Pakistan 30 days 35

  34. Upto April 2008, 1,017 MAF of water has gone to the sea unutilized over the last 30 years which is equivalent to 10 years of canal withdrawals. In monitory terms, the value of unutilized water is US$ 149 billion after deducting 300 MAF required for environmental purposes. • For better water management, 40% of total water availability is required for storage, Pakistan’s storage capacity is only about 7% of total available water.

  35. Points for Urgent Attention • Climate Change • Indus Waters Treaty • Transboundary pollution • Pakistan should demand minimum environmental flows for eastern rivers to protect biodiversity. • Kabul River contributes 21 MAF • Pakistan needs both software and hardware solutions for future water management.

  36. Holistic Solutions • GOAL 1: Promote water as a key part of sustainable national development. • GOAL 2: Address critical development challenges. • GOAL 3: Reinforce knowledge sharing and communications. • GOAL 4: Build a more effective participation

  37. Thanks

  38. Surface Storages in India Total Completed Large Dams 4,291 Nos. Presently under Construction Dams 676 Nos. Total Existing Storage Capacity 323 BCM Additional Storage required by 2050 180 BCM Additional Dams to be constructed by the year 2050 2,500 Nos. Total Hydro Power Developed 13,000 MW Total Potential Available 84,000 MW China has constructed 84,000 dams since 1949 out of which 24,000 are large dams. 42

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