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Hydropower Flashpoints and Water Security Challenges in Central Asia

Hydropower Flashpoints and Water Security Challenges in Central Asia. Bakhtiyor Mukhammadiev US Embassy Tashkent. These slides are personal opinion only. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the U.S. Government. Central Asian ESTH News.

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Hydropower Flashpoints and Water Security Challenges in Central Asia

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  1. Hydropower Flashpoints and Water Security Challenges in Central Asia Bakhtiyor Mukhammadiev US Embassy Tashkent These slides are personal opinion only. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the U.S. Government.

  2. Central Asian ESTH News Tajikistan Offended By Russian Leader's Remarks On Water Use In Region 02/11/2008 Regional Politics Get In Way of Bringing Power to the People 03/03/2007 World Bank Group Statement on Water-Energy in Central Asia 03/11/2010 Tajikistan Warns Of Possible Water Shortage Crisis 01/21/2009 Tajikistan: Water Is Weapon In Uzbek Electricity Talks 01/21/2009 Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Build Hydro Power Station, Despite Uzbekistan’s Objection 04/12/2009 Uzbekistan Will Halve Energy To Tajikistan 02/12/2010 Examination of Allies: What Side of the Fence will Moscow Take in the Water Dispute? 04/22/2006 Battle Lines Drawn In Central Asian Water Dispute 04/19/2006 Thaw in Tajik-Uzbek Relations 03/12/2009 Tajik President Asks UN to Help Solve Central Asia’s Water Problem 04/15/2007

  3. The Amu-Darya River Basin

  4. The Syr-Darya River Basin

  5. Total water resources: 116 km3/year 50% 52% 25% 20% 10% 10% 2% 5% 11% 1% 5%/ 12%

  6. Central Asia Statistics

  7. New dimensions of regional security in Central Asia 90% and 95% of energy in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan come from hydro Energy Security Food Security Water Security Food security/Water scarcity/Access to Water/Pro-poor Irrigation Environ-mental Security Environmental refugees (Environment and Security Initiative) Water security is a common feature

  8. NATION-BUILDING HISTORY LEGACY RELIGION ECONOMICS POLITICS SECURITY GEOPOLITICS Understanding Central Asia

  9. Crumbling infrastructure Planned Projects Resource sovereignty Access to water Environmental security Drought & floods Rivalry Energy security Water for Afghanistan Climate change Declaratory regionalism Understanding Water in Central Asia

  10. Amu-Darya and Syr-Darya Rivers (116 km3) Total (129 km3=100%) Natural losses (6.5 km3=5%) Return water 33 km3=29% Back to rivers (18 km3=55%) Reused water (5 km3=15%) Discharged into depressions (10 km3=30%) Aral Sea Basin Water Balance Groundwater (13 km3) Total withdrawals (120 km3=93%) Irrigation, 90% Industry, 5.4% Drinking, 3.2% Env. flow, 1.4% Aral Sea (N/A)

  11. Date/place Parties Title Governing Rules Institutions 02/18/1992 Almaty, Kazakhstan Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan Agreement on Cooperation in Management of Use and Protection of Water Resources of Interstate Sources Soviet time water allocation rules prevail; joint decision making; not to cause harm ICWC; BWO Amu-Darya; BWO Syr-Darya 03/26/1993 Kyzylorda, Kazakhstan Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan Agreement on Joint Activities to Address the Aral Sea Issues Sustainable development; obligation to cooperate ICAS/IFAS 01/16/1996 Charjev, Turkmenistan Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan Agreement on Cooperation in Water Management Issues 50/50 division of Amu-Darya flow at Kerki river post TM Ministry of Water, UZ Ministry of Ag and Water 04/17/1998 Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan Agreement on Use of Water and Energy Resources of Syr-Darya Basin Irrigation-energy trade-offs BWO Syr-Darya UDC Energy Central Asian Water Related Agreements

  12. International Fund to Save the Aral Sea (IFAS) President Interstate Commission for Water Coordination Interstate Commission for Sustainable Development BWO Syr-Darya (Tashkent) BWO Amu-Darya (Urgench) Secretariat Scientific Information Center (Ashgabat) Scientific-Information Center (Tashkent) Central Asian Regional Institutions HEADS OF STATE COUNCIL EC IFAS Branch in Nukus, Uzbekistan IFAS Board of Directors IFAS Executive Committee (Almaty) EC IFAS Branch in Kyzylorda, Kazakhstan EC IFAS Branch in Dashauz, Turkmenistan

  13. SANGTUDA 1 & 2 Status: Under construction Purpose: Hydropower Duration: 2005-2010 Capacity: 670+220 MW Cost: 650 and 182 Million USD TAJIKISTAN 1 ROGHUN UZBEKISTAN Shurob 2 ROGHUN Status: Under construction Purpose: Hydropower, irrigation Volume: 13 km3 Capacity: 3600 MW Cost: 2.2-5 Billion USD NUREK 3 Baipaza 4 TURKMENISTAN DASHTIJUM 5 Sangtuda-1 6 Status: Proposed Purpose: Hydropower, irrigation Volume: 17.6 km3 Capacity: 4000 MW Cost: 3.2 Billion USD Sangtuda-2 7 Golovnaya Perepadnaya 8 10 DASHTIJUM Tsentralnaya 9 AFGHANISTAN

  14. Unilateral developmentsSyr-Darya Basin: Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan Koksaray Reservoir in KZ Kambarata I&II Projects in KG Status: Under construction Status: Under construction Status: Completed Purpose: Hydropower Volume: 4.7 km3 Duration: 2005-2010 Capacity: 190+360 MW Cost: 2.2 Billion USD Purpose: Re-regulation of upstream winter releases Volume: 2.5 km3 Duration: 2004-20-- Cost: N/A Purpose: Re-regulation of upstream winter releases Volume: 3 km3 Duration: 2007-2010 Cost: 200 Million USD Fergana Reservoirs in UZ

  15. Karashor Depression: Golden Century Lake site Status: Under construction Purpose: Agricultural development Duration: 2002-2022 Volume: 132 km3 Cost: 9 Billion USD Golden Century Canal Amudarya River Karakum Canal Unilateral developmentsGolden Century Lake of Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Afghanistan Iran

  16. [possible] Unilateral DevelopmentAmu-Darya River Basin: Afghanistan STATUS-QUO • According to the 1946 agreement between the Soviet Union and Afghanistan, Afghanistan is entitled to use up to 9 km3/yr from the River Pyanj, a tributary of the Amu-Darya. Afghanistan currently uses about 2 km3/yr. POTENTIAL IMPACT • Full use of Afghanistan’s quota for water use from the Pyanj (9 km3/yr), fixed by the 1946 agreement, could radically change the water flow along the Pyanj and would have a significant impact on the downstream flow regime of the Amu-Darya. PROPOSED PROJECTS • Proposed 15% expansion of irrigated lands in the northern Afghanistan region, which contribute to the Amudarya flow, may require an increase of withdrawals by 6 km3/yr.

  17. Riparian positions: TAJIKISTAN Address by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan Hamrokhon Zarifi at the 17th OSCE Ministerial Council Meeting, Athens, 12/01/2009 • “…Tajikistan has the right to develop hydropower potential along its domestic waterways. These include the Vakhsh River…” • “…The construction of Roghun Hydropower Plant on the Vakhsh River will not harm downstream interests…the Vakhsh River is responsible for only a small part of Amu-Darya flow, upstream from the existing Nurek dam, so it cannot hold back water…” Address by the President Emomali Rakhmon at the Roghun HPP site, 10/29/2009 President of Tajikistan Mr. Emomali Rakhmon, UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York • “…Tajikistan worried about inefficiencies in water use in downstream countries. Total surface area of reservoirs in downstream countries is more than the Aral Sea, and more are being constructed…” Remarks of President Emomali Rakhmon at the IFAS Heads of State Summit, Almaty, 04/28/2009 • “…Largest share of Central Asian water originates in Tajikistan…Tajikistan has a vested interest in maintaining adequate water. Tajikistan is concerned about global warming and glacial melt, which affects water supply…” Address by the President Emomali Rakhmon at the Roghun HPP site, 10/29/2009

  18. Riparian positions: KYRGYZSTAN • “…in such a difficult time for Kyrgyzstan, a launching of the first hydro-generator of Kambarata HPP-1 is a historic event for the country. Construction and launch of this HPP demonstrates the power of our country, and we do not intend to abandon the constructions of Kambarata-2 and Kambarata-1…We will be able to live well in both winter and summer, and are increasing our [electricity] export potential…Of course, we will cooperate on this plan with Uzbekistan…” • “…Kyrgyzstan is interested in rational utilization of water resources, in raising its investment potential [for hydropower projects], environmental safety and development of alternative energy sources, implementation of regional hydropower projects under the CASAREM, and primarily in the construction of transmission lines Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan…” Kyrgyzstan's acting President Roza Otunbayeva presses a symbolic red button to start the first unit of hydroelectric power station Kambarata-2, 08/30/2010 Remarks of President Ms. Roza Otunbayeva at the launching ceremony of the first aggregate of the Kambarata-2 HPP, 08/30/2010 Remarks of Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyz Republic Mr. Ruslan Kazakbaev, UN MDG Summit, 09/27/2010, New York

  19. Riparian positions: UZBEKISTAN • “…New hydropower projects in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan violate existing agreements and are against to international law. Both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan must receive prior-consent of downstream countries…” Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 02/23/2008 • “…Uzbekistan stands firm on the need for binding international examination of all hydropower projects on transboundary rivers…such examinations must be carried out under the aegis of UN and include independent authoritative experts…” Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/14/2009 President of Uzbekistan Mr. Islam Karimov, UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York • “…In accordance with international customary law, upstream countries are under obligation not to cause significant harm and to prevent, control and reduce transboundary impacts…” Address by President Islam Karimov to the participants of the International Aral Sea Conference, Tashkent, 04/11/2008 • “… …The resolution of [water/energy] problems is the exclusive prerogative of the countries in the region… the interferences of the third parties/countries in water/energy problems of Central Asia is unacceptable…” Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/14/2009 • “…Upstream countries can save energy through electricity loss reduction programs...[or] consider building smaller hydropower plants…” Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/24/2009

  20. Riparian positions: KAZAKHSTAN • “…Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, being countries downstream of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers, need guarantees [offered by international feasibility studies]…It is a question of water supply to millions of people…Until the results of [international] expert testing are available, no dam should be built…” Remarks of President Nazarbayev, Press Briefing with President Karimov, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 03/18/2010 President of Kazakhstan Mr. Nursultan Nazarbayev, United Nations • “…"Over time, this [water] problem may turn out very large (and) it is necessary to secure drinking water for the entire Central Asian region…Why not recall a project to divert the flow of Siberian rivers into Central Asia?…” Remarks of President Nazarbayev, Press Briefing with President Medvedev, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Kazakhstan, 09/08/2010 • “…it is important for Kazakhstan to address the issues of joint management and rational use of transboundary water resources of the [Central Asian] region through co-financing of regional projects of water management…” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan www.mfa.kz

  21. Riparian positions: TURKMENISTAN • “…we must resolve these issues exclusively based on the universally accepted norms and principles of international law taking into account the interests of all States in the region and with participation of international organizations…” Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov, IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009 • “…the need for mandatory and transparent independent international technical, economic and environmental impact assessment of hydropower projects on rivers at their early design stages…” Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov, IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009 • “… Turkmenistan stands ready to supply neighbors with natural gas, LNG, and electricity. Once we solve the problem of energy, we can easterly solve the problem of water…” President of Turkmenistan Mr. Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov, UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov, IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009 • “…Turkmenistan urges the countries in the region - Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan to make a joint compensation to help [Tajikistan] resolve its energy problems, in exchange for a commitment to maintain the current level of water [Tajikistan] draws from cross-border rivers...” Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov at the meeting with President Rakhmon, 10/01/2009

  22. Planned Roghun HPP & Reservoir on the Vakhsh River (Embassy Dushanbe) Roghun site 2008 • Roghun designed in Tashkent by Soviet experts. Built – like Nurek – to withstand 9+ earthquake; • Vakhsh cascade designed as a 2-reservoir system: upstream (Roghun) dam operates in energy mode, the downstream (Nurek) in irrigation mode; • Roghun would open up hundreds of thousands of hectares of land for cultivation in Uzbekistan; • Tajikistan would never harm downstream neighbors – anyway, Roghun upstream from Nurek, so cannot hold back water; • Bigger problem in Central Asia is unchecked construction of new downstream reservoirs. This is killing the Aral Sea; • Tajikistan forced to provide for its own energy needs because it is excluded from regional exchanges. Roghun site 2010 Nurek Dam Nurek reservoir

  23. Government of Uzbekistan Expert Opinion on Roghun (November 2008) • Engineering design of Roghun HPS violates international rules; • Amu-Darya’s natural runoff plainly matches irrigation requirements (80% of the runoff occurs from Apr thru Oct); • Roghun operation in energy mode would create water shortages downstream (22% less water on average); • The dam site is located within seismically active zone; construction of the dam can provoke stronger earthquakes; destruction of the dam caused by earthquake would flood large populated areas in TJ, AF, UZ and TU; • Large winter releases would cause land deterioration in lowlands; • Reduced summer releases would cause salt accumulation in large irrigated fields downstream; • $4.1 billion/year direct economic damages from loss of grain and cotton yields, processing and fishing industry; • $146.5 million environmental damages (reduction of riparian woodlands, pastures, extinction of animal and bird species); • Economic damages would affect 12 million people in Uzbekistan and 6 million people in Turkmenistan; • Energy regime of Roghun would worsen potable water supply to 18 million people in downstream; • Alternative to the Roghun would be to construct small hydropower dams with daily regulation of storages.

  24. World Bank Roghun Project Assessment Studies - The Five-Point Program -

  25. 1991 2003 2001 1991 1999 1991 2004 2002 1992 1992 1992 2000 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2005 2006 2007-11 Timeline of Water-related Institutional and Treaty Events 1993: Commonwealth of Independent States 2001: Eurasian Economic Community 1998: UN Special Program for Economies of Central Asia 1994: Central Asian Economic Cooperation 2001: TW Framework Agreement between KZ and CN 2006: MoU between AF and TJ 2009: Heads of State Joint Statement 1995: Nukus Declaration of Heads of State 2000: KZ accedes to 1992 UNECE Water Convention Collapse of USSR 2010: Aral Sea Basin Program Phase III 1993: Kyzylorda Agreement: ICAS / IFAS 1998: Syrdarya Framework Agreement 2002: Dushanbe Declaration of Heads of State 1992: Almaty Agreement: ICWC, BWOs 1996: Amudarya Agreement between UZ and TU 2000: Chu-Talas Agreement between KG and KZ 2006: Framework Agreement on EP and SD in CA 1999: Agreements on (1) Hydrometeorology and (2) Parallel Operation of Energy Systems 2007: UZ accedes to 1992 UNECE and 1997 UN Water Conventions 1994: Aral Sea Basin Program Phase I 2002: Aral Sea Basin Program Phase II 1992: Economic Cooperation Organization 1997: Central Asian Economic Cooperation Organization 2001: Shanghai Cooperation Organization

  26. Our Bottom Line: During the next 10 years, many countries important to the United States will experience water problems—shortages, poor water quality, or floods—that will risk instability and state failure, increase regional tensions, and distract them from working with the United States on important US policy objectives. Between now and 2040, fresh water availability will not keep up with demand absent more effective management of water resources. Water problems will hinder the ability of key countries to produce food and generate energy, posing a risk to global food markets and hobbling economic growth. As a result of demographic and economic development pressures, North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia will face major challenges coping with water problems.

  27. The Aral Sea 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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